Crude price collapses

Energy traders bailed out of the expiring May U.S. oil futures contract in a frenzy on Monday, as the contract dropped by more than 70 percent to less than $5 a barrel and opening the widest gap ever between it and the next contract with storage rapidly filling, Reuters reported around midday Jamaica time.

Oil drilling offshore Guyana

The price of West Texas crude that plunged 45 percent to the lowest level in decades with the price hitting US$10.85 this morning plunged further in late morning trading to hit US$5.
On Thursday, the price dipped to close on the world market at US$19.73 from over US$62 in December last year. The fall takes place even as major oil producers agreed to cut production by nearly 10 million barrels a day, effective May.
The news is terrible for oil-producing countries and a huge gift to net importers of the commodity. In the Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana net exporters of the product will be negatively affected, but net importers in the rest of the Caribbean will enjoy a windfall should the low price persist. Jamaica will find the plunge a great gift as it will play a huge role in offsetting the fall in revenues from the tourist trade as at the current price the country would save around one billion per year.
For consumers, the drop means lower fuel prices, electricity charges but the government will see less advalorum taxes on petrol collected.

Crude oil plunged 45% Monday

The price of West Texas crude has plunged 45 percent to the lowest level in decades, with the price hitting US$10.85.

Imports of fuel fell in 2016

On Thursday, the price dipped to close on the world market at US$19.73 from over US$62 in December last year. The fall takes place even as major oil producers agreed to cut production by nearly 10 million barrels a day, effective May.
The news is terrible for oil-producing countries but a tremendous gift to net importers of the commodity. In the Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana net exporters of the product will be negatively affected, net importers in the rest of the Caribbean will enjoy a windfall should the low price persist. Jamaica will find the plunge a great gift as it will play a huge role in offsetting the fall in revenues from the tourist trade as at the current price, the country would save around one billion per year.
For consumers, the drop means lower fuel prices, electricity charges, but the government will see less advalorem taxes on petrol collected.

Guyana to grow 86% in 2020

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting a stunning 85.6 percent growth in Gross Domestic Product for Guyana in 2020 with oil production scheduled to begin in early 2020.
The huge increase in economic growth projected for 2020, will be up from a projected 4.4 percent increase in 2019 and 4.1 percent actual growth in 2018.
According to the IMF, economic growth for the current year continues as the domestic economy extends the broad-based expansion across all major sectors. Growth is driven by continued strength in the construction and services sector ahead of oil production in 2020 and strong recovery in mining. The oil sector is projected to grow rapidly, accounting for around 40 percent of GDP by 2024 and supporting additional fiscal spending annually of 6.5 percent of non-oil GDP on average. This would boost non-oil GDP growth by 3.5 percentage points on average.

Oil drilling offshore Guyana


The external outlook is expected to gradually improve after the start of oil production in 2020, the IMF stated. “The current account deficit is projected to narrow from negative 22.7 in 2019 to negative 18.4 percent of GDP in 2020, with the commencement of oil exports. The deficit will be financed largely by FDI inflows and donor-supported investment. In the medium term, the current account balance will improve further as oil-related imports subside with the completion of oil fields and as oil exports from Liza II commence in 2022.”
“Public debt is projected to peak at 56.6 percent of GDP in 2019 before declining sharply from 2020, reaching 15.8 percent of GDP by 2024, as the incoming oil revenue significantly reduces borrowing needs and increases GDP”, the IMF reported.

Crude oil sinks below U$49

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The price of crude oil on the world market sank to US$48.49 in early morning trading, the lowest levels since October 2017. The price peaked at US$76.10 in early October this year.
The trend suggests that the price will go even lower with increasing supplies said to be coming from production in the USA and concerns that the global economy is slowing and would use less oil.
The change in price has significance for the Caribbean region that are mostly net importers of oil, as well as Trinidad and Tobago who are producers of oil, and will earn far less income from the lower price. For Jamaica, it is likely to tame inflation as it did in November, when the country recorded zero inflation. It will also make the Bank of Jamaica’s inflation target of 4 to 6 percent targeting for the current fiscal year that the Country’s Central bank states was set by the Minister of Finance and the Public Service in September 2017, far more challenging than it was before.
If the price remains below the US$50 mark for a prolong period, then Jamaica could save somewhere in the region of US$$300 million per annum and that could positively affect the exchange rate, for the local currency.

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