In the world of investing, it would be nice to find big winners at all times and invest in them just before their prices explode; that is not how stock markets work. Most investors need to buy and wait, to be rewarded with much higher prices later on. History is replete with many examples that show patience paying off handsomely.
In more recent times, some investors are demonstrating levels of exuberance in buying some stocks at excessive values that will take a long time to generate a reasonable return on investment.
In Jamaica, over the past few years, there are several stocks that recorded huge gains, allowing persons who hold them for years to make a bungle. One of the most celebrated is Lascelles DeMercado is no longer listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange having been acquired by Angostura in late 2007 for the equivalent of $643 or US$10.65 per share valuing the company at $61.7 billion. The stock traded at $4.25 (the equivalent of 10.5 cents) in 1983, with 2.4 million shares issued, valuing the group then at just $10 million and it gained 6,000 percent between 1983 and 2007. In other words, a $10,000 investment in 1983 would be worth over $6 million in 2007. How many persons saw that coming? Not many but some seasoned investors did. But Lascelles is not the only stock on the local market to provide rich rewards for Investors.
What the information above shows is that long term investment can be very rewarding. This is especially so for persons with limited time to spend monitoring their investment on an ongoing basis.
In 2017, this publication recited portions of an article captioned “Teachings from silly Unilever Investors.” “In 2013 ICInsider.com posted a report on the Unilever Caribbean, a company based in Trinidad and traded on the country’s stock exchange. “
”Since the report, the company stock has been on a downward slope after rising to a new record in 2013. On November 8, 2017, Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market listed Knutsford Express, after a long period of overvaluation relative to the market, dropped $2.75 as demand for the stock evaporated. Similarly, Cargo Handlers was pushed unrealistically to $30, only for it to currently be trading at $10, which is still above normal valuation. This latter stock came as a big buy recommendation on the way up by a brokerage house at the time.
“Unilever’s profit peaked in the period to September 2014 and started a downhill ride since, but investors kept on pushing the price higher until it peaked at an unrealistically high of TT$68.30 in December 2015.”
The IC Insider.com recommendation at the time was as follows: When stock prices rise much faster than the growth in profits, time out is needed to discover what is happening. That recommendation is as true then as it is now.
Knutsford Express
Notably, after several years, all three of the above stocks are currently trading well below their peak while many other stocks in the markets have gone on to record high prices. At the last trade Unilever is trading at TT$15.20, Cargo Handlers for a long time around $7, but recently hit $12 and Knutsford that traded at a high of $17, with a PE of 31 now trades at $8, with a PE closer to 40.
Investing in undervalued stocks that have products to support growth, as was the case in Lascelles shares, can pay rich dividends over time.
Investors should be mindful of chasing after the popular stocks that are fully valued or overpriced as was the case in the above three stocks that failed to perform in more than four years while others have delivered outstanding gains. That is why ICInsider.com has come up with a list of 10 stocks in both the Main and Junior Markets that, in our estimation, are good candidates for long-term investment for the next ten years. 
The numbers climbed to 11 each as we could not separate the 11th ones from the lists. The listings are a compilation based on inputs from some knowledgeable investors as well as ICInsider.com’s own assessment. The selections are based on an evaluation of the quality of management, products and services each company offers to their customers, and prospects for growth by these companies and the economies they service.
Most importantly, the analysis considers that management has the quality or will get the talent to steer the companies successfully over a ten year period.
Note is taken of the local economy, the commitment to fiscal surplus or modest deficit financing if at all for a number of years. This will lead to low interest rates and stimulate long term economic growth, subject to world conditions. In such an environment investors can look to invest for the long term rather than a few months or years.
Caribbean Producers almost made the cut with expected strong growth in the tourism sector in which it is a major player, but the historical performance since it was listed on the Junior Market in 2012, leaves doubt if management can in fact deliver predictable good returns for investors over the next ten years.
ICInsider.com was assisted with the selection by Karl Wynter and an individual investor, with years of managerial experience working for some leading groups in the Caribbean. Karl Wright former head of VM Group and individual investor, Ryan Strachan of GK Capital and Nigel Coke former investment advisor and trader at one of the leading Jamaican stockbrokers and an individual investor.
Coming in two separate articles are commentaries on the rationale for each selection.
JMMB Group increased 10 cents to $2.35 with an exchange of 101,627 stocks, Massy Holdings closed at $6 after the trading of 200,180 shares, National Enterprises ended unchanged at $2.85, with 42,810 stock units crossing the market. National Flour Mills lost 1 cent in closing at $1.84 with the swapping of 25 units, NCB Financial Group shed 8 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ low of $6.01, with 41,495 stocks clearing the market, One Caribbean Media rallied 5 cents to $4.20 after exchanging 20,000 stock units. Prestige Holdings shed 5 cents in ending at $7.05 after trading 19 shares, Republic Financial Holdings dropped 25 cents to $141.75, with 500 stock units crossing the exchange, Scotiabank remained at $78 after 3,415 units passed through the market. Trinidad & Tobago NGL lost 15 cents to end at $20.50 trading 4,011 stocks, Unilever Caribbean fell 1 cent in closing at $15.24 in trading 2,006 shares and West Indian Tobacco ended unchanged at $24 in exchanging 11,615 stocks.
A total of 19 securities were traded, down from 21 on Wednesday and ended with six rising, seven declining and six ending unchanged. NCB Financial ended at another 52 weeks’ low at the close. The Composite Index rose 4.80 points to 1,455.20, the All T&T Index gained 19.00 points to close at 2,109.44 and the Cross-Listed Index shed 1.46 points to end at 105.74.
JMMB Group ended unchanged at $2.25 in an exchange of 12,553 stock units, Massy Holdings rallied 10 cents in closing at $6 after 467,294 stocks crossed the exchange, National Flour Mills ended at $1.85 after exchanging 9,855 shares. NCB Financial Group dropped 11 cents to a 52 weeks’ low of $6.09 after 25,070 stocks changed hands, Republic Financial Holdings rose $2 to close at $142, after 134 shares crossed the market, Scotiabank finished at $78 trading 35 units. Trinidad & Tobago NGL climbed $1.62 to end at $20.65 with an exchange of 9,893 stock units, Trinidad Cement declined 5 cents in closing at $3.70 while exchanging 3,000 units, Unilever Caribbean advanced 5 cents to close at $15.25 after 44,465 stocks crossed the market and West Indian Tobacco remained at $24 in an exchange of 45,128 shares.
A total of 20 securities traded up from 19 on Monday, with seven rising, nine declining and four were unchanged. The Composite Index fell 2.73 points to 1,468.92, the All T&T Index shed 7.69 points to close at 2,130.59 and the Cross-Listed Index rose 0.36 points to settle at 106.55.
Massy Holdings fell 1 cent to $6 trading 515,384 units, National Enterprises declined 3 cents to $2.92 after trading 1,600 stocks, National Flour Mills popped 1 cent to close at $1.85 after exchanging 15,146 stock units. NCB Financial Group rallied 49 cents to a 52 weeks’ low of $6.50, with 14,528 shares crossing the market, One Caribbean Media climbed 5 cents in closing at $4.20 after 2,391 units changed hands, Prestige Holdings gained 10 cents to end at $7.10 with the swapping of 3,501 stock units. Republic Financial Holdings shed $1 to close at $140, with 1,213 stocks changing hands, Scotiabank advanced $7 in closing at 52 weeks’ high of $81.99 after 6,024 stocks crossed the market, Trinidad & Tobago NGL rose 33 cents in ending at $20.85 with the swapping of 13,935 shares. Unilever Caribbean dropped 5 cents to end at $15.20 with an exchange of 1,000 stock units and West Indian Tobacco ended unchanged at $24 in switching ownership of 26,928 units.
A total of 19 securities traded compared to 16 on Friday, with four rising, three declining and 12 remaining unchanged. The Composite Index declined 15.38 points to 1,471.65, the All T&T Index fell 10.30 points to finish at 2,138.28 and the Cross-Listed Index dropped 2.91 points to settle at 106.19.
National Flour Mills remained at $1.84 trading 7,791 units, NCB Financial Group fell 44 cents to a 52 weeks’ low of $6.01 in exchanging 39,765 stock units, One Caribbean Media ended unchanged at $4.15, with 2,648 stocks crossing the market. Point Lisas closed at $3.50 in an exchange of 2,000 stock units, Prestige Holdings lost 10 cents after ending at $7 after 4,465 shares crossed the market, Republic Financial Holdings gained $1 to end at $141 exchanging 282 stocks. Scotiabank ended at $74.99 trading 60 units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL finished at $20.52 with the swapping of 3,836 stocks, Unilever Caribbean ended unchanged at $15.25 trading 8,500 shares and West Indian Tobacco advanced 65 cents after ending at $24, with 9,253 units crossing the market.
JMMB Group finished at $2.25 after trading 10,397 shares, L.J. Williams B share finished at $1.95 in exchanging 20,363 units, Massy Holdings rose 20 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $6.95, as 223,689 units changed hands. National Flour Mills lost 3 cents to end at $1.84, with 73,192 shares crossing the exchange, NCB Financial Group shed 5 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ low of $6.45 with an exchange of 20,000 stock units, Republic Financial Holdings dropped $2 in ending at $140 after exchanging 12,803 stocks. Scotiabank slipped 1 cent in closing at $74.99 in an exchange of 440 stock units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL climbed 24 cents to end at $20.52, with 17,133 units clearing the market, Unilever Caribbean popped 5 cents to close at $15.25 in trading 4,000 shares and West Indian Tobacco shed 65 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $23.35 crossing the market 3,365 stocks.
A total of 17 securities traded similar to Wednesday, with three rising, nine declining and five ending unchanged. The Composite Index rose 1.64 points to some 1,491.40 and the Cross-Listed Index fell 2.59 points to settle at 111.53.
FirstCaribbean International Bank increased 7 cents to $6.08 with an exchange of 33,860 stock units, GraceKennedy finished at $6 in switching ownership of 1,480 units. Guardian Media remained at $3.04 in an exchange of 30 shares, JMMB Group declined 5 cents to $2.25 in an exchange of 81,566 stocks, Massy Holdings rallied 75 cents in ending at a 52 weeks’ high of $6.75with, 42,365 units changing hands. National Enterprises shed 5 cents to close at $2.95 with the swapping of 59,321 stocks, National Flour Mills dropped 8 cents in ending at $1.87 after trading 71,021 shares, NCB Financial Group fell 50 cents to a 52 weeks’ low of $6.50, with 21,133 stock units changing hands. One Caribbean Media lost 5 cents in closing at $4.15, with an exchange of 328 units, Republic Financial Holdings ended unchanged at $142, with 253 shares crossing the exchange, Scotiabank finished at $75 while exchanging 259 stocks. Trinidad & Tobago NGL shed 22 cents in ending at $20.28 after exchanging 24,721 stock units and Unilever Caribbean dropped 5 cents to close at $15.20 with 1,050 shares clearing the market.
A total of 17 securities traded compared to 21 on Tuesday, with four rising, four declining and nine remaining unchanged and resulted in 97 percent more shares, with 151 percent higher value trading than on Tuesday. 
GraceKennedy finished at $6 with the swapping of 169,515 stocks, JMMB Group rose 3 cents to close at $2.30 with 1,000 units changing hands, Massy Holdings climbed 70 cents ending at a 52 weeks’ high of $6 after exchanging 10,200 shares, following the 20 to 1 stock split. National Enterprises declined 9 cents in closing at $3 after 54,750 stocks crossed the market, National Flour Mills remained at $1.95 in trading one unit, Point Lisas ended at $3.50 after a mere 1 stock unit was traded. Prestige Holdings closed at $7.10 in an exchange of 500 stock units, Republic Financial Holdings popped $2 to $142 while exchanging 8,649 shares, Trinidad & Tobago NGL ended unchanged at $20.50 after trading 23,594 stocks. Unilever Caribbean fell 25 cents to $15.25 in switching ownership of 6,726 units and West Indian Tobacco dropped 70 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $24 after exchanging 4,885 stock units.
JMMB Group declined 3 cents in closing at $2.27 after trading 12,030 stocks, Massy Holdings ended at $106 with an exchange of 4,177 stock units, National Enterprises fell 1 cent in closing at $3.09 in switching ownership of 510 units. National Flour Mills finished at $1.95 with the swapping of 5,143 stocks, NCB Financial Group dropped 15 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ low of $7, with 5,728 shares changing hands, Prestige Holdings remained at $7.10 in exchanging 1 stock unit. Republic Financial Holdings fell 1 cent to $140 while exchanging 1,154 units, Scotiabank declined $1 to close at $75 after exchanging 701 units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL lost 50 cents to finish at $20.50, with 16,231 stock units crossing the market. Trinidad Cement advanced 5 cents in closing at $3.75 after exchanging 3,100 shares, Unilever Caribbean finished at $15.50 in exchanging 1,011 stocks and West Indian Tobacco rose 70 cents in closing at $24.70 with the swapping of 6,241 stocks.
A total of 15 securities were traded compared to 13 on Friday, with seven stocks rising, three declining and five remaining unchanged as one stock closed at a 52 weeks’ high and one at a low. The Composite Index rallied 7.94 points to 1,476.87, the All T&T Index popped 1.42 points to 2,094.56 and the Cross-Listed Index rose 2.09 points to settle at 114.35.
Massy Holdings remained at $106 trading 14,952 stock units, National Enterprises ended unchanged at $3.10 in exchanging 7,060 shares, NCB Financial Group gained 15 cents to close at $7.15, with 2,782 units crossing the exchange. Prestige Holdings ended at $7.10 with the swapping of 27 shares, Scotiabank rose $1 to a 52 weeks’ high of $76 in switching ownership of 6 stocks, Trinidad & Tobago NGL popped 14 cents in closing at $21 after 8,248 stock units changed hands. Trinidad Cement remained at $3.70 with an exchange of 6,628 shares, Unilever Caribbean finished at $15.50, with 2,298 stocks crossing the market and West Indian Tobacco lost 60 cents in ending at a 52 weeks’ low of $24 trading 34,567 stock units.
