ICTOP10 – Guardian a better buy now

The average gains projected for the Junior Market fell from 225 percent last week to 218 percent as the prices of a number of the top 10 stocks rose during the past week, but with no new entrant to either Top 10 list. The average projected gains for the Main Market stocks move up from 162 to 169 percent helped in a big way by the fall of Guardian Holdings from $790 last week to $763.  

Guardian Holdings hit a low of J$750 on Friday.

The price slippage for Guardian shares below $790 provides investors a better value proposition, with the PE at 8.3 times, rather than 8.6 that the NCB Global offer price for the 2 million shares they are offering to the public.
The markets continue to face resistance this past week, with the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market sits a few thousand points away and facing turbulence in getting to the peak. With the two Lasco companies releasing results after the market closed on Friday it will be interesting to see what investors do with their prices. If they rise appreciable the resistance is likely to be broken and clear the way to move to a new yearly high in the weeks ahead.
The Junior Market closed the week at 3,329.50, up slightly from 3,324 at the end of the previous week. The JSE All Jamaica Composite Index ended at 454,375.81 on Friday, marginally lower than 454,479.33 at the close of the previous week.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market, remain unchanged for this week, with Elite Diagnostic heading the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with the potential to gain between 255 to 303 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investments and Wisynco, with expected gains of 149 to 371 percent.
This week’s focus: RJR suffered badly from the effects of the curtailment of business in 2020 after showing signs of recovering from the prior years’ slow growth and high cost of operations. In 2020 they moved to deal with the pressure the fallout had and showed marked improvement in the second half of the calendar year. Importantly, there was significant cost cutting with the third quarter showing the effects with vastly improved results.
The impression given in the group’s December quarterly report is that the sharp fall in direct operating, selling and marketing costs were directly related to the fall off in revenues. That of course is only part of the story. The fall in cost has been far greater than the reduction in revenues suggesting that actual cost cutting was effected. ICInsider.com confirmed that the group that made some staff redundant also made changes by discontinuing unprofitable programs and publications. “Regarding cost reductions, some changes in the distribution network and workflows are permanent,” this publication was informed but revenues for some of the newspapers continue to run below pre Covid-19 levels.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Market stocks and 19 times for the Main Market.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.4 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 37 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 61 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.4 at just 52 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 7.8, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 17 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.8 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

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