Jamaica’s GDP drops 6.7 percent in Q1

GDP fell 6.7 percent in the first quarter of 2021 due to the 9.9 percent fall in category service industries, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported.

Mining records GDP gains in 2021

Declines recorded for service industries except for government services. GDP for Hotels and restaurants fell 56 percent, being the main contributor to the decline. The Goods Producing Industries grew by 2.6 percent, with mining and Quarrying up 7.1 percent. Construction grew 10.5 percent, but Manufacturing suffered a 1.1 percent decline. Agriculture fell 2 percent due to drought conditions, Statin stated.
Declines were experienced in Other Services 21.9 percent, Transport, Storage and Communication 7.8 percent, Electricity & Water Supply 6.9 percent, Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment 5.1 percent, Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities 1.9 percent and Finance and Insurance Services 1.2 percent.

Bank of Jamaica sees contraction & growth

Bank of Jamaica is forecasting a contraction in the economy in the range of 10 to 12 percent in 2020/21 fiscal year before partially recovering with growth in the range of 4 to 8 percent in the 2022 fiscal year to March.

BOJ interest holds overnight rate.

“A projected decline in real GDP for the March 2021 quarter is expected to be mainly reflected in Hotels & Restaurants, Transport, Storage & Communication and Other Services,” the central bank states. “The overall decline for the quarter, which is expected to be smaller than the contractions of the previous three quarters, is largely based on the adverse, albeit receding, impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on travel and entertainment activities,” the bank’s release stated. The Bank’s current assessment suggests that the risks to the GDP forecast are balanced.
Monetary Policy
“While the impact of the Covid-19 virus has recently led to an increase in the stringency of measures in Jamaica to control its spread, there remains optimism about future GDP growth as vaccination programmes have commenced both locally and globally. Bank of Jamaica has maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance aimed at supporting a speedy economic recovery once this crisis passes. Bank of Jamaica remains committed to ensuring that inflation remains low and stable, within its target and, at the same time, is prepared to take all necessary actions to ensure that Jamaica’s financial system remains sound”, the release went on to state.
“The Bank intends to maintain this monetary policy stance until there are clear signs that economic activity in Jamaica is returning to pre-COVID-19 levels.” Against this background, the central bank has held the policy rate at the historic low level of 0.50 percent based on its assessment that inflation will generally continue to remain within the target of 4 to 6 percent over the next two years. The bank’s accommodative monetary policy posture is also aimed at supporting a recovery in economic activity in Jamaica, a release from the bank states.

Tourism drives Jamaica’ GDP to 4%

Big increase in visitor arrivals in the first quarter of 2019 set to give Jamaica’s GDP a big lift in the quarter.

The huge increase in tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2019 is likely to result in a 4 percent growth in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of the year, data compiled by IC Insider.com suggest.
While the category of Hotels and Restaurants that tourism sector falls only accounts for around 7% of total GDP, the huge increase in stop over arrivals being enjoyed by the sector in the March quarter, will most likely more than compensate for its size in GDP computation and could add as much as one percentage point, to the quarter’s growth.
According to the Jamaica Tourist Board, “stopover arrivals in January 2019 were 216,509 an increase of 11.3% or 21,900 additional arrivals over the 194,609 recorded in January 2018.” Importantly, the arrivals from USA, the country with the high tourism spend is up 20 percent and would have contributed more in inflows as a result of the higher spend even as number of nights they stayed slipped a bit form 2018.

Construction sector is also expecetd to continue to lift the economy in 2019.


February, is up by 14.9 percent, Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett told The Sunday Gleaner and reported by that publication on March 3. The Jamaica Observer stated, “data provided by Delano Seiveright, communications strategist and advisor in the Ministry of Tourism, show that total visitor arrivals for the period March 1-17 amounted to 148,052, a 24.8 percent increase over the 118,597 recorded for the same period last year. Breaking down the numbers, Seiveright said that for the period March 1-17 this year Montego Bay welcomed 125,069 visitors, an increase of 22.7 percent compared to 101,967 for the same period last year, while the numbers for Kingston were 22,983, up 38.2 percent over the same period last year.”

Jamaican GDP doubles 2015 growth

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Image courtesy of arztsamui/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of arztsamui/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

The Jamaican economy is growing in 2016 at twice the pace it grew in 2015 up to June, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the entity that has the final say on the economic performance.
The economy that rose by 0.8 percent in the March quarter over the similar period in 2015 is up by 1.4 percent for the second quarter of 2016, compared to the similar quarter of 2015. If the trend were to continue, growth for the full year could hit 2 percent, the fastest pace of growth since 2006 with growth of 2.9 percent. The only other time since 2004 that the economy grew close the 2016 pace is 2007 when the economy grew by 1.45 percent and 1.43 percent in 2011.
Growth in 2015 over 2014 reflected an increase of 0.4 percent in the March quarter and 0.8 percent for the second quarter.
Agriculture added the most to GDP in Q2

Agriculture added the most to GDP in Q2

The 2016 second quarter increase, is attributed to improved performances in the Goods Producing industries 3.3 percent and the Services industries 0.8 percent but Mining & Quarrying industry declined by 1.9 percent. Increased outputs were recorded for Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 9.4 percent, Manufacturing 0.6 percent and Construction 1.6 percent.Major growth in the service sector came from, Electricity & Water Supply grew by 5.0 percent, Hotels & Restaurants 1.3 percent, Finance & Insurance Services 1.4 percent.

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