10 stocks for 10 years

In the world of investing, it would be nice to find big winners at all times and invest in them just before their prices explode; that is not how stock markets work. Most investors need to buy and wait, to be rewarded with much higher prices later on. History is replete with many examples that show patience paying off handsomely.
In more recent times, some investors are demonstrating levels of exuberance in buying some stocks at excessive values that will take a long time to generate a reasonable return on investment.
In Jamaica, over the past few years, there are several stocks that recorded huge gains, allowing persons who hold them for years to make a bungle. One of the most celebrated is Lascelles DeMercado is no longer listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange having been acquired by Angostura in late 2007 for the equivalent of $643 or US$10.65 per share valuing the company at $61.7 billion. The stock traded at $4.25 (the equivalent of 10.5 cents) in 1983, with 2.4 million shares issued, valuing the group then at just $10 million and it gained 6,000 percent between 1983 and 2007. In other words, a $10,000 investment in 1983 would be worth over $6 million in 2007. How many persons saw that coming? Not many but some seasoned investors did. But Lascelles is not the only stock on the local market to provide rich rewards for Investors.
What the information above shows is that long term investment can be very rewarding. This is especially so for persons with limited time to spend monitoring their investment on an ongoing basis.
In 2017, this publication recited portions of an article captioned “Teachings from silly Unilever Investors.”  “In 2013 ICInsider.com posted a report on the Unilever Caribbean, a company based in Trinidad and traded on the country’s stock exchange. “
”Since the report, the company stock has been on a downward slope after rising to a new record in 2013. On November 8, 2017, Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market listed Knutsford Express, after a long period of overvaluation relative to the market, dropped $2.75 as demand for the stock evaporated. Similarly, Cargo Handlers was pushed unrealistically to $30, only for it to currently be trading at $10, which is still above normal valuation. This latter stock came as a big buy recommendation on the way up by a brokerage house at the time.
Unilever’s profit peaked in the period to September 2014 and started a downhill ride since, but investors kept on pushing the price higher until it peaked at an unrealistically high of TT$68.30 in December 2015.”
The IC Insider.com recommendation at the time was as follows: When stock prices rise much faster than the growth in profits, time out is needed to discover what is happening. That recommendation is as true then as it is now.

Knutsford Express

Notably, after several years, all three of the above stocks are currently trading well below their peak while many other stocks in the markets have gone on to record high prices. At the last trade Unilever is trading at TT$15.20, Cargo Handlers for a long time around $7, but recently hit $12 and Knutsford that traded at a high of $17, with a PE of 31 now trades at $8, with a PE closer to 40.
Investing in undervalued stocks that have products to support growth, as was the case in Lascelles shares, can pay rich dividends over time.
Investors should be mindful of chasing after the popular stocks that are fully valued or overpriced as was the case in the above three stocks that failed to perform in more than four years while others have delivered outstanding gains. That is why ICInsider.com has come up with a list of 10 stocks in both the Main and Junior Markets that, in our estimation, are good candidates for long-term investment for the next ten years. The numbers climbed to 11 each as we could not separate the 11th ones from the lists. The listings are a compilation based on inputs from some knowledgeable investors as well as ICInsider.com’s own assessment. The selections are based on an evaluation of the quality of management, products and services each company offers to their customers, and prospects for growth by these companies and the economies they service.
Most importantly, the analysis considers that management has the quality or will get the talent to steer the companies successfully over a ten year period.
Note is taken of the local economy, the commitment to fiscal surplus or modest deficit financing if at all for a number of years. This will lead to low interest rates and stimulate long term economic growth, subject to world conditions. In such an environment investors can look to invest for the long term rather than a few months or years.
Caribbean Producers almost made the cut with expected strong growth in the tourism sector in which it is a major player, but the historical performance since it was listed on the Junior Market in 2012, leaves doubt if management can in fact deliver predictable good returns for investors over the next ten years.
ICInsider.com was assisted with the selection by Karl Wynter and an individual investor, with years of managerial experience working for some leading groups in the Caribbean. Karl Wright former head of VM Group and individual investor, Ryan Strachan of GK Capital and Nigel Coke former investment advisor and trader at one of the leading Jamaican stockbrokers and an individual investor.

Coming in two separate articles are commentaries on the rationale for each selection. 

Profit jumps 32% in Q2 for Angostura

Profit before tax popped 20 percent for the Trinidad based Angostura Holdings, for the six-month to June 2021, to $74 million, up from $62 million in 2020 comparative period, while profit before tax rose 10 percent to $46 million from $42 million and profit after tax climbed 32 percent to $36.5 million for the quarter from $28 million and moved to 36 percent from $41 million in the half year to $55.6 million in 2021.

Angostura Holdings aged rum.

Revenue rose 6 percent to $218 million from $205 million for the quarter and was up 3 percent to $370 million for the half year from $358 million in 2020.
“Owing to improvement in the efficiency of the wastewater treatment facility, gross profit margins increased to 48 percent from 46 percent over the prior period as distillery alcohol production normalized in 2021 compared to 2020,” Terrence Bharath, chairman, advised shareholders in his report on the results. Cost of goods sold slipped by one percent to $117 million from $118 million in 2020 and for the half year rose at a slower pace than the increase in revenues after rising by just one percent to $194 million from $192 million in 2020. Gross profit popped 16 percent to $102 million from $87 million, while it rose 6 percent to $176 million for the six months to June 2021, from $167 million in 2020.

Angostura Bitters produced by the company.

Heineken offered J$31 per share for D&G in 2015 when the stock was trading at J$8 on the JSE.

Improvement in international markets, in terms of revenue and credit outlook, directly impacted the Expected Credit Loss Model resulting in a significant write back $2.7 million in the June quarter versus a write provision of $8 million in 2020 and write back of $4.2 million for the half year compared to a provision of $8.4 million in 2020.
Investment income rose to $3.5 million in the June quarter from $3 million last year and climbed from $5.5 million to $8 million for the six-month period.
“Revenue growth over the prior year was mainly driven by recovery in sale of bitters in the markets of Australasia, North America, Europe and the UK and rum in Europe, but faced more severe revenue challenges in the local Trinidad market,” the chairman informed shareholders.
Selling and marketing expenses rose sharply by 64 percent to $36.3 million in the June quarter and 15 percent for the half year to $67.5 million while Administrative expenses rose 20 percent to $25 million for the June quarter to $25 million and 7 percent for the six months to June to $44.6 million.
Current assets Net cash from operating activities delivered $71 million, but investing activities utilized $79 million, leaving negative funds flow of $10 million and $14 million in 2020.
Taxation slipped to $9.8 million from $14.2 million in the quarter and ended at $18. 4 million for the half year from $39 million in 2020.
Current assets amount to $1.08 billion and Current liabilities $104 million. Investments ended at $568 million and cash and equivalents closed the period at $51 million. Shareholders’ equity stood at $1.3 billion.
Earnings per share came in at 18 cents, up from 13 cents in 2020 for the June quarter and 27 cents for the half year versus 20 cents in 2020 and should end the year around 90 cents and would put the PE ratio at 18 times 2021 earnings at the last traded price of $16.48 on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange.
The Board of Directors approved an interim dividend of 9 cents per share to be paid on October 25.
The stock may be fully valued currently, based on PE ratio, but it possesses a good brand and products that could become attractive to international spirit companies that may well be prepared to pay a nice premium for it, as was done in Jamaica for Desnoes and Geddes brewers of the world famed Red Stripe beer and Lascelles Demercado producers of the Appleton brand of rums.

2020 another big year for JSE

It has been boom times at the Jamaica Stock Exchange these days with rising prices and increasing listings. That is in stark contrast only a few years ago when the Jamaica Stock Exchange suffered a contraction in listings when some companies that were acquired or merged.
The market lost companies such as Cable and Wireless, Lascelles de Mercado, Courts, Capital and Credit Merchant Bank, Scotia Investments, Desnoes and Geddes, First Life and Pan Caribbean Bank. In addition to these local companies, a few Trinidad and Barbados companies delisted. The advent of the Junior Market saved the day for the exchange in bringing new listings but, more importantly, telegraphed that listing on the market could raise good money for the companies and was not harmful to management as many thought to be the case in the past. In short, there has been a considerable revolution in the concept of going to market, especially with the younger cadre’ of management now running businesses.
The change in the thinking of the business sector is leading to two significant years for listings with the JSE expecting 18 new listings of ordinary shares in 2020. Managing Director of the JSE, Marlene Street-Forrest confirmed the projections with the IC Insider.com. “The 2020 listings are compiled from feedback the exchange obtained from brokers. The list is split equally between Main Market and Junior Market stocks,” Street Forrest confirmed to this publication.
At the start of this year, the JSE projected to have 20 new listings, so far they have listed 12, but Street-Forrest expects new listings to hit 19 or 20 by the end of the year including a listing of a Canadian company that will come to the market by way of an introduction. By contrast, the exchange is said to have had just eight (8) new listings in 2018. The new listings for 2019 include MailPac Group that the exchange said is set to list on Wednesday. Lumber Depot could start trading before the end of the week word reaching IC Insider.com suggests. In addition to the above two, Sagicor Select Fund is expected to list before the end of the year. For 2019 to date, there are eight (8) new Main Market and four (4) new Junior Market listings, including one preference share and Margaritaville share that was listed in the regular market, in addition to being previously quoted in the US dollar market. The recent IPOS will lift the total to 15 for the year. Some of the 2020 listings should include First Rock Capital Holdings with its prospectus said to be at the Financial Services Commission, TransJamaica Highway, Jamaica Mortgage Bank and Jamaica Public Service Company.
While the new listings will provide more choices for investors, it is also expected to add to the Stock Exchange revenues and profit in 2020 and beyond.

Palace is much more than Black Panther

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Carib Cinema, the flagship for Palace Amusement.

Revenues and profit are getting a big lift from the strong showing of the Black Panther movie currently playing at the Palace Amusement cinemas in Jamaica.
The stock jumped sharply in March, more than doubling the previous price of $560. Some investors are of the view that interest in the stock is purely as a result of the movie. While it may be a factor, Palace’s story goes well beyond that.
Although in the public eyes daily, the shares of Palace are not the focus of attention for many . One main reason is the 1,437,000 shares issued by the company, resulting in limited liquidity in the stock. The other is that historically profit can be a bit erratic. Management’s failure to split the stock for greater liquidity only adds to investors’ concerns.
Palace is reminiscent of Lascelles deMercado back in 1983 when the stock hardly traded due to liquidity issues and a lousy dividend policy. Asked then why the stock was so cheap, around $6, a broker responded —no one buys

A seen from Black Panther

Lascelles’ shares. That of course was a terrible error by investors as the stock went on to deliver one of the best returns on the local market with Campari ultimately buying out the company.
Stocks that are not sexy don’t get much attention from investors, but in many cases, these are the ones to record massive gains when the story is fully told. A reader of IC Insider.com indicated that a look at the last two years’ results revealed flat revenues. That prompted a review of the numbers. The history may not be spectacular but closer examination shows a high degree of attractiveness that is not based solely on the pile of added income Black Panther will rake in.
Revenues have been climbing since 2014 when it reached $833 million, rising to $916 million in 2015, with a slight dip in 2016 to $909 million. Revenues rose 9 percent in 2017 to $990 million and for the half year to December 2017, growth was 11 percent to $493 million with profit rising 138 percent.
Revenues will hit the billion mark for the first time in the company’s history, for the current fiscal year and remain over that level going forward. The performance of the economy is critical to the future fortunes and to a lesser degree, the quality of films. Data indicates that with a tight economy, patronage in Kingston suffered badly with the downturn in the economy from 2008 onwards. At the same time, strong growth, said to be around 7 percent per annum in the Montego Bay economy, showed up in strong revenue gains there compared to Kingston for a number of years. With the overall economy recovering and employment growing, Palace is benefitting and it’s reflected in the numbers to December 2017.

Palace Multiplex in Montego Bay.

Segment results tell the story of the strong impact of the economy on operations. For the six months to December, Box office patronage at Carib Cinema in Cross Roads rose 14 percent to $147 million, while at Palace Cineplex, the gains were 10 percent to $55 million and 8 percent at Palace Multiplex in Montego Bay to $77 million. Sales from the concessionaires surged 29 percent to $80 million at Carib, 22 percent at Cineplex to $27 million and 21 percent to $34 million at Multiplex. The fact that Carib has outgrown the other two cinemas is not an accident but is reflective of the recovery in disposable income of a large number of Jamaicans.
While revenues are on the rise, cost has been kept under control. Direct operating cost increased by 6 percent to $190 million for the quarter and 8 percent for the half year.

Another Palace movie – Bruce Willis and Cole Hauser star in Acts of Violence.

Administrative Expenses rose just 4 percent to $37 million in the December quarter and 7 percent for the six months to $76 million. Depreciation for the six months period rose just 5 percent to $17 million. If the trend continues into 2019 fiscal year earnings should be close to $100 per share range. Prior to Black Panther, earnings were set to reach around $45 per share but the phenomenal success of Black Panther is Projected by IC Insider.com to push 2018 earnings to be well over $100 per share when the fiscal year closes in June.
The company concluded the year with equity capital of $343 million, borrowings at just $25 million with cash funds of $130 million helping to push Current assets to $242 million as Current liabilities stand at $110 million.
The stock traded at $1,300 earlier in the month is poised to fall back with the lowest offer being $1,000. Palace trades on the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at a PE around 10 times projected 2019 earnings and much lower based on the 2018 earnings.

Iron Rock IPO hits market shortly

bill McConnellIron Rock Insurance is one of 5 junior market companies poised to hit the market between February and March, ahead of the deadline for the ending of the tax break, accorded junior market companies.
Iron Rock is expected to be capitalized at just under $500 million and has as two of its principals William McConnell formerly managing director of Lascelles deMercado who use to own Globe Insurance Company and Evan Thwaites former of Globe Insurance.
Informed sources tell IC Insider that the prospectus should be out by the February 22, with the issue to be opened before the end of the month.
Mayberry Investments are the brokers for Iron Rock while JMMB Securities is handling two issues. The new listings if they are all approved, will raise the number of junior market listings to 34 and the number of companies listed to 30. In contrast the main market and the US dollar market has 35 companies listed plus a number of preference shares issued by companies with ordinary share listing.
The main market has almost stagnated and seems set to contract with two main market companies, that of Hardware and Lumber and Desnoes and Geddes look set to be delisted.

US$194m for minority D&G owners

Red stripe botJamaican shareholders will make a windfall when Dutch based Heineken bids US$194 million for the remaining shares in the Red Stripe brewery company it now does not own.
It could result in the delisting of Desnoes & Geddes (D&G) similar to what occurred a few years earlier when Italian based Campari bought the bulk of shares in Lascelles deMercado from Trinidad based CL Group triggering a bid for the remaining shares.
Heineken earlier this week acquired nearly three-quarters of the shares in local based brewery from UK based Diageo in a deal spanning Jamaica, Malaysia and Singapore and Ghana totalling US$780.5 million.
“In accordance with the Jamaican Takeover Code, as a result of the acquisition of Diageo’s shareholding in D&G. Heineken will in due course make a mandatory offer for all shares of D&G not already owned by Heineken. If they acquire enough shares to give them 90 percent ownership, they intend to apply the mandatory offer to compulsory acquire the rest. The minority interest represents 26.7 per cent of the issued share capital of D&G, and implies a maximum total consideration of US$ 194 million. Further announcements regarding the mandatory offer will follow in due course,” stated Heineken in a release.
Desnoes and Geddes had a bid as high as $13 per share during trading today but the stock never traded and it ended with 2,744,725 units on the bid at $10.58. The stock last traded on Wednesday at $8 well below the offer price of almost J$31 for each share with the offer priced in US dollars.
Owners in Jamaica Stock Exchange will also be in on the fortunes of the deal as the exchange will end up collecting a nice payday when the local shares are transferred. Going forward the exchange will lose the annual listing fee and fees for trading the stock on the exchange.

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