5 months of deflation for Jamaica

Price fallJamaica is enjoying a respite in upward price movements since October last year with the price of oil on the world market having collapsed from US$100 per barrel to hover around US$50. The country had a 0.1 percent inflation in October, but declined in each of the following months, with the latest data showing February 2015 with a 0.7 percent decline in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index. This followed the fall of 0.5 percent in January. Year-to-date inflation to February 2015, is -1.1 percent and since November last year the decline is 2 percent.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) indicated that the “main contributor to the decline, was a 3.6 percent decrease in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ resulting from lower rates for electricity and water. The reduction was tempered by an upward movement in the wages for carpenters, masons, plumbers, painters and electricians during the month. Also contributing to the decline was a 0.6 percent fall in ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, the heaviest weighted division. All other divisions recorded movements of below 0.5 percent.”
Increase were experienced by certain categories with ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ increasing by 0.3 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.2 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.3 percent ‘Health’ 0.4 percent, ‘Transport’ 0.1 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.3 percent and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.2 percent. ‘Communication’, ‘Education’ and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ recorded negligible movement for the period under review, Statin stated.

Inflation drops again says Statin

PriceBalloons_KittisakFREEIMAGE280x150pxThe Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reports that the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ Consumer Price Index fell by 0.5 percent in January this year, the third consecutive monthly decline in the inflation rate for Jamaica. The inflation rate was 0.1 percent in October, November was negative 0.5 percent and December negative 0.3 percent. The downward movement in inflation for January was mainly attributable to a fall in the index for the three highest weighted divisions. The index ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ fell by 0.2 percent, followed by the division ‘Housing Water, Electricity,

Gas & other fuels fell 3.4% in january

Gas & other fuels fell 3.4% in january

Gas and Other Fuels’ falling by 3.4 percent and the ‘Transport’ division declining by 1.6 percent. Contributing to these decreases were lower prices for ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’, lower rates for water, sewage and electricity, as well as a fall in the international price of crude oil, which impacted the local price for petrol, Statin stated in their release on price movements for January on Monday.
The release went on to state that the divisions that recorded increases in the All Jamaica ‘All Divisions’ index were: ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.4 percent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.9 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ 0.3 percent, ‘Health’ 0.1 percent, ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.1 percent, ‘and ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.6 percent, while Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 2.5 percent, ‘Education’, and ‘Communication’ each remained unchanged.

Jamaican prices fall expect more

Price fallPrices increased for October, by a mere 0.1 percent over September this year, in line with the increases in February and June but above a negative 0.3 percent in April. For November, this year, The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reveals that as at the Consumer Price contracted by 0.5 percent versus October 2014.
The November fall, represents the lowest inflation rate since the start of the 2014. The division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ declined by 0.1 per cent, and was mainly due to lower prices for vegetables. A reduction in the cost of electricity and lower rates for water and sewage were the key factors influencing the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, which declined by 3.6 percent. The latest inflation data brings the year to date level to 6.7 percent and the final number for 2014 should end up closer to 6 percent with the price of oil continuing to fall on the world market and local food products coming back in good quantities.

The fall in the price of oil helped in the negative price movement in November

The fall in the price of oil helped in the negative price movement in November

IC Insider stated in November that “the October number brings the yearly inflation to 7.2 percent to date. The shortage of many locally grown food items, pushed up prices and inflation in the food category for the September by 2.1 percent, the worse monthly increase by far for the year. Supplies are coming back to normal and will moderate prices in this category, so there should be lowering of inflation here. The price of oil have fallen on the world market down to the mid US$70 range and local gas prices at the pumps, having declined sharply. The fall in world oil prices will be passed through to consumers in lower fuel rate by JPS. With all of these developments rest of the year should see negative inflation that may pull the full year rate well below 7%. The inflation rate for 2012 was 8.0 percent and in 2013, 9.5 percent.”

Negative Inflation for rest of 2014?

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Price fallPrices increased for October rose by a mere 0.1 percent over September this year, and is in line with the increase in February and June but above a negative 0.3 percent in April. The rate for the rest of the year could be negative based on developments locally and overseas.
The inflation rate, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reveals was mainly due to a 0.2 percent increase in the index for the category of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and 0.3 per cent increase in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. This increase in the index for the latter division was mainly as a result of higher water and sewerage charges in October 2014 Statin stated. A 0.8 percent fall of prices in transportation, moderated the effect of the increases, in the other areas. Statin said that the ‘Transport’ division’s index fell as a result of the decline in the cost of airfares, as well as the price of fuel.

Lower airfares helped to keep October inflation low

Lower airfares helped to keep October inflation low

The October number brings the yearly inflation to 7.2 percent to date. The shortage of many locally grown food items, pushed up prices and inflation in the food category for the September by 2.1 percent, the worse monthly increase by far for the year. Supplies are coming back to normal and will moderate prices in this category, so there should be lowering of inflation here. The price of oil have fallen on the world market down to the mid US$70 range and local gas prices at the pumps, having declined sharply. The fall in world oil prices will be passed through to consumers in lower fuel rate by JPS. With all of these developments rest of the year should see negative inflation that may pull the full year rate well below 7%. The inflation rate for 2012 was 8.0 percent and in 2013, 9.5 percent.

Jamaica’s inflation jumps 2.1%

inflationahead280x150Jamaica’s inflation rate for September jumped 2.1 percent, over August 2014. The sharp upward movement was impacted by 4 percent increase in the category Transport which recorded the highest movement, mainly as a result of an increase in the cost of bus fares in the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area.
A 3.9 percent increase for Education, due to a rise in the cost of tuition fees, at the beginning of the new school year, was another main contributor to the hike. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages recorded an upward movement of 2.9 percent. This was mainly attributable to the lingering impact of drought conditions island-wide, which resulted in a shortage in supply of some agricultural produce and consequently higher prices, the statistical Institute of Jamaica said in a release accompany the data.
Inflation for the year to September is now at 7.1 percent. Going forward, the fall in the price of oil to US$80 barrel, revaluation of the Jamaican dollar and improved rain fall that should result in increased farms produce, should help to ease the inflation rate, in the months ahead.

Phillips & Wynter kill inflation in Jamaica

Many Jamaicans may be feeling the negative effect of the economic pressures the country is undergoing. One area in which it is seen, is the official data on inflation as the overall measure of consumer price movements, went virtually nowhere, in June.Peter Phillips
Inflation in Jamaica is set to hit the lowest level, in years if the trend for the first six months of the year continues. According to data put out by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the inflation rate for June is 0.1 percent, when compared to the index for May 2014. This is 0.9 percentage points lower, than the 1.0 percent recorded for May this year. The lower movement was mainly due, to a decline in the cost of electricity which resulted in the index for the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ moving down by 4.2 percent. This fall was tempered by an increase of 3.6 percent, due to an increase in the cost of water. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages rose by 0.6 percent. Upward movement in the prices of ‘Meat, ‘Milk, Cheese and Eggs’ and ‘Bread and Cereals’ were the chief contributors.
The movement in the index for June 2014 resulted in a calendar year- to-date inflation rate of 2.5 percent.
Mean quarterly inflation rate for the second quarter of 2014 was 1.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than the first quarter which had an inflation rate of 1.4 percent.

Statin confirms 1.6% growth in Q1

Jamaicaneconomy280x150The Jamaican economy grew by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of this year over the similar 2013 period but it is lower than the growth in the December quarter and only just moves the country ahead of where it was in 2012 as the latest growth figure places the country at 0.50 percent ahead of the first quarter of 2012. This is the third straight quarter that the economy is said to have grown. Statin previously confirmed that the Jamaican economy grew 1.8 percent in last year’s fourth quarter, 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013 when compared to the similar quarter of 2012 versus a decline of 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and declined by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.
In contributing the overall growth in 2014, Goods producing industries grew by 5.5 percent and Services industries by 0.3 percent. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing grew by 17.7 percent, Mining & Quarrying 8.5 percent and Construction 1.2 percent. Manufacture declined by 1.2 percent.
“Higher output levels in Construction was impacted largely by continued expansion in hotels and increased spending on work under the Jamaica Development Infrastructure programme”, Statin stated.
“Higher output was recorded for all industries within the Service sector with the exception of the Government Services which declined by 0.2 percent. Higher output was recorded for Transport, Storage & Communication (0.7 percent), Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities (0.6 percent), Electricity & Water Supply (0.5 percent), Other Services (0.4 percent), Hotels & Restaurants and Finance & Insurance Services (0.2 percent) and Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment grew by (0.1 percent)”, the report stated.

Economy grew in 2013 but barely

Jamaican economy was able to eke out 0.2 per cent growth in 2013 compared to the previous year, preliminary estimate from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows. The moderate growth rate, which could be revised later, emanated from growth of 1.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the similar quarter of 2012. The fourth quarter growth rate is the strongest for some time but it represents recovery from a period in 2012 when economic activity was negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy.

The economy recorded a growth of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the similar quarter of 2012. Earlier in the year, Statin reported that the Jamaican economy declined by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and declined by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. The country has not enjoyed much growth from 1999 has is shown by the table below.

Jamaica_GDPGrowth

Growth in the 2013 final quarter resulted from increased output levels in both the Goods Producing industries and Services industries, Statin said.

Statin stated that “the performance in the Goods Producing industries reflects increased activities in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (13.1 per cent), benefited from favourable weather conditions, Mining & Quarrying (12.1 per cent) resulting from increased capacity utilization at the bauxite and alumina plants and Construction (2.6 percent) due to an increase in residential housing projects and continued expansion in hotels. Manufacture industry declined by 0.8 per cent”.

All industries within the Services industries recorded increased levels of output with the exception of the Producers of Government Services which declined by 0.2 per cent and the Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment, which remained relatively unchanged for the period. Higher output levels were recorded for: Hotels & Restaurants (5.5 per cent), Transport, Storage & Communication and Other Services (1.1 per cent), Electricity & Water Supply (1.0 per cent), Finance & Insurance Services (0.4 per cent), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.3 per cent).

Related posts | Economy declined 0.1% in Q2 | Statin confirms growth of 0.5%

Inflation plummets

Inflation rate for February plummeted to just 0.1 percent or annualised at only 1.2 percent. The movement in the index for February 2014 resulted in a calendar year-to-date inflation of 0.6 percent.

The latest monthly out-turn is the lowest for since January and February 2011 and except for July 2012 with a negative inflation rate, no other month has come close to it.

The main contributors to the movement were the 0.2 percent advance in the index for the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, the heaviest weighted division, and increases of 0.7 percent each for the divisions Clothing and Footwear and Miscellaneous Goods and Services.

The impact of these increases however was moderated by a 1.2 percent decline in the index for the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels as a result of the decline in the cost of electricity, water, and sewage rates. ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ rose by 0.2 percent, ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 0.6 percent, ‘Health 0.2 percent, ‘Transport’ 0.1 percent.

Negligible movement was recorded for ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.4 percent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.1 percent, ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.7 percent, ‘Education’ and ‘Communication’ for the period under review. There was zero inflation in the rural areas during the month.

Related posts | Inflation moderates slightly | 2013 inflation 9.7%, worse than 2012

Inflation moderates slightly

Jamaica’s inflation moderated slightly in January this year, according to data released by Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) compared with the December 2013 inflation rate.

Statin says that the inflation recorded by the All Jamaica Consumer Price Index was 0.5 per cent. Jamaica’s inflation rate for December 2013 was put at 0.6 percent by Statin in an earlier report released in January.

All divisions recorded an inflation rate below 1.0 per cent, with the exception of ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’, which recorded an increase of 2.9 per cent. This movement was due mainly to the increase of approximately 12.0 per cent in the National Minimum Wage which took effect on January. The highest weighted division, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ moved up by 0.4 per cent a slightly lower movement than the 0.5 per cent recorded for December 2013, as lower prices were paid for vegetables and starchy foods.

Consumer-Price-Index-CPI-Inflation280x150The upward movement in the index recorded for the divisions for January were as follows: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ which moved up by 0.4 per cent, ‘Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco’ 0.1 per cent, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ 0.2 per cent, ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’0.7 per cent, ‘Health 0.3 per cent, ‘Transport’ 0.1 per cent. ‘Recreation and Culture’ 0.1 per cent, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ 0.5 per cent, ‘Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ 0.7 per cent, ‘Education’ and ‘Communication’ recorded negligible movement for the period under review the release stated.

The Index advanced in all three regions: Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) 0.6 per cent, Other Urban Centres (OUC) 0.4 per cent and Rural Areas, 0.5 per cent.

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