The price of crude oil on the world market sank to US$48.49 in early morning trading, the lowest levels since October 2017. The price peaked at US$76.10 in early October this year.
The trend suggests that the price will go even lower with increasing supplies said to be coming from production in the USA and concerns that the global economy is slowing and would use less oil.
The change in price has significance for the Caribbean region that are mostly net importers of oil, as well as Trinidad and Tobago who are producers of oil, and will earn far less income from the lower price. For Jamaica, it is likely to tame inflation as it did in November, when the country recorded zero inflation. It will also make the Bank of Jamaica’s inflation target of 4 to 6 percent targeting for the current fiscal year that the Country’s Central bank states was set by the Minister of Finance and the Public Service in September 2017, far more challenging than it was before.
If the price remains below the US$50 mark for a prolong period, then Jamaica could save somewhere in the region of US$$300 million per annum and that could positively affect the exchange rate, for the local currency.
No inflation
Fall in the price of fuel and appreciation of the Jamaica dollar helped in pushing inflation down in November with data out of Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showing zero inflation.
According to Statin, the result was influenced by a 0.3 percent increase in the index for the division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages. This was as a result of higher prices for vegetables, starchy foods and fruits but was tempered by a 0.8 percent decline in the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels due mainly to reduced rates for electricity despite the increased rates for water and sewage. The Transport division declined by 0.7 percent as a result of a decrease in the price for petrol. The calendar year-to-date inflation was 3.5 percent while the movement in the index for the fiscal year-to-date was 3.8 percent and the movement for the past 12 months comes out at 4.1 percent.
Inflation picks up
Price increases in Jamaica for the year to August rose to 1.6 percent with August adding 0.9 percent increase to consumer prices, slightly less than the 1 percent increase in July while price increases for the past twelve months was 3.9 percent.
The fiscal year-to-date is running at 1.9 percent and seems to be running below the 4-6 percent range the central bank targeted but may fall just below the Bank’s latest revised forecast 0f 3.5-6.5 percent, with the months ahead, usually recording lower inflation than the summer months.
According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), “The upward movement in August 2018 CPI was influenced by a 1.6 percent increase, in the index for the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division, primarily due to higher prices for agricultural produce resulting in an increase of 0.6 percent in the class Vegetables and Starchy Foods.” “Another influence on the upward movement was the Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household maintenance division as a result of the increase in the Minimum Wage of approximately 13 percent,” Statin stated. A fall of 0.1 percent in the index for the division Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, due to a lower electricity rates helped to ease the pressure of big increases.
Prices jump in July in Jamaica
Inflation rose 1 percent in July, exceeding the 0.4 percent rise in June bring inflation for the year to July to 0.7 percent after the All Jamaica Consumer Price Index recorded negative inflation to June of 0.3 percent.
Inflation for the past twelve months to July rose 3.2 percent.
The upward movement in the July 2018 CPI was influenced mainly by a 3.4 percent rise in “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels,” the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) stated. This resulted Statin said from increased electricity, water and sewage rates. Electricity, Gas and other Fuels and Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling, registering increases of 5.8 percent and 1.6 percent respectively.
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages recorded an increase of 0.9 percent, influenced by a 2.9 percent upward movement in the prices of Vegetables and Starchy Foods. A 0.8 percent increase in the index for the Transport division due primarily to higher petrol costs also contributed to the movement in the inflation rate.
Inflation in June but deflation intact
Jamaica recorded an increase of 0.4 percent inflation for June, leaving country still in deflation for the year to June at negative 0.3 percent and inflation for the last twelve months to 2.8 percent.
“Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, moved up by 1.2 percent, an upward movement in the rate for electricity resulted in the group ‘Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels increasing by 2 percent.
The price of electricity helped spike inflation in June.
More fall in Treasury bill rates
Government of Jamaica Treasury bill sample
At the latest Treasury bill auction, the average rate on the 91 days bill declined to 2.544 percent from 2.71 percent at the May auction, while the 182 days instrument average rate dipped to an average of 2.656 percent from 2.83 percent for May. The two offerings of $700 million each, attracted a total of just over $5.3 billion, an indication of continued high liquidity in the market.
The continued fall in rates comes against the back ground of negative inflation of 0.6 percent up to April, including deflation of 0.40 percent in April.
Jamaica’s inflation drops 0.4% in April
Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica reveals another month of falling prices for Jamaica with a decline of 0.4 percent in April.
April fall, follows negative 0.1 percent in February and March and no change in January. inflation for 2018 is now negative 0.6 percent and would reduce inflation over the past twelve months to 3.5 percent.
In April Statin stated that the main contributor to the deflation in March was a 1 percent fall in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages category, due to lower prices for agricultural produce resulting in a 4.3 percent reduction in index for the class Vegetables and Starchy Foods and Transportation also recorded a decline.
Deflation for Jamaica’s Q1
Prices declined for another month in Jamaica, according to data just released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) but prices are still high than a year ago.
Statin stated that the All Jamaica Consumer Price Index declined for the second consecutive month as a negative 0.1 percent inflation rate was recorded for March 2018. The main contributor to this movement was the 1.0 percent fall in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages category, due to lower prices for agricultural produce resulting in a 4.3 percent reduction in index for the class Vegetables and Starchy Foods. Transportation recorded a decline of 0.4 percent for the period, resulting from lower fuel prices. Upward movement of a 3.2 percent in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, primarily resulting from higher electricity, water and sewage rates help to negate the above mention declines. As at March 2018, the calendar year-to-date inflation was negative 0.2 percent and the movement in the index for the last twelve months is 3.9 percent.
Zero inflation in Jamaica – January
On average, prices in Jamaica hardly moved in the first month of 2018, according to data released by Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) as a result the inflation for the past 12 months ended at 4.8 percent.
“The inflation rate recorded a negligible movement according to the January 2018 Consumer Price Index,” Statin stated in their released today. “This was as a result of fluctuations recorded in the index for the heaviest weighted divisions: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. The highest weighted division, Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages registered a fall of 0.2 percent, due mainly to the class Vegetables and Starchy Foods recording a decline in its index of 1.4 percent because of lower prices for starchy foods and vegetables.”
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels increased by 0.3 percent, primarily resulting from higher electricity and water rates. The index for Education rose by 0.5 percent.
Revaluation of the Jamaican dollar against the US dollar during the last two months of 2017 and improvement in weather conditions that resulted in more supply of local foods would have been major contributors to the moderation in inflation.
Jamaica’s inflation tops 5%
Inflation in December 2017, increased by 0.6 percent, bringing inflation for the year to 5.2 percent, according the inflation report put out by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
According to Statin, “the movement was attributed largely to the upward movement recorded in the index for the divisions Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, 0.8 per cent and Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, 1.2 per cent. The upward movement for the heaviest weighted division Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages was primarily influenced by the class Vegetables and Starchy Foods which went up by 2.2 per cent. Higher prices for vegetables and starchy foods were the main contributors. Meanwhile, the increase for the division Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels was due mainly to a rise in the cost of electricity.”
Inflation in Jamaica for 2016, fell to the lowest level in decades, with the Consumer Price Index showing inflation rate at just 1.72 percent for the year, while 2015 ended with 3.7 percent increase.
