Jamaica’s inflation down considerably

Oil prices came back from the pre-Ukrainian war prices easing inflation in Jamaica in April, with the country posting the lowest inflation rate since April last year. The year over year inflation rate is up to 11.8 percent according to Statin’s latest read on inflation.

Increased fuel prices added to inflation.

The release from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica would lead to a view that despite the negative 0.1 percent for April 2022, that inflation is still rising. That of course is false. Over the past seven months, inflation is trending well within the Bank of Jamaica’s range of 4 to 6 percent, at 5.10 percent annualised, with March being the worse month with a 1.6 percent increase, fueled a lot by the events associated with the Ukrainian war, but for that, the rate may well be lower than it currently sits.
The trend is in keeping with ICInsider.com report earlier this year, suggesting that inflation was well in control from the latter part of 2021.
The reduction in inflation in April according to the release by Statin, “was occasioned by electricity rates, which mainly resulted from lower fuel charges.”
The above decline was tempered by Statin states, by the 1.1 percent increase for the group ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling due to increased water and sewage rates. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, increased by 0.5 percent, as most classes within the division recorded higher inflation rates. There were reduced prices for Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, pulses, Fruit and nuts.

Jamaica’s interest rates holding for now

Zero inflation in December and prospects that low to negative inflation for the first four months of 2022 might have checked the move by the Bank of Jamaica to further engineer further increase in interest rates at this time.
At its latest Bank of Jamaica certificate of deposit (CD) auction, in the amount of $11 billion that was auctioned last Wednesday, January 4, the yield held, for the 30 day instrument, remaining the same as the out turn at the December 29 auction, at 4.13 percent, marginally lower than the rate in mid October.
Bids amounting to $21.53 billion were received covering 85 applications. There were 49 successful Bids with rates ranging between 4 and 4.2 percent. The highest bid was 5.5 percent for $1 million that was not successful.
Bank of Jamaica reduced the amount of CDS to $36.5 billion that is down from $46.5 billion at the peak late last year in mid-October, with the average rate at 4.17 percent.

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