Future Energy Source Company Initial Public Offer of 500 million shares, which ICInsider.com indicated last week should be snapped up quickly by investors, with the company having long-term prospects for strong growth, did just that, with investors snapping the shares within two days of the opening.
NCB Capital Markets, the brokers for the issue, reported on Thursday that the issue, priced at 80 cents per share and opened on Wednesday, closed on Thursday the Junior Market IPO issue was oversubscribed. The successful closure of the issue will see the listings of companies rising to 42 from the current 41 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
The company that trades as Fesco reports earnings of $92 million before taxation for the period to December last year from revenues of $4.35 billion and is projecting pretax profit of $151 million for the year to March 2021 and $264 million for the 2022 fiscal year. The plant is for two new gas stations to be added to the current 14 before the end of 2021.
Oversubscribed
Rising Junior Market shifts up IC TOP10
During the past week, the Junior Market moved decisively up, with the market index closing well above the 2,900 mark that became a barrier for weeks, surpassing the 3,000 level, but closed trading since Tuesday just a few points below and is poised to move higher in the weeks ahead. Main Market stocks remain in the consolidation zone awaiting profit results to move prices higher.
TOP 10 stocks had a few changes during the past week, with Berger Paints back in the Main Market TOP10, replacing Sterling Investments that entered the list last week, while in the Junior Market, Caribbean Assurance Brokers returns to the TOP 10 as General Accident moved out.
This publication has stated that Junior Market TOP10 contains several companies that suffered a sharp reversal of fortunes in 2020, with recovery projected in 2021. Green shoots are showing for some with sales picking up in recent quarters, with improving profit. Some of these companies may require another quarter or two of improvement before meaningful buying starts. Main Event is one such company, reporting a profit on reduced income for the January quarter. Revenues climbed solidly in the latest quarter over the October and July quarters, but still far below the prior year’s level. 
Caribbean Producers is another that will definitely benefit from pick up in the tourist trade later in the year. Expect also companies such as Knutsford Express, Express Catering and Stationery and Office Supplies to be on that list.
The Main Market has a number in the list that have put out record profits or show signs of strong earnings in 2021, with the stocks clearly undervalued; these include JMMB Group, Jamaica Broilers, Sygnus Credit Investments and Grace Kennedy that are currently in the TOP10 Main Market listing and Caribbean Cement that is just outside.
Both the Junior Market and the Main Market continue to get support from technical indicators that point to robust gains ahead. To benefit from the growth in the market to come, many investors will need to be on board at an early stage.
This week’s focus: Future Energy Source Company Initial Public Offer of 500 million shares at 80 cents per share opens on Wednesday, with pretax earnings for the fiscal year to March this year around 7 cents per shares. The shares should be snapped up quickly by investors, with the company having long-term prospects for strong growth.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market mostly changed, with the potential to gain between 285 to 288 percent are Elite Diagnostic, followed by Main Event and Jetcon Corporation. The top three Main Market stocks with expected gains of 173 to 433 percent are Radio Jamaica, followed by VM Investments and Jamaica Broilers.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 15 and the Junior Market 10, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2021-22 earnings.
The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.5 at just 55 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 7.4 or 50 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 267 percent and 184 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Fesco IPO opens next week
Future Energy Source Company (Fesco) initial public offer of shares will open at 9 am on Wednesday, March 31 and close on April 9, at 4 PM, unless it closes earlier.
The issue comprises 300 million new shares with 200 million to be sold by existing shareholders at 80 cents each. If successful, the total issued shares will be 2.5 billion, with the shares slated to list on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market.
The projection shows a profit of $151 before taxes for the year ended March 2021 from revenues of $7 billion and earnings per share of 7 cents. The company forecast revenues of $106 billion and a profit of $264 million or 10.5 cents per share for 2022.
ICInsider.com had earlier done a detailed review of the offer and rated it a buy with long term growth prospects as there is much room for expansion as it currently has only 14 service stations under its banner. NCB Capital Markets is the lead broker.
Steady market steadies IC TOP10
The JSE Main Market and Junior Market slipped to end the week marginally lower than the close of the previous week. Against the background, Berger Paints was the only stock moving out of the TOP10 as it made way for Sterling Investments.
Junior Market stocks kept above the 2,900 mark of the market index only slipping below that level just one day during the week, as the market continues to consolidate in the move higher. Main Market stocks made attempts to break clear of the consolidation zone but the market is awaiting some strong profit results to move prices and that will not come until late April.
The publication has stated that Junior Market TOP10 contains several companies that suffered a sharp reversal of revenues and profit in 2020, with recovery projected for them in 2021. Green shoots are showing for some with sales picking up in recent quarters with improving bottom-line. Some of these companies may require another quarter or two of improving fortunes before there is meaningful buying into them. Main Event is one such company and it reported a profit on reduced income for the January quarter with revenues climbing solidly in the latest quarter over the October and July quarters.
The Main Market has a number in the list that have put out record profits or show signs of strong earnings in 2021, with the stocks clearly undervalued, these include, JMMB Group, Jamaica Broilers, Sygnus Credit Investments and Grace Kennedy that are currently in the TOP10 Main Market listing and Caribbean Cement that is just outside.
Both the Junior Market and the Main Market continue to get support from technical indicators that point to robust gains ahead. To benefit from the growth in the market to come many investors will need to be on board at an early stage.
This week’s focus: Limners and Bards reported strong first quarter results with rising revenues and profit. Revenues grew a strong 36 percent over the 2020 period to $356 million with profit rising 36 percent to $67 million as cost of operations rising 38 percent over the 2020 period. The company nevertheless seems set to nearly doubling profit for the full year, with profit of $192 million and earnings per share of 20 cents.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 292 to 312 percent are Main Event followed by Stationery and Office Supplies and Caribbean Producers. With expected gains of 181 to 433 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Radio Jamaica, followed by VM Investments and PanJam Investment.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 15 and the Junior Market 10, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2021-22 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.5 at just 55 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 7.4 or 49 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 268 percent and 184 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
More changes to IC TOP10 stocks
Berger Paints returns to the TOP 10 Main Market stocks while Sterling Investments drifted out, while the price of Caribbean Assurance Brokers rose 26 percent to $2.30 during the week and tumbled out of the Junior Market TOP10 and is replaced by General Accident.
Elsewhere, the 2021 TOP 15 listed Carreras that migrated from the 2021 ICTOP10 in February hit a new 52 weeks’ high during the week to sit at $10 for a rise of 45 percent for the year to date. The price could climb further, helped by improving profit and a high dividend yield. Future Energy Source (Fesco) hangs onto the Junior Market TOP10 list at the tenth position, with the prospectus still to be released to the public.
Junior Market stocks continue to fight clear of the 2,900 level of the market index for another week, but they closed above it on the last two days of the week, as the market continues to consolidate around that level. Main Market stocks made gains during the week, adding 1,524 points as they try to break clear of the consolidation zone.
The Junior Market TOP10 contains companies that suffered a sharp reversal of revenues and profit in 2020, with recovery projected for them in 2021. Green shoots are showing for some, with sales picking up in recent quarters with improving bottom-line. Some of these companies may require another quarter or two of improving fortunes before there is meaningful buying into them. The Main Market has a number in the list that has put out record profits or shows strong earnings in 2021, with the stocks clearly undervalued. These include JMMB Group, Jamaica Broilers, Sygnus Credit Investments and Grace Kennedy that are currently in the TOP10 Main Market listing and Caribbean Cement that is just outside.
Both the Junior Market and the Main Market continue to be supported by technical indicators that point to robust gains ahead that are backed up by a number of companies reporting positive profit results with their stock undervalued currently.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 292 to 312 percent are Elite Diagnostic, followed by Caribbean Producers and Caribbean Cream. With expected gains of 190 to 441 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica, followed by VM Investments and PanJam Investment.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 15.1 and the Junior Market 10, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2021-22 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.5 at just 55 percent of the market average. 
The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 7.5 or 50 percent of that market’s PE.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 268 percent and 184 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
More record close for some IC TOP10 stocks
With the Junior Market fighting to break clear of the 2,900 level of the market index over the past two weeks, there were no major changes to the IC TOP10 stocks this past week. The Main Market saw Carreras and Grace Kennedy trading at 52 weeks’ high, following positive gains in their latest profit results, while Caribbean Cement jumped sharply, following the release of a 70 percent rise in 2020 profit.
Sterling Investments is a new addition to the Main Market TOP 10, replacing Berger Paints with profit downgraded with earnings per share of $1.30 for 2021. That was inadequate to hold on to the TOP 10 position, but the stock is still on the ICTOP15 list for 2021. Future Energy Source (Fesco) hangs onto the Junior Market TOP10 list at ninth position, The prospectus was pulled and is yet to be re-issued. IC Insider.com gathers it was expected on Friday gone, but that seems not to be the case, but it could be coming soon.
The Junior Market TOP10 is filled with companies that suffered a sharp reversal of revenues and profit in 2020, with recovery projected in 2021. Still, green shoots are showing for some, with sales picking up in recent quarters with improving bottom-line. Some of these companies may require another quarter or two of improving fortunes before there is meaningful buying into them.
The Main Market has a number in the list that have put out record profits or show signs of strong earnings with the stocks clearly undervalued; these include, JMMB Group, Jamaica Broilers, Sygnus Credit Investments, Grace Kennedy are currently in the TOP10 Main Market listing and Caribbean Cement that is just outside.
The Junior Market and the Main Market are supported by technical indicators that point to robust gains ahead that are backed up by a number of companies reporting positive profit results.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 295 to 309 percent are Caribbean Cream, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Caribbean Producers. 
With expected gains of 165 to 456 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica, followed by VM Investments and PanJam Investment.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 15.8 and the Junior Market 9.8, based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2021-22 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.4 at just 55 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 7.6 or 52 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 274 percent and 181 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Fesco, JMMB & Sygnus in IC TOP10 stocks
IC TOP10 stocks are now based on earnings for 2021/22 fiscal years. Of the January listing, Access Financial Services moved out of the TOP 10 Junior Market list while Main Market QWI Investment and Carreras fell from the Main market list with increased prices.
Coming into the TOP10 are Fesco, the latest IPO that is expected to come to market shortly, with the prospectus having been released but temporarily withdrawn to correct some errors. JMMB Group and Sygnus Credit Investments are now in the TOP10 Main market listing.
Since the start of the year, the Junior Market is up 10.5 percent, with 11 companies’ stock rising between 20 and 63 percent, including four with gains from 49 percent up. The Main Market, on the other hand, is marginally down for the year by less than one percent, with five stocks recording gains between 21 percent and 47 percent and Ciboney rising 500 percent for the year to date.
The Junior Market and the Main Market moves are supported by technical indicators, pointing to robust gains ahead and back up by some companies reporting positive profit results.
This week’s focus: Grace Kennedy had outstanding results for 2020 with much more to come in 2021; expect the price to move sharply over the next few weeks. Caribbean Cement reported a 70 percent rise in profit for 2020 and is projected to earn $6.70 for 2021, the stock is an ideal candidate to move higher in the weeks ahead.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market can gain between 329 to 339 percent are Main Event followed by Elite Diagnostic and Jetcon. With expected gains of 202 to 459 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica, followed by Berger Paints and VM Investments.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, a clear indication of strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 14.7 and the Junior Market 9.8 based on ICInsider.com’s projected 2021-22 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.2 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 7.1 or 48 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 289 percent and 204 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Earnings projections wanted for all IPOs
FESCO may have computed the projection of income and profit to 2025 incorrectly by overstating some expenses but they are on the right track and must be commended for including the forecast in their prospectus, a very useful addition.
This publication has been rightly calling for all prospectuses to include forecasts of income and profits for three years at a minimum, but prior to the FESCO issue only new companies have been doing so. The lack of forecast is a disservice to the investing public.
The Alliance Financial Services prospectus released to the public in December does not contain any forecast of revenues and profit so was the case for Tropical Battery in late 2020 as such, FESCO decision to include a forecast maybe just a voluntary exercise rather than a standard for the industry that investors can look forward to.
Management who are responsible for the contents of prospectuses has much more information about a company’s future than the investing public. Since markets depend on good and timely information to thrive, the lack of forecast in all prospectuses is a disservice to the capital market and investors. To ask new starts up companies to provide a forecast of the future and not more mature companies who are in a better position to do so defiles logic.
Stockbrokers taking companies public should help to raise the standard by putting forecast in all prospectuses for the benefit of the market development and the Jamaica Stock Exchange should insist on it and so raise the standard of information going to the public.
FESCO worth a buy-in
Investors need to separate investments that can make them money from a great investment to hold long term. It is against this background that the latest IPO should be viewed.
Future Energy Source Company Limited (Fesco) initial public offer is set to open on February 25, with 500 million shares for sale at 80 cents each, with 200 million units being sold by existing shareholders.
Of the total, 325 million units are reserved for priority applicants and 175 million for the wider public to list on the Junior Market. The shares are not a great investment on the surface, but an opportunity exists to profit from an investment in the short to medium term. If all the shares offered for sale are subscribed to, the number of issued shares will rise to 2.5 billion units and the company will collect $240 million before expenses for the portion offered by them.
Proceeds from the company’s subscription of shares will support the growth of the existing businesses and allow the company to pursue strategic investment opportunities and pay the expenses of the issue.
The company was incorporated in February 2013 and made the first fuel sale in November of that year. In 2014, the first FESCO branded service station was unveiled in Mandeville and have grown to fourteen branded Service Stations. Two additional service stations, are to be opened this year, one at Ferry on Mandela Highway by April and the second at Beechwood Avenue, St. Andrew in June.
”Our current market share for transportation fuel is approximately 4.65 percent (April 2020- September 2020) and is expected to increase to 5.3 percent by March 2021 and 7 percent by December 2021. We estimate that FESCO’s market share reflects three (3) main facts: a) we are a relatively new company (operating for just over six (6) years) whose initial strategy has been to grow organically rather than through acquisitions; b) as at September 2020, we have very little presence in the Kingston and St. Andrew (KSA) fuel market. Our KSA offerings are limited to FESCO Stony Hill and FESCO Rock Hall, both of which are in the more rural parts of St. Andrew; and c) the dominance of the multinational brands in the industrial and commercial space where they provide fuels to private clients”, the prospectus states.
”FESCO’s current market share of transportation fuels at September 2020 is 4.65 percent up from 3.8 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2018 and it estimates that its market share will increase to 5.3 percent by March 2021 and 7 percent by December 2021”, the prospectus further stated.
FESCO’s sales significantly outstripped the 2019 performance in litres sold. In fact, FESCO’s April through September 2020 sales in litres of transportation fuels sold is 6.6 percent ahead of its performance for the same period in 2019 despite the impact of COVID-19 and the overall market declining 13.9 percent.
FESCO is yet to enter the commercial or retail LPG market estimated at 13,957,716 or between J$1.5 billion to $1.9 billion monthly.
Revenues increased from $3.754 billion in 2016 to $5.94 billion in 2020 representing a compounded average growth (CAGR) of 12.1 percent. Over the period, gross profits increased from $28.2 million to $178.3 million, with a CAGR of 58.6 percent. FESCO increased its gross profit margin to its dealers as its brands became more recognized and demanded by customers from 0.75 percent in 2016 to 3 percent in 2020.
From the 2015 financial year through to the 2020 financial year, average monthly volumes increased from 2,502 million litres to 3,743 million litres, a CAGR of 8.4 percent. Pre-tax profits increased by J$87 million or 172 percent to $137 million in 2020 up from $50 million in 2019.
Revenues over the period April 2020 to September 2020 was $2.811 billion down 5.84 percent from the comparative period of September 2019, a decline of $175 million from 2019 turnover of $2.99 billion. Profit before taxes for the period to September 2020 was $65 million, similar to that earned in 2019. 
The projection for revenues to March this year is $6 billion, with profit of $151 million for earnings per share before tax of 7 cents and a price earnings ratio of 11.4 that compares well to Tropical Battery that listed in January and now has a PE of 14.6. ICInsider.com forecasts 13 cents per share to March 2022 with the PE at 6 and the price rising to $2.50 by then. The prospectus was withdrawn due to projections to 2025 that appears to overstate the forecasted administrative costs by approximately $100 million per annum.
The company’s financial status strong with Shareholders’ equity at the end of September at $255 million, borrowings amount to just $63 million and cash on hand of $99 million.
First, the negatives. If the company succeeds with the IPO, it will have the largest board of directors of any Junior Market company, with 11 members. That is a great sign of management weakness. Grace Kennedy and NCB Financial have nine directors, while Scotia Group has 11. Those are vastly bigger and more complex entities that FESCO. The company relies solely on distributors for revenues in a sector that has been subject to industrial disputes from time to time and government regulations. Gross profit margin is primarily subject to worldwide price fluctuation in global petroleum prices.
On a positive note, the downturn in demand for petrol seems to be easing and should help boost revenues in the immediate period ahead. This year’s opening of two new service stations will help grow revenues by ten to twenty percent in a full year. One of the new stations will be owned and operated by the company. The company is relatively small, commanding less than 10 percent of the market, leaving much room for above-average growth with good scope for gain in market share. Additional, with the local economy poised to grow that, should aid growth as well.