The latest information out of the twin island state of Trinidad and Tobago, show a mixed picture for the general election outcome on Monday. The only consensus is that the results will be close. That contrast with poll findings from a survey conducted by H.H.B. & Associates carried out on behalf of Guardian Media and published last week Sunday.
According to that poll, the People’s National Movement (PNM) is leading the race in voter support with just eight days to go before the election, with 37 per cent of respondents said the PNM, while 30 per cent said the PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said Independent Liberal Party. These findings are exactly in line with recent election turn out which is just under 70 percent, with the undecided not ending up voting.
According to a report by the Guardian today, H.H.B & Associates, which conducted the Guardian Media Ltd (GML) poll, is projecting a PNM victory, with the opposition party taking 22 seats and the PP capturing 19. The newspaper did not say if the forecast was based on new data. The poll numbers of last week is unlikely to result in such a close race. IC Insider, last week forecasted that based on the above support, the PNM would win with 31 seats, if the poll numbers held up.
The Guardian is also stating that the latest, Nigel Henry/Solution by Simulation (SBS) pre-election tracking poll suggests a close race between the ruling People’s Partnership and the opposition People’s National Movement (PNM) in the general election tomorrow. The poll suggests that both parties are capable of winning 18 seats with five constituencies still too close to call. Poll results project that the winning party is likely to capture 21 or 22 seats.
This finding contrasted with the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (Nacta) poll by Dr Vishnu Bisram, which predicted yesterday that the PP would win 21 seats, the PNM 18 seats, with two marginal seats up in the air. The UWI Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit (Capsu) poll released last week also found that the PP is leading in five marginal seats in the election race. Solution by Simulation tracking poll by Nigel Henry projected yesterday that the PP was leading by 38 per cent, the PNM had 36 per cent, and 25 per cent were undecided. That would result in a voter turnout of 74 percent, a level that Trinidad and Tobago has not seen since 1961.
In the 2010 elections, the turnout was 69.45 percent, 66.03 percent in 2007 and 69.64 percent in 2002, next closet to these was 1991 with 65.76 percent. Based on the pattern of recent years it would be surprising if the turnout exceeded 70 percent and that could make a huge difference to the final election results.
Dr Vishnu Bisram, in his Nacta poll, said the percentage of undecided voters had shrunk considerably from a month ago, from “a high of 31 per cent to just six percent now,” and they could very well decide the outcome of the election.