Trading closed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Monday, with the volume of stocks rising 126 percent and the value 72 percent over Friday trades, with rising stocks outnumbering declining ones, two to one at the close.
Market activity led to 39 securities trading, down from 41 on Friday, with 21 rising, 11 declining and seven closing unchanged.
At the close, the Junior Market Index slipped 4.77 points to 3,324.73 to be up just under 26 percent for the year to date. The PE Ratio based on ICInsider.com’s forecast of 2021-22 earnings averaged 12.3.
A total of 13,810,331 shares traded at $29,320,428, up from 6,105,277 units at $16,999,068 on Friday.
Future Energy Source led trading with 54.5 percent of total volume after it traded 7.53 million shares, followed by Lasco Distributors with 11.4 percent while exchanging 1.58 million units and Lasco Manufacturing with 4.8 percent with an exchange of 657,218 units.
Trading averaged 354,111 units at $751,806, down from 148,909 at $414,611 on Friday. The month to date averaged 318,089 units at $760,337, compared to 316,141 units at $760,798 on Friday. April closed with an average of 329,241 units at $854,716.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows three stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and two with lower offers.
At the close, Caribbean Assurance Brokers advanced 8 cents to $1.97 with 1,500 shares passing through the market, Caribbean Producers climbed 14 cents to $3.80 with 159,024 units changing hands, Dolphin Cove dropped 20 cents to $6.80 with 32,861 stocks traded. Fontana gained 20 cents to close at $6 with investors exchanging 185,586 stock units, General Accident increased 15 cents to $6 with an exchange of 90,605 shares, Honey Bun rose 5 cents to $6.85 with a transfer of 60,639 units. Jamaican Teas added 6 cents to close at $4.07 with 218,302 stocks passing through the market, Jetcon Corporation slipped 8 cents to 94 cents with 174,027 stock units changing hands, KLE Group fell 6 cents to $1.22 with 644,500 shares traded. Knutsford Express shed 30 cents to $8, trading 19,174 units, Lasco Distributors dropped 29 cents to $3.96 in exchanging 1,576,784 stocks, Limners and Bards lost 9 cents to finish at $3.06 with a transfer of 127,224 stock units. Lumber Depot advanced 10 cents to $3.40 with 155,164 shares passing through the market, Mailpac Group rose 5 cents to $3.76 with 248,853 units changing hands, Medical Disposables shed 60 cents to close at $4.40 with 18,477 stock units traded. SSL Venture gained 8 cents to end at 63 cents with investors swapping 6,366 stocks, Stationery and Office Supplies dropped 20 cents to $8 with a transfer of 10,501 units and Tropical Battery fell 7 cents to $1.15 with 583,616 shares crossing the exchange.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
ICTOP10 – Guardian a better buy now
The average gains projected for the Junior Market fell from 225 percent last week to 218 percent as the prices of a number of the top 10 stocks rose during the past week, but with no new entrant to either Top 10 list. The average projected gains for the Main Market stocks move up from 162 to 169 percent helped in a big way by the fall of Guardian Holdings from $790 last week to $763.
The price slippage for Guardian shares below $790 provides investors a better value proposition, with the PE at 8.3 times, rather than 8.6 that the NCB Global offer price for the 2 million shares they are offering to the public.
The markets continue to face resistance this past week, with the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market sits a few thousand points away and facing turbulence in getting to the peak. With the two Lasco companies releasing results after the market closed on Friday it will be interesting to see what investors do with their prices. If they rise appreciable the resistance is likely to be broken and clear the way to move to a new yearly high in the weeks ahead.
The Junior Market closed the week at 3,329.50, up slightly from 3,324 at the end of the previous week. The JSE All Jamaica Composite Index ended at 454,375.81 on Friday, marginally lower than 454,479.33 at the close of the previous week.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market, remain unchanged for this week, with Elite Diagnostic heading the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with the potential to gain between 255 to 303 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investments and Wisynco, with expected gains of 149 to 371 percent.
This week’s focus: RJR suffered badly from the effects of the curtailment of business in 2020 after showing signs of recovering from the prior years’ slow growth and high cost of operations. In 2020 they moved to deal with the pressure the fallout had and showed marked improvement in the second half of the calendar year. Importantly, there was significant cost cutting with the third quarter showing the effects with vastly improved results.
The impression given in the group’s December quarterly report is that the sharp fall in direct operating, selling and marketing costs were directly related to the fall off in revenues. That of course is only part of the story. The fall in cost has been far greater than the reduction in revenues suggesting that actual cost cutting was effected. ICInsider.com confirmed that the group that made some staff redundant also made changes by discontinuing unprofitable programs and publications. “Regarding cost reductions, some changes in the distribution network and workflows are permanent,” this publication was informed but revenues for some of the newspapers continue to run below pre Covid-19 levels.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Market stocks and 19 times for the Main Market.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.4 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 37 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 61 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.4 at just 52 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 7.8, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 17 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.8 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Guardian Holdings in ICTOP10
Guardian Holdings moved into the IC TOP 10 following the release of a prospectus from NCB Global that is offering 2 million shares to the public at $790 each, with the stock price falling immediately, after by more than $110, to be in line with the public offer price, valuing the company’s shares at 8 times 2021 projected earnings.
Elsewhere, with the passage of earnings season, the markets have lost most of their recent firepower to drive prices forward at a time when the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market is a few thousand points away and in facing much turbulence in attempting to break through the peak.
At the start of the past week, the Junior Market pulled back from last Friday’s close, to sit just above the 3,300 level but climbed on each succeeding day of the week, but pulled back slightly on Friday to close at 3,324 points just a few points higher than at the end of the previous week. At the same time, the JSE Main Market made attempts to come close to the 460,000 mark of the All Jamaica Composite Index but was rebuffed on each occasion and ended the week at 454,479.33, up from 451,713.66 at the close of the previous week.
The Junior Market has to decidedly break through the upper limit of the trading channel, to free it to move on to the next area of resistance, just over 4,000 mark, but the Main Market has room to run for a few thousand points before it hits the channel top at 460,000 points.
There is a shakeup of the top three stocks in the Junior Market, this week. Elite Diagnostic heads the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with potential to gain between 247 to 300 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by Wisynco and PanJam Investments, with expected gains of 151 to 344 percent.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months or so.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.5 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 36 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 60 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.2 at just 50 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 16.5, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 15 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.9 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 225 percent and 162 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.