Food prices pressure November’s inflation

December 18, 2017 by

Food category was main contributor to November’s inflation.

Jamaica’s inflation increased by 0.6 percent during November over for October 2017 based on the Consumer Price Index, according to Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN)
According to STATIN, the “movement was mainly the result of a 1.2 percent rise in the index for the heaviest weighted division Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages. Transportation moved up by 1 percent due to higher petrol prices and airfares, and Education increasing by 0.2 per cent, as a result of an increase in the cost of CSEC examination fees. The impact of the month’s inflation was however tempered by the 0.9 percent fall in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, with lower cost for electricity being the main contributing factor.”
Year-to-date inflation is 4.6 percent, while inflation for the past 12 months is up 4.9 percent and the fiscal year-to-date movement was 3.6 per cent.
The relatively large revaluation of the Jamaican dollar against the US dollar since September, will have a moderating impact on inflation going forward.

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Inflation eases in July

August 17, 2017 by

Inflation in Jamaica eased a bit in July to 0.6 percent compared to June 0.07 percent, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin).
“For the second consecutive month the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages recorded the highest movement of 1.2 per cent. This was primarily due to an upward movement in the class ‘Vegetable and Starchy Foods up by 3.8 per cent,” Statin stated and the Transport division rose 0.3 percent. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels decreased by 0.3 percent a result of lower electricity rates.
Inflation for the calendar July come out at 2.7 percent, while the movement over the last twelve months runs at 4.5 percent, slightly more than the 4.4 percent at June.

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Jamaica’s Inflation spikes in June

July 24, 2017 by

‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ had a strong impact on price movement in June.

The Consumer Price Index for June 2017 increased by 0.7 percent, represented the highest monthly movement for the 2017 to date, a release from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) stated.
The rate of inflation for the calendar year-to-date is 2.1 percent, 4.4 percent over June last year, while the fiscal year-to-date rate is 1.1 percent.
According to Statin, the sharp increase in June was due mainly to increases in the index for the three heaviest weighted divisions: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages up by 1.1 per cent, Transport 0.4 percent and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels up by 0.4 percent. The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division was impacted by the flood rains in mid-May, which disrupted the supplies of agricultural products and resulted in a 3. 7 percent rise in Vegetables and Starchy Foods. The increase in the Transport division was influenced by higher prices for petrol. Increased electricity rates was chiefly responsible for the upward movement in the division Housing, Water, Electricity Gas and Other Fuels, as the class Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels rose by 1.1 per cent. However, the overall movement of the division was tempered by the 1.3 percent decline in the class Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling. Other notable increases were recorded for Restaurants and Accommodation Services, 0.6 percent and Recreation and Culture, 0.4 percent.

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Jamaica just eked out Q1 growth

July 7, 2017 by

Economic activity in Jamaican in the March 2017 quarter was virtually zero, according the data put out by Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin), the government body charged to collating economic data on the country. The results are subject to revision with the final out turn likely to be arrived at more than a year from now.
Statin stated that weather conditions affected production in both agricultural and the mining sector in the quarter leading to declines in those sectors.
According to the release by Statin, the economy grew by a mere “0.1 percent in real terms for the first quarter of 2017 when compared to the similar quarter of 2016. This growth was due mainly to a 0.4 percent increase in the Services industries. While there were improved performances in both the Manufacturing and Construction industries.” “The overall goods producing industries declined by 0.9 percent,” the report stated.
All industries within the Services industries recorded higher levels of output with the exception of Producers of Government Services which remained relatively unchanged.

Growth in Manufacturing grew 2.7%.

Increased output was recorded for: Electricity & Water (0.5 percent), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (0.3 percent), Hotels & Restaurants (1.1 percent), Transport, Storage & Communication (0.4 percent), Finance & Insurance Services (1.0 percent), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.3 percent) and Other Services (0.4 percent). Increase in visitor arrivals and increased activities in the restaurant group positively impacted the Hotels & Restaurants industry. Output of the Goods Producing industries declined by 0.9 percent due largely to a 3.6 percent reduction in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and a 9.9 percent decline in Mining & Quarrying.
“The performance of the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was negatively affected by drought conditions in the south central parishes and heavy rainfall in the North Eastern parishes. The Mining & Quarrying industry was affected by operational problems at one of the factories, heavy rainfall and a loss in the market share from the United States of America for crude bauxite. The Manufacturing industry grew by 2.7 percent and Construction by 0.6 percent. Increased output from the Manufacturing industry was influenced mainly by a 5 percent increase in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub-industry. The overall growth in the Manufacturing industry was however, tempered by a 3.4 percent fall in petroleum output. The performance of the Construction industry reflected increased activities in the building construction and building installation sub-groups. The industry continued to benefit from the expansion and renovation in the hotel sector,” Statin said.

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1.4% GDP growth for Jamaica in 2016

April 4, 2017 by

The Jamaican economy grew 1.4 percent for 2016, preliminary estimates by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, (STATIN) the government body charged with gathering and reporting on economic data shows.
The Jamaican economy grew by 1 percent in 2015, recent data from STATIN shows. Since 2004, the closest economic growth came close to the 2016 pace, is in 2007 with 1.45 percent and 2011 with 1.7 percent.
Growth was 1.1 percent for the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the corresponding period in 2015, representing eighth consecutive quarters of economic growth. “Increased output levels of 0.5 percent in the Services and 3.1 percent in the Goods Producing Industries contributed to the overall growth,” STATIN stated.
Growth was achieved in seven of the eight Services Industries: Electricity & Water (2.0 percent); Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (0.2 percent); Hotels & Restaurants (2.5 percent); Transport, Storage & Communication (0.5 percent); Finance & Insurance Services (1.0 percent); Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (0.3 percent) and Other Services (0.7 percent).
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, increased by a strong 17.1 percent and Construction by just 0.6 percent. STATIN said “the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was positively impacted by favourable weather conditions which resulted in higher crop yields, while the Construction industry benefitted from hotel expansion and renovation as well as the construction of office spaces to facilitate the expansion of Business Process Outsourcing activities.
Decreased output was recorded in Manufacturing by 0.2 percent and Mining & Quarrying by 11.9 percent. Manufacturing decline was influenced by a 5.3 percent fall in Other Manufacturing, due largely to lower output levels in petroleum refining. The effect of the decline was tempered by a 4.9 percent rise in Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub – industry. Mining & Quarrying industry continued to be negatively affected by reduced demand for bauxite from the overseas refineries.”

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Jamaica’s 2017 inflation to beat 2016 – 1.7%?

January 18, 2017 by

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

Inflation in Jamaica for 2016, fell to the lowest level in decades, with the Consumer Price Index showing inflation rate at just 1.72 percent for the year. The findings were released by Statistical Institute of Jamaica.
The inflation rate for 2017 could be even lower than that of 2016, if the historical patterns repeat. The 2016 out turn compares with 3.7 percent recorded for 2015. The rate for December 2016 was 0.3 percent and is just below the average of fiscal year-to-date movement of 3.1 percent to December 2016.
The rate for 2016 would have been even less, had it not been for increased taxes imposed by the government on a series of items in the first half of the year. The added increase from taxes should not recur in 2017 as revenues are running well ahead of target for the 2017 fiscal year and a pickup in growth should see a healthy increase in revenues for the new fiscal year.
In 2016, inflation in Jamaica, benefited from a continuation in tight fiscal policies, pursued by the government, but it would have been negatively affected by slippage in the exchange rate of the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar. Moderation in energy prices helped as well.
Going forward, the country should continue to benefit from relatively low energy prices a more stable exchange rate of the Jamaican dollar as foreign exchange inflows remain strong.
Data going back to 2002 suggests that the first two months of the year tend to have flat to negative inflation. In 2015 inflation remained below the December 2014 level until April and just inching ahead in May. In 2016 it remained below the December 2015 level until July.

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Doubts cast on employment rate

December 5, 2016 by

The Unemployment Rate for June 2016 fell to 12.9 percent, the lowest level since it hit a post 2007 high of 15.4 percent, in June 2013. It is the first time it is breaking below the 13 per cent level that it was stuck at for years. One aspect of the data raises questions about the findings.
Ja Unemply -2011-6-16.According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica the government body charged with collecting and collating economic data on the country. ”There were 1,186,900 employed persons in July 2016 which was 39,400 more than the 1,147,500, recorded in July 2015. The industry group Wholesale & Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicle & Equipment had the largest gain (13,300) in employment moving from 220,200 in July 2015 to 233,500 in July 2016. For the same period the industry group Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing had the largest decline (14,000), moving from 205,200 to 191,200. The industry group Construction had the largest increase in the number of males (10,200) and the groups Manufacturing (7,100) and Other Community, Social and Personal Service Activities (7,100) accounted for the largest increase in the number of females in the period.”
The big question is how is it possible for agriculture to have grown by a massive 38 percent, according to data from the Planning Institute of Jamaica and for there to be a major fall in employment in that category? The more likely situation is that employment grew sharply in the agricultural sector, resulting in a much greater fall in unemployment, assuming the estimate for growth in agriculture is correct.

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BOJ should cut inflation forecast

November 17, 2016 by

StatinInflation rate in Jamaica remains at a low level for October with the rate receding from 0.5 percent in September to 0.2 percent in the latest compilation by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin).
The rate of inflation for the calendar year-to-date was 1.1 per cent, while increase for the last twelve months to October is up 1.8 percent. The fiscal year-to-date registered an increase of 2.4 percent and is running well below the central bank’s forecast of 4.5 to 6.5 percent.
The month by month increase for 2016, should end just under 2 percent for the full year, suggesting that its time the central bank adjusts their fiscal rate target sharply down, with the price of oil under pressure and the prospect that electricity rates should decline with Jamaica Public Service switching to LNG to power their Bogue plant.

The fiscal deficit was wiped out by Peter Phillips as Minister of Finance after his fellow minister Omar Davies ran up huge deficit an high inflation under his watch

The fiscal deficit was wiped out by Peter Phillips as Minister of Finance after his fellow minister Omar Davies ran up huge deficit an high inflation under his watch

According to Statin, “the main contributors to this movement were the 0.5 percent increase in the index for the division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ and 0.2 percent rise in the ‘Transport’ division.”
Higher prices for vegetables and starchy Foods’ with an increase of 1.6 percent and movement for the division ‘Transport’ mainly attributable to higher prices for petroleum locally impacted the overall increase in inflation. A decline in electricity rates charged to consumers helped to moderate the increase.
The continued low inflation is aided by a fall in oil prices and other commodities on the world market but most telling, is the elimination of the huge government fiscal deficit in the past. The large deficit helped to fuel high levels of inflation and severe instability in the rate of exchange for the local currency.

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Inflation set to fall below 2% for 2016

September 16, 2016 by

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

Fuel prices at the pumps in May 2015.

The inflation rate to August based on the consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent over July 2016, bringing the year to date inflation to 0.3 percent. With just 4 more months to go for the completion of the year and with the price of oil on the world market declining, Jamaica seems set to enjoy one of the lowest inflation for 2016, in decades.
The calendar year-to-date inflation is only 0.3 percent, while the year over year movement is 1.8 percent. IC Insider is forecasting the full year inflation to end just below 1.5 percent, barring major negative developments. If the forecast is closely achieved, it would be the lowest rate in four and a half decades and will better the 3.66 percent achieved in 2015, the previous lowest rate over the same period. The rate for 2016 would be well below the 4.2 percent forecast by the IMF for the calendar year and the Bank of Jamaica the fiscal year forecast to March 2017 with a target of 4.5 percent to 6.5 percent.
JPSAccording to Statin, inflation for August was driven mainly by the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity Gas and Other Fuels’ which recorded the highest movement, 1.8 percent, primarily due to the increase in rates for electricity and water. The group ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division increased by 0.4 percent and was influenced by the upward movement in the group ‘Vegetables and Starchy Foods’ up by 0.9 percent. The increases were partially offset by a fall in ‘Transport’ by 0.2 percent, due to lower petrol prices on the local market for the month of August.
The low level of inflation comes against the back ground of a 5 percent devaluation of the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar and a tax package earlier in the year that saw an increase in the price of petroleum as well as a fiscal deficit that is close to zero and well below forecast.

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40,100 Jamaicans found jobs

September 3, 2016 by

Staff at Derrimon Trading.

Staff at Derrimon Trading.

Jamaica’s unemployment rate rose in March this year, compared with the similar period in 2015, but 40,100 more Jamaicans found work in the 2016 period than at the similar time last year, data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) revealed.
The unemployment rate decreased for men from 10.3 percent to 9.6 percent but women had a big setback with unemployment for them increasing from 16.8 percent to 18.4 percent.
The year over year change resulted in the Employed Labour Force for March 2016 was 1,168,600 up from 1,128,500 reported in March 2015 and left the Unemployment Rate for March 2016 at 13.7 percent an increase of 0.5 percentage points when compared to the March 2015 rate of 13.2 percent.
StatinAccording to Statin, “the industry group “Wholesale and Retail, Repairs of Motor Vehicle and Equipment” provided employment for the majority (253,400) of the employed persons. This industry provided employment for the majority of females (117,100) but the largest number of males (157,100) were employed in the industry group “Agriculture, Hunting, and Forestry & Fishing”.
The number of persons classified as being outside the Labour Force fell by 49,000 (6.3 percent) to 735,400 in the March 2016 survey bringing the number of persons in the Labour Force to 1,353,500, which was 53,100 (4.1 percent) greater than the 1,300,400 recorded in March 2015.

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