Inflation in Jamaica for 2016, fell to the lowest level in decades, with the Consumer Price Index showing inflation rate at just 1.72 percent for the year. The findings were released by Statistical Institute of Jamaica.
The inflation rate for 2017 could be even lower than that of 2016, if the historical patterns repeat. The 2016 out turn compares with 3.7 percent recorded for 2015. The rate for December 2016 was 0.3 percent and is just below the average of fiscal year-to-date movement of 3.1 percent to December 2016.
The rate for 2016 would have been even less, had it not been for increased taxes imposed by the government on a series of items in the first half of the year. The added increase from taxes should not recur in 2017 as revenues are running well ahead of target for the 2017 fiscal year and a pickup in growth should see a healthy increase in revenues for the new fiscal year.
In 2016, inflation in Jamaica, benefited from a continuation in tight fiscal policies, pursued by the government, but it would have been negatively affected by slippage in the exchange rate of the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar. Moderation in energy prices helped as well.
Going forward, the country should continue to benefit from relatively low energy prices a more stable exchange rate of the Jamaican dollar as foreign exchange inflows remain strong.
Data going back to 2002 suggests that the first two months of the year tend to have flat to negative inflation. In 2015 inflation remained below the December 2014 level until April and just inching ahead in May. In 2016 it remained below the December 2015 level until July.
Jamaican stocks cede ground on Tuesday
The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, ceded some grounds to close out Tuesday ‘s trading. Advancing stocks being just below decliners.
At the close the All Jamaica Composite Index lost 118.15 points to close at 213,521.41 and is just 9 points adrift from the all-time high reached on January 6. The JSE Market Index slipped 105.65 points to finish at 195,300.68 and the JSE combined index fell 50.23 points to close at 209,536.40.
The market closed with 40 securities changing hands, 16 stocks gained and 11 declined in the overall market, including 6 stocks rising and 5 falling, in the junior market.
At the close with 4,982,675 units valued at $90,430,065 changed hands, compared to 24,599,887 units valued at $157,873,358 changing hands on Monday. Of the stocks traded, the junior market accounted for 1,234,173 units, changing hands, valued at $7,873,809.
The average trade for the day in the main market ended at 138,833 shares compared to an average of 688,233 units traded on Monday. The average for the month to date, is 489,448 versus 840,062 units on the previous trading day, well below the average of 549,379 units, December ended with.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 7 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 3 with lower offers.
In market activity, Berger Paints ended trading of 32,268 shares to close at $6, Cable and Wireless ended with 1,623,683 units at $1.30, after gaining 15 cents, Caribbean Cement ended with a fall of $1 while trading 255,458 shares to close at $32, Carreras closed at $66.50 with 7,191 shares changing hands after falling by 25 cents. Grace Kennedy had 112,010 units trading, with the price rising 55 cents, to close at $40.65, Jamaica Broilers fell 88 cents and closed at $14.62 with 54,101 shares changing hands, Jamaica Producers traded 30,807 shares to end at $9.50, Jamaica Stock Exchange traded 72,932 shares, to end at $5.60, JMMB Group traded 79,284 units to end at $15.20. Kingston Wharves gained 51 cents in trading 11,095 units to close at 52 weeks’ high of $25.51, National Commercial Bank fell 25 cents swapping 10,672 shares to close at $51.75, investors swapped 877,115 units of 138 Student Living at $4.50. Pan Jam Investment traded 47,415 units with the price jumping $3.40 to end at a $30, Portland JSX traded 3,242 units to end with a loss of 80 cents at a 52 weeks’ low of $10.20. Pulse Investments traded 24,651 units and gained 50 cents to close at $4.50, but ended trading with the offer at $4. Radio Jamaica traded 337,368 shares to close at $1.28, Sagicor Group closed with 4,900 shares changing hands with a rise of 9 cents at $28.30, Scotia Group with 49,400 shares changing hands, rose 50 cents to close at $36.50, Scotia Investments fell 1 cent with 16,232 units trading, to end at $32.49. Seprod traded 21,012 shares but lost 89 cents in closing at $29.51, Supreme Ventures lost 14 cents in trading 37,216 units at $5.15 and Proven Investments traded 14,970 ordinary shares to close at 21.99 US cents.
9 unbroken record close for juniors
At the close of trading on Tuesday the prices of 6 stocks rose, 5 declined with 18 securities trading, compared to 15 trading on Monday. Volume of stocks traded dropped 83 percent, from Monday’s level, ending with a volume of just 1,234,173 units, changing hands, valued at $7,873,809, with a fall of 73 percent from $28,781,077 on Monday.
An average of 68,565 units with an average value of $437,434 traded, compared to 492,938 units with an average value of $1,918,738 on the preceding trading day. The average for the month to date is 117,445 units with an average value of $573,325 versus 122,333 units with an average value of $586,914 on Monday. The average for December is 131,147 units, at an average of $672,488.
The market closed with 5 stocks with bids higher than their last sale and 1 with a lower offer, than their last sale.
At the close of trading, AMG Packaging shed $2 to close at $33 with 12,972 units changing hands, Blue Power gained 40 cents and closed with 3,852 units changing hands at a new record of $37, Caribbean Cream closed trading at $7 with 53,392 units trading. Caribbean Flavours rose 5 cents with just 560 units being exchanged at $12, Caribbean Producers, traded 35,030 shares and rose 20 cents to $4, Consolidated Bakeries fell 20 cents in trading 19,200 shares to close at $2.40, Derrimon Trading ended at $5.50 with 19,751 shares changing hands, after slipping by 10 cents. Dolphin Cove ended at $14.50 with 3,000 shares trading, General Accident Insurance traded 211,562 shares to end at $2.90, Honey Bun with 78,928 shares changing hands, to close at $6.20, Jamaican Teas climbed 45 cents and ended with 5,000 shares being exchanged at a new record of $5.75. Investors bought 329,001 Jetcon Corporation shares with a gain of 50 cents to a new high of $9.50. Lasco Distributors ended with 28,000 units trading, to close at $7.20, Lasco Financial had 31,990 shares changing hands, to end at $3.65, with a 5 cents loss Lasco Manufacturing ended at $5.15, with 52,300 units trading. Medical Disposables closed at $4.50 with 4,650 shares changing hands, Paramount Trading ended with 154,637 shares changing hands at $3, with a loss of 12 cents and tTech traded 190,348 shares and rose 50 cents to close at record high of $6.50.
More losses than gains on TTSE
Activity on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Tuesday closed with 11 securities changing hands compared to 13 on Monday with 2 stocks advancing, 4 declining and 5 remaining unchanged.
Trading resulted in an exchange of 305,919 units valued at $1,570,666 compared to 287,730 shares valued at $3,325,149 on Monday.
The Composite Index gained 0.09 points to 1,215.80 points, the All T & T Index was down 0.42 points to 1,836.55 points, the Cross Listed Index was up 0.08 points to 79.57 points.
IC bid-offer Indicator|The Investor’s Choice bid-offer ended with 8 stocks with bids higher than last selling prices and 7 with lower offers.
Gains| JMMB Group gained 3 cents to close trading at a 52 weeks’ high of 95 cents with an exchange of 135,700 shares and West Indian Tobacco added 1 cent, closing at $127.03 with only 500 units changing hands.
< Strong> Losses| strong> Grace Kennedy, with 40,210 shares traded, lost 2 cents to close at $2.65, Guardian Holdings was down 1 cent to $13 with transactions of 23,372 units being executed, valued at $304,255. Scotiabank closed at $58.70 and ending with a loss of 5 cents as 957 shares changed hands and Trinidad & Tobago NGL declined 15 cents to $20.30, traded 27,365 units valued at $555,565.
Firm Trades| Clico Investment closed at $22.60 with 2,350 shares changing hands, First Citizens, with an exchange of just 40 units, closed at $34.97, Prestige Holdings traded 731 shares in closing at $11. Scotia Investments was unchanged at $2.10 with trades of 30,000 units and Trinidad Cement closed at $5.15 with 44,694 shares switching owners.
Cable & Wireless at $1.40 in early trading
Cable & Wireless climbs 25 cents to $1.40 in early trading, with 382,466 units changing hands, but the main market indices slipped while the junior index just inched up in early trading on Tuesday.
Blue Power traded at a new high of $37 with 3,852 units changing hands as investors continue to react positively to an announcement by Jetcon Corporation of a likely dividend and stock split droving the stock up to a new high of $10.05 in trading 139,710 units, tTech rose 50 cents to an all-time high of $6.50 with 150,500 shares changing hands. Investors sharply marked AMG Packaging down $8.50 to $26.50 with 6,358 units as they responded to lower profits for the year to November,
Securities changing hands exceeded that on Monday with 36 traded at 10:50 am, compared to 32 on Monday. A total of 14 securities advanced and 9 declined, resulting in a volume of 2,005,791 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $21,705,565, compared of 12,710,223 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $68,889,688 on Monday. The average number of shares traded, amount to 55,716 units versus 397,194 units on Monday.
The all Jamaica Composite Index fell 246.53 points to 213,393.03, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index lost 220.44 points to 195,185.89, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index climbed 185.47 points to 209,401.16 and the junior market index rose 1.84 points to 2,763.30.
TTSE gains beat declines 2 to 1 – Monday
Trading resulted in an exchange of 287,730 units valued at $3,325,149 compared to 166,719 shares valued at $2,032,545 on Friday.
The Composite Index gained 0.16 points to 1,215.71, the All T&T Index lost 0.69 points to 1,836.97 and the Cross Listed Index rose 0.14 points to 79.49.
IC bid-offer Indicator|The Investor’s Choice bid-offer ended with 6 stocks with bids higher than last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
Gains| Clico Investments added 1 cent to close at $22.60 with of 8,000 shares changing hands, Guardian Holdings closed at $13.01, adding 1 cent with an exchange of 212,389 shares valued at $2,761,059. National Commercial Bank closed at a 52 weeks’ high of $3.12 with a gain of 2 cents and 10,000 units changing owners and Trinidad Cement climbed 5 cents to a 52 weeks’ high of $5.15 with 4,000 units traded.
Losses| Massy Holdings lost 49 cents to close at $51.50 with 355 shares being exchanged and Trinidad & Tobago NGL closed at $20.45, down 5 cents with 2,595 shares changing owners.
Firm Trades| Grace Kennedy closed at $2.67 with 5,700 units changing hands, Republic Financial Holdings, with an exchange of 63 shares, closed at $108.43. Sagicor Financial held firm at $8.10 with 20,952 units being traded, Scotia Investments was unchanged at $2.10 with trades of 18,051 units, Scotiabank exchanged a mere 25 units to close at $58.75, L.J. Williams exchanged 5,400 shares, closing at 66 cents and West Indian Tobacco closed at $127.02 with 200 shares changing hands.
Jamaican stocks jump in early trading
Investors seem to be reacting positively to an announcement by Jetcon Corporation of a likely dividend and stock split as they drove the stock up by a $1 to a new high of $8 in trading 171,500 units, shortly after opening and shot up to $9 where trading is frozen for an hour with 172,334 units trading in all. Caribbean Producers, traded 500,000 shares and rose 40 cents to $4, General Accident Insurance traded 4,413,793 shares at $2.90, tTech rose 10 cents to $6 with 180,684 shares changing hands, Lasco Manufacturing had 1,600,000 units trading at $5.08. Caribbean Cream traded 6,000 at $6.55 and then recovered to $7 with 47,823 units trading. In the main market, Berger Paints traded 616,346 units to end at $6, Cable & Wireless climbed to $1.12 with 426,500 units and then fell back to $1.05 with 499,382 units, JMMB Group had 1,122,175 shares trading at $15.30 and Supreme Ventures lost 32 cents and traded 3,205,834 units at $5.08.
Volumes rose sharply with high volume in some selected stocks as 32 securities traded at 10:45 am, compared to 29 on Friday. A total of 11 securities advanced and 11 declined, resulting in a volume of 12,710,223 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $68,889,688, compared of 1,490,866 shares changing hands, carrying a value of $16,271,265 on Friday. The average number of shares traded, amount to 397,194 units versus 51,409 units on Friday.
The all Jamaica Composite Index jumped 2,246.61 points to 213,236.46, the Jamaica Stock Exchange Market Index gained 2,008.86 points 194,985.46, the Jamaica Stock Exchange combined index climbed 1,964.37 points to 209,277.56 and the junior market index rose 9.88 points above the record close on Friday to 2,769.35.
IS PE of 40 rational for junior stocks?
Yes, interest rates are at their lowest levels in decades, the Jamaican dollar hit rock bottom and bounced and business confidence as measured by the stock market, is at an all-time high. Even then there is little rationale for Cargo Handlers to be selling at a PE of 38 based on estimated 2017 earnings and worse, 51 times 2016 earnings.
IC Insider.com checked with an officer of the company, to get an understanding as to what was going on with the stock. Are profits running well ahead of 2016, there was no evidence of that, according to the company, operations are running close to that of 2016, was the response. Are there expansion plans on the table? The answer was there are no such plans in the works. Well, it could be the fact that the economy of Montego Bay where the company operates, is said to be growing at 7 percent per annum, be a factor. Some persons think it may be the dividend yield, but that makes no sense whatsoever as the yield would be a mere 2 percent, at the present stock price if all profit of 41 cents per share for 2016 were paid out. The only answer, the stock appears cheap to many, in dollar terms with the 10 to 1 stock split that took place in late 2016 and supply continues to be relatively low.
The stock is selling well in excess of the average market and the next highest valued in the junior market, Honey Bun that is at a PE of 21 based on 2016 earnings but a more moderate 14 times projected 2017 earnings.
It not surprising that Cargo Handlers heads the list of most overvalued stocks on both the main and junior market.
The company reported profit climbing 25 percent for their September quarter last year and 31 percent for the full year before taxation and could result in earnings of 55 cents per share for 2017. That would still leave it with an eye popping PE of 38 times current year’s earnings. At this level of PE investors are assuming that profits will be rising around 38 percent per annum for a while and that does not seem rational, if that were the case, then Access Financial should be selling around $137 per share, with earnings seemingly likely to grow around 30-40 percent per annum, for a while.