The stock market cannot be looked at in isolation from what is taking place in the wider economy, John Jackson said in an address he made recently to the Kiwanis Club of Kingston on the state of the Jamaican Stock Market. There are many positives occurring that could have a good impact on stocks and the stock market but there are a few negatives taking place currently he stated.
Jackson went on to list a series of positives and negatives about the market and the economy. The economy is bouncing back from the major dislocations caused by the closure of the country’s borders in March 2020, resulting in the closure of the important tourism sector and billion dollar loss of inflows. That seems to be behind us now, although not fully based on traffic passing through the two international airports that were lagging behind 2020 and 2019 up to February this year, there are sounds that there may be big improvements in the March numbers. Remittances had record increases, well over the inflows for 2019 in both 2020 and 2021, with the latter up by $1.1 billion over 2019 flows to hit the US$3.5 billion mark.
Employment is at record levels, bettering the pre-pandemic high. The tourism industry was not at full employment when those numbers were compiled, so the situation will be even better when the next set of figures are released up to March, this year. The construction sector is enjoying record performance and absorbing quite a bit of the previously unemployed but higher interest rates could slow down the growth in the sector. 
There is continued expansion in the BPO sector that is employing a large number of Jamaicans and pulling US dollars into our coffers.
Inflation has risen sharply worldwide and Jamaica has not been spared the impact, resulting in the Bank of Jamaica hiking interest rates sharply from an artificial low up to August last year.
On the positive side, central government has reduced debt to GDP below 100 percent and that is freeing up resources to spend on badly needed capital improvement as well as in social areas that were neglected for decades, with a target of 60 percent of GDP by 2026.
Against the above economic developments and the hope that the Ukraine war and inflation will not derail positive economic benefits for Jamaica, the future of the stock market is good, as economic policy favours low interest rates and growth in GDP that will be positive for profits and stock prices. It should be noted that the number of investors has swollen from just fifty thousand to over 200,000 over the past four years. That growth is creating a broader and more liquid market for investors.
Growth in tourism expected in 2019
The Junior Market is at record levels surpassing the record high of 3,665 points in August 2019, since then, the market closed at over 4,200 points but the Main Market continues to lag and is still below the March 2020 level just before the collapse of stock prices.
In the past, investors were pulled into the market only to see it fall out of bed. This time will be different for some time to come due to cutting of the fiscal deficit, with more to come and a vast improvement in the balance of payments. These will allow for more consistency in policies and less volatility in the market. The market is also more diversified with a wider array of choices than in years gone by.
Investors should remember that the two critical factors driving stocks are interest rates and profits. Rising profits and stable interest rates will ultimately drive stock prices higher. The reverse is true. The key is to buy companies with consistent profit growth, as that demonstrates good management.
Profits for most companies released recently have been good with many of the stocks undervalued. Investors need good information to assist them in buying stocks.
Investors who want to buy stocks should favour undervalued stocks and stay away from ones selling well ahead of the average of the market, using the PE ratio as a guide. They should focus on companies that have a good record of consistent growth to make for a successful investment. Use the market data put out by ICInsider.com on earnings, PE ratios, net asset value and dividend payments as a guide in selecting stocks, these are proven to work that is why our Top10 stock selection delivered a 64 percent growth for Junior Market stocks in 2021.
