ICTOP10 – Guardian a better buy now

The average gains projected for the Junior Market fell from 225 percent last week to 218 percent as the prices of a number of the top 10 stocks rose during the past week, but with no new entrant to either Top 10 list. The average projected gains for the Main Market stocks move up from 162 to 169 percent helped in a big way by the fall of Guardian Holdings from $790 last week to $763.  

Guardian Holdings hit a low of J$750 on Friday.

The price slippage for Guardian shares below $790 provides investors a better value proposition, with the PE at 8.3 times, rather than 8.6 that the NCB Global offer price for the 2 million shares they are offering to the public.
The markets continue to face resistance this past week, with the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market sits a few thousand points away and facing turbulence in getting to the peak. With the two Lasco companies releasing results after the market closed on Friday it will be interesting to see what investors do with their prices. If they rise appreciable the resistance is likely to be broken and clear the way to move to a new yearly high in the weeks ahead.
The Junior Market closed the week at 3,329.50, up slightly from 3,324 at the end of the previous week. The JSE All Jamaica Composite Index ended at 454,375.81 on Friday, marginally lower than 454,479.33 at the close of the previous week.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market, remain unchanged for this week, with Elite Diagnostic heading the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with the potential to gain between 255 to 303 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investments and Wisynco, with expected gains of 149 to 371 percent.
This week’s focus: RJR suffered badly from the effects of the curtailment of business in 2020 after showing signs of recovering from the prior years’ slow growth and high cost of operations. In 2020 they moved to deal with the pressure the fallout had and showed marked improvement in the second half of the calendar year. Importantly, there was significant cost cutting with the third quarter showing the effects with vastly improved results.
The impression given in the group’s December quarterly report is that the sharp fall in direct operating, selling and marketing costs were directly related to the fall off in revenues. That of course is only part of the story. The fall in cost has been far greater than the reduction in revenues suggesting that actual cost cutting was effected. ICInsider.com confirmed that the group that made some staff redundant also made changes by discontinuing unprofitable programs and publications. “Regarding cost reductions, some changes in the distribution network and workflows are permanent,” this publication was informed but revenues for some of the newspapers continue to run below pre Covid-19 levels.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Market stocks and 19 times for the Main Market.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.4 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 37 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 61 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.4 at just 52 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 7.8, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 17 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.8 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

JSE USD Market slides into weekend

Trading closed on Friday with the market declining, with slightly more stock slipping than rising, after the day’s volume jumped 422 percent with 384 percent less value than on Thursday’s trading, at the end of market activity on the US dollar market of Jamaica Stock Exchange.
Seven securities traded, compared to six on Thursday, with two rising, three declining and two closing unchanged.
The JSE USD Equity Index lost 2.63 points to end at 204.45. The average PE Ratio ended at 12.7 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
Overall, 5,394,877 shares were traded for US$743,518, up from 1,033,909 units at US$153,480 on Thursday.
Trading averaged 770,697 units at US$106,217, in contrast to 172,318 shares at US$25,580 on Thursday. Trading month to date averages 141,321 units at US$17,692 in contrast to 99,362 units at US$11,790 on Thursday. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows one stock ended with the bid higher than its last selling price and none with lower offers.
At the close, First Rock Capital rose 0.51 of a cent to 9 US cents after trading 6,019 shares, Margaritaville traded 110,700 units at 9 US cents, Proven Investments slipped 0.4 of a cent to 25.9 US cents with 43,825 stocks traded. Sterling Investments dropped 0.21 of a cent to settle at 2 US cents with 200,000 shares passing through the market, Sygnus Credit Investments fell 0.89 of a cent to close at 15.01 US cents with a transfer of 4,758,333 stock units and Transjamaican Highway added 0.02 of a cent to close at 0.86 of a US cent with 275,000 stocks crossing the exchange.
In the preference segment, JMMB Group 6% remained at US$1.10 with 1,000 shares changing hands.

Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Falling stocks had upper hand on JSE USD market

Trading on Thursday ended with the market index rising after trading 153 percent more shares than on Wednesday, with the value jumping 659 percent higher at the close of the US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange. 
Trading ended with six securities changing hands, compared to seven on Wednesday, with one stock rising, four declining and one remaining unchanged.
The JSE USD Equity Index gained 4.08 points to end at 208.08. The average PE Ratio ends at 12.8 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
At the close of trading, 1,033,909 shares changed hands for US$153,480, up from  408,971 units at US$20,220 on Wednesday.
Trading averaged 172,318 units at US$25,580, up from 58,424 shares at US$2,889 on Wednesday. Trading averaged 98,348 units for the month to date at US$11,504 in contrast to 94,121 units at US$10,700 on the prior trading day. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows no stock ended with the bid higher than the last selling price and none with lower offers.
At the close, First Rock Capital lost 0.01 of a cent to end at 8.49 US cents in exchanging 10,088 stocks, Margaritaville fell half a cent to close at 9 US cents after an exchange of 345,474 stock units, Productive Business Solutions closed unchanghed at US$1.01, with the trading of 54 stock units. Proven Investments rose 0.3 of a cent to end at 26.3 US cents with an exchange of 435,121 units, Sygnus Credit Investments declined 0.06 of a cent to close at 15.9 US cents after 43,172 stocks crossed the market and Transjamaican Highway fell 0.01 of a cent to 0.84 US cents while exchanging 200,000 units.

Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Nice fall for JSE USD market

Trading on Wednesday ended with the market declining after trading 51 percent more shares than on Tuesday, on the US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulting in more stocks falling than rising.
Seven securities changed hands, compared to eight on Tuesday, with one stock rising, five declining and one remaining unchanged.
The JSE USD Equity Index lost 7.00 points to end at 203.00. The average PE Ratio ends at 12.9 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
Overall, 408,971 shares traded at US$20,220 compared to 270,159 units at US$16,319 on Tuesday.
Trading averaged 58,424 units at US$2,889, up from 33,770 shares at US$2,040 on Tuesday. Trading averaged 94,941 units, month to date at US$10,955 in contrast to 97,719 units at US$11,568 on Tuesday. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows five stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and none with lower offers.
At the close, First Rock Capital dropped 0.39 of a cent to 8.5 US cents in switching ownership of 55,017 shares, Margaritaville lost 0.49 of a cent to end at 9.5 US cents while trading 2,000 stock units. MPC Caribbean Clean Energy declined 15 cents to end at a 52 weeks’ low of 95 US cents trading 307 units. Proven Investments declined half a cent to 26 US cents after exchanging 48,212 shares, Sygnus Credit Investments increased 0.96 of a cent to 15.96 US cents, with 3,415 shares changing hands and Transjamaican Highway dropped 0.1 of a cent to 0.85 of a US cent with an exchange of 300,009 shares.
In the preference segment, Equityline Mortgage Investment preference share closed at US$2 in trading 11 shares.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

USD stocks rose

Market activity ended with the market rising after the number of securities trading climbed above Friday’s level on the US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulting in eight securities changing hands, compared to six on Friday with prices of five stocks rising, none declining and three remaining unchanged.
 The JSE USD Equity Index gained 1.95 points to end at 210.00. The average PE Ratio ends at 13.4 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
Overall, 270,159 shares traded, for US$16,319 compared to 483,586 units at US$38,961 on Friday.
Trading averaged 33,720 units at US$2,040, in contrast to 80,598 shares at US$6,494 on Friday. Trading averaged 97,219 units for the month to date at US$11,568 in contrast to 103,810 units at US$12,476 on Friday. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows three stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and one with a lower offer.
At the close, First Rock Capital added 0.028 of a cent to end at 8.89 US cents, with an exchange of 908 shares, Margaritaville rose 0.099 to settle at 9.99 US cents trading 50,021 stocks, Proven Investment rose 0.05 of a cent in closing at 26.5 US cents, with 7,356 stock units changing hands. Sterling Investments gained 0.08 of a cent to end at 2.29 US cents in an exchange of 52,718 stock units, Sygnus Credit Investments gained 0.03 of a cent to close at 15 US cents after exchanging 51,507 shares and Transjamaican Highway closed at 0.95 US cents with the swapping of 107,644 units.
In the preference segment, Equityline Mortgage Investments traded just one stock at US$2 and JMMB Group 6% exchange just four shares at US$1.10.

Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

 

Guardian Holdings in ICTOP10

Guardian Holdings moved into the IC TOP 10 following the release of a prospectus from NCB Global that is offering 2 million shares to the public at $790 each, with the stock price falling immediately, after by more than $110, to be in line with the public offer price, valuing the company’s shares at 8 times 2021 projected earnings.

Guardian Holdings now in ICInsider.com’s TOP10.

Elsewhere, with the passage of earnings season, the markets have lost most of their recent firepower to drive prices forward at a time when the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market is a few thousand points away and in facing much turbulence in attempting to break through the peak.
At the start of the past week, the Junior Market pulled back from last Friday’s close, to sit just above the 3,300 level but climbed on each succeeding day of the week, but pulled back slightly on Friday to close at 3,324 points just a few points higher than at the end of the previous week. At the same time, the JSE Main Market made attempts to come close to the 460,000 mark of the All Jamaica Composite Index but was rebuffed on each occasion and ended the week at 454,479.33, up from 451,713.66 at the close of the previous week.
The Junior Market has to decidedly break through the upper limit of the trading channel, to free it to move on to the next area of resistance, just over 4,000 mark, but the Main Market has room to run for a few thousand points before it hits the channel top at 460,000 points.
There is a shakeup of the top three stocks in the Junior Market, this week. Elite Diagnostic heads the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with potential to gain between 247 to 300 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by Wisynco and PanJam Investments, with expected gains of 151 to 344 percent.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months or so.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.5 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 36 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 60 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.2 at just 50 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 16.5, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 15 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.9 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 225 percent and 162 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Falling stocks hit JSE USD market

Trading on Friday ended with the market declining after trading 125 percent more shares than on Thursday, on the US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, resulting in declining stocks clobbering those rising.
Six securities changed hands, compared to four on Thursday with one stock rising, four declining and one closing unchanged.
The JSE USD Equity Index lost 3.63 points to end at 208.05. The average PE Ratio ends at 13.1 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
Overall, 483,586 shares traded, for US$38,961 compared to 214,841 units at US$54,388 on Thursday.
Trading averaged 80,598 units at US$6,494, in contrast to 53,710 shares at US$13,597 on Thursday. Trading for the month to date averages 103,810 units at US$12,476 in contrast to 105,595 units at US$12,936 on Thursday. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows no stock ending trading with the bid higher than the last selling price and one with lower offers.
At the close, First Rock Capital declined by 0.35 of a cent to 8.61 US cents, trading 14,086 shares, Margaritaville ended trading of  309,135 stock units and closed at 9 US cents,  Proven Investments lost 0.9 of a cent in closing at 26 US cents, with 6,240 stock units changing hands. Sterling Investments shed 0.08 of a cent to end at 2.21 US cents in an exchange of 477 stock units, Sygnus Credit Investments declined by 1.23 cents to 14.7 US cents after exchanging 50,000 stocks and Transjamaican Highway climbed 0.02 of a cent to end at 0.95 US cents with the swapping of 103,648 units.

Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Volume jumps on USD market

The volume of stocks changing hands on Thursday climbed 84 percent higher than on Wednesday, with 481 percent greater value at the close of trading on the US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
The JSE USD Equity Index gained 3.01 points to end at 211.68. The average PE Ratio ended at 13.2 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
Only four securities traded, down from seven on Wednesday, with prices of two stocks rising and two declining, leading to 214,841 shares trading for US$54,388 from 116,571 units at US$9,359 on Wednesday.
Trading averaged 53,710 units at US$13,597, in contrast to 16,653 shares at US$1,337 on Wednesday. Trading month to date averages 105,595 units at US$12,936 in contrast to 108,400 units at US$12,900 on Wednesday. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows no stock ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and none closed with lower offers.
At the close, First Rock Capital fell 0.04 of a cent to 8.96 US cents with 3,565 shares traded, Proven Investments advanced 0.9 of a cent to finish at 26.9 US cents with 202,255 stock units changing hands, Sygnus Credit Investments fell 0.02 of a cent to settle at 15.93 US cents with a transfer of 9,001 units and Transjamaican Highway rose 0.07 of a cent to close at 0.93 US cents with 20 shares crossing the exchange.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

 

Sygnus portfolio expansion drives profit 80%

Sygnus Credit Investments reported record nine-month results to March this year, following growth in its private credit investment portfolio to US$73.6 million, from US$47.4 million a year ago. The rapid increase was aided by funds raised in an additional public offering (APO) in January this year that raised US$27 million in additional capital.
Net profit attributable to shareholders grew US$1.02 million or 79.6 percent to a record US$2.29 million for the 2021 nine months period, from US$$1.28 million for the nine months to March 2020. For March 2021 quarter, net profit climbed to US$1.03 million from a loss of US$355,800 in 2020.
Weighted Average Fair Value Yield on Portfolio was 11.8 percent in the March quarter, up slightly from 11.3 percent in 2020 but a bit lower than the 12.3 percent generated for the 2020 fiscal year.
Earnings per share amounted to 0.56 US cents for the nine months to March 2021, up from 0.36 US cents for nine months period in 2020. EPS for the March 2021 quarter amounts to 0.20 US cents, from a loss of 0.10 US cents per share for 2020.
Total investment revenues grew an attractive 45 percent to a record US$5.6 million, for the nine months to March, from US$3.88 million earned in the nine months ended March 2020. For the 2021 March quarter, total investment income grew by 44 percent to a record US$2 million, up from US$1.4 million in March 2020 quarter.
Total expenses incurred amounts to US$680,200 in the March quarter versus US$1.94 million in 2020 and for nine months to March 2021, US$2.32 million and US$1.29 million for the similar period in 2020.
Interest Expense for the latest quarter amounts to US$475,745, up from $355,266 in the 2020 quarter and US$1,454,049 for the nine months to March compared to just US$472,002 in 2020 and resulted in Net Interest Income of $1,546,309 for March 2021 quarter versus US$1,052,737 in 2020 and US$4,170,676 for the nine months to March this year, up from US$3,408,064 in 2020.
The company had fair value gains on Investments and other income of US$165,822 in the March quarter versus a loss of US$122,246 and for the nine months to March 2021, US$189,945 compared to a loss of US$57,082 in 2020. Net foreign exchange losses of US$32,506 were incurred in the March 2021 quarter versus US$714,427 in 2020, with nine months losses of US$82,457 this year against US$1,018,292 in the 2020 period.

Sygnus Credit investments hit record

Impairment allowance on Financial Assets amounts to US$27,573 in the March 2021 quarter, down from US$180,417 in 2020 and US$224,019 for the nine months to March 2021 versus US$302,873 in 2020.
Management and corporate services fees combined rose 56 percent to US$470,116 from US$301,683 in 2020 and grew 69 percent for the nine months to US$1,239,955 from US$735,829 in 2020 as the portfolio under management grew.
Shareholders’ equity stood at $64 million at the end of March, up from $37 million in March 2020. Funds borrowed and used for funding purposes amounted to $19 million, but Jason Morris, a director of the company, states, that they can take the borrowings up to 1.25 times equity, giving them latitude for increased lending to their clients. Morris suggests that the cash on hand of $8.2 million at the end of March would have dwindled by the end of the June year end as they continue to fund new projects and that the pipeline of deals remains robust.
Funds garnered in the public offer that was completed on January 26, was not fully deployed throughout the March quarter, an important factor to consider in assessing the prospects for the June quarter and beyond.
ICInsider.com projects 0.9 US cents of J$1.45 for the 2021 fiscal year and 18 US cents or J$2.70 per share for the fiscal year ending June 2022.

Slower trading for JSE US market

Trading on the US dollar market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed on Wednesday, with the market declining after investors exchanged 91 percent fewer shares than on Tuesday, with 85 percent less value.
Seven securities traded, compared to five on Tuesday with the prices of two stocks rising, three declining and two remaining unchanged.
The JSE USD Equity Index fell 4.14 points to end at 208.67. The average PE Ratio ends at 13.2 based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings.
Overall, 116,571 shares traded, for US$9,359 down from 1,338,589 units at US$44,466 on Tuesday.
Trading averaged 16,653 units at US$1,337, in contrast to 267,718 shares at US$8,893 on Tuesday. The month to date averaged 108,400 units at US$12,900 in contrast to 117,985 units at US$14,108 on Tuesday. April ended with an average of 80,293 units for US$6,320.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows no stock ending with the bid higher than the last selling price and one with a lower offer.
At the close, First Rock Capital fell 0.5 of a cent to 9 US cents with an exchange of 86,049 shares, Margaritaville finished at 9 US cents with 2,214 units passing through the market, Proven Investments lost 0.35 of a cent to 26.1 US cents with 3,931 stock units traded. Sterling Investments closed at 2.29 US cents with 4 shares changing hands, gained 0.87 of a cent to settle at 15.95 US cents with investors switching ownership of 1 unit and Transjamaican Highway climbed 0.01 of a cent to close 0.86 US cents with 24,032 shares crossing the exchange.

Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.