The IC Insider.com TOP 10 stocks return, with earnings per share based on the profit of companies reporting full year’s results for the new financial year that ends after the second quarter of this year up to the second quarter in 2021.
Major uncertainties abound about the local and global economy and how each company may be affected. It is not possible to determine the exact fall out from the crisis and the impact on company earnings. Accordingly, actual earnings could vary materially from IC Insider.com’s forecast. In this regard, investors need to be alert to new information that will come to the fore on an ongoing basis and be prepared to adjust their investment decisions as time passes.
Where there are major uncertainties, there is the possibility of outlandish gains accordingly. Investors should be looking beyond just the immediate situation and identify companies that are financially strong to withstand the current cut in revenues but will make a strong recovery by 2021. The three top Junior Market selections are Caribbean Producers, KLE Group and Lasco Financial with the potential to gain between 320 to 600 percent by 2021. In the Main Market, Radio Jamaica leads the pact followed by Berger Paints then Eppley with projected gains of 149 to 200 percent.
The Jamaica stock market suffered sustained pressure during March, leading to one of the most rapid falls in stock prices in the history of the market. In the past week, prices have bounced with the Main Market putting in strong gains on Thursday and Friday, but the market index is down by a sizeable 29.5 percent year to date.
The market suffered from a large amount of money that went towards buying shares in Trans Jamaica Highway. At the same time, investors were concerned about the effects the Coronavirus could have on the economy and stocks in particular. Finally, prices fell so far that lenders make margin calls on investors who borrowed money on margin, resulting in selling shares to cover the shortfall at low prices to realize cash to pay down loans.
Trans Jamaica Highway shares were listed on the market on Tuesday. That gave some investors the opportunity to raise over $223 million in cash to reinvest in the market along with refunds from the oversubscription in the IPO.
The current year has changed markedly as the Corona Virus impact on countries worldwide has been significantly disruptive, inflicting significant damage to the individuals, businesses and economies. With the wipeout of fiscal deficits and debt to GDP set to be below 90 percent, the Jamaican economy is in a far better place than at the time of the 2008 crisis that severely tested the country and led to many measures that severely affected the economy from then until 2016.
The current situation of job losses worldwide will lead to lower inflows of export earnings for Jamaica from goods and services. Currently, the tourist industry is at a standstill. There are no clear indications when operations resume and what will the level of support be from guests. The effect of the downturn in the economy will affect companies to differing degrees. Some companies with early 2020 year-ends will not have the same impact on reported results and stock prices. With prices having fallen sharply, investors have an excellent opportunity to get back in and make a bundle in the next two years or so. The key to coming out big winners is to understand how the effects on each company and the timeframe.
With the tourism industry virtually closed, companies heavily dependent on the industry will have little or no sales for a while from March.
The Group consists of Caribbean Producers, Dolphin Cove, Everything Fresh and Express Catering. Entertainment company Main Event and restaurant operator KLE Group will be hurt from patrons staying home as well as fewer tourists visiting Montego Bay and patronizing the restaurant in that town. Some major contributors to the tourism market are Grace, Jamaica Broilers and Wisynco. The results for some companies are hit by falling stock and bond prices. The results for the 2020 first quarter will show the impact of the recent market decline. The latter includes JMMB Group, Proven, NCB Financial Group, Barita Investments, VMBS Investments, Jamaican Teas, QWI Investments and Sagicor Group. Banks may have to increase loan loss provisions as businesses encounter cash flow problems and defaulting on loan payments.
The targeted average PE ratio is 20, with both the Junior and Main markets currently trading well below this level. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 8 and the Junior Market a mere 8.5, based on current 2020 earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages 4.7 with the Main Market at 8.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at a discount of 45 percent of the average for Junior Market and Main Market stocks trade at a discount of 33 percent to the overall market. The average projected gain for the IC TOP 10 stocks is 377 percent for the Junior Market and 153 percent for the JSE Main Market, based mostly on 2020 earnings.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns to March 2021. Forecasted earnings and PE ratio for the current fiscal year are in determining potential gains. The ranking of stocks is in order of likely increases, with the highest-ranked, being the most attractive. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis as new information is received that can result in changes in and out of the list.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
Trading in February resulted in an average of 624,731 units valued at $3,239,665 for each security.
NCB Financial Group closed $2 higher at $154, in trading 41,906 shares, 138 Student Living shed 81 cents to end at $4.69 exchanging 6,216 units, Portland JSX closed $1.60 lower to $7.30 after transferring just 416 units. Proven Investments ended at $35, after falling by $1 in trading 19,278 shares, Sagicor Group jumped $4.20 to $46.60, with 70,977 stock units changing hands, Sagicor Real Estate Fund fell 82 cents to $6.60 with the transfer of 5,774 units. Scotia Group climbed $3.50 to finish at $47.50 and trading 77,214 shares, Seprod added $2 to end at $39, with an exchange of 41,696 shares, Sterling Investments picked up 30 cents to close at $2.80, in transferring 1,300 units. Victoria Mutual Investments ended at $6.54, with gains of 48 cents and exchanging 160,790 shares and Wisynco Group closed at $13.30, with a loss of 70 cents after 558,494 shares crossed the exchange.
The PE ratio of the market ended at 14.9, while the Main Market ended at 13.8 times 2019 earnings.
Portland JSX closed $1.60 higher to $8.90 after the transferring of 2,005 units. Proven Investments jumped $3.50 to $36, after exchanging 51,818 shares, Sagicor Group advanced by $2.40 to $42.40, in swapping 608,061 shares, Scotia Group regained ground with gains of $7 to settle at $44, with 170,469 shares changing hands. Seprod added $1 to end at $37, in trading 30,390 units, Stanley Motta shed 74 cents with a transfer of 7,500 units to end at $5. Sterling Investments closed 40 cents lower at $2.50 trading 68,830 units, Supreme Ventures ended at $14, with a loss of 99 cents exchanging 252,623 shares, Sygnus Credit Investments closed 53 cents lower to $16.50, trading 22,971 units and Wisynco Group swapped 840,773 shares at $14, after gaining $1.30.
The average volume and value for the month to date amount to 899,129 units valued at $6,578,450 for each security changing hands compared to 775,631 units valued at $6,653,987 for each company traded. Trading in February resulted in an average of 624,731 units valued at $3,239,665 for each security.
Kingston Wharves closed, with gains of $2 at $44 in trading 2,440 stock units, Mayberry Investments lost 50 cents transferring 27,849 shares to end at a 52 weeks’ low of $5. NCB Financial advanced $5 to $145, trading 67,140 units, 138 Student Living gained 39 cents to close at $4.50, with an exchange of 481 shares, PanJam Investment declined $2 to $78, with 49,817 units crossing the exchange. Portland JSX shed 50 cents trading 17,000 stock units and closed at $7.30, Proven Investments fell $4.98 to $32.50, after transferring 9,581 units, Sagicor Real Estate Fund lost 40 cents to close at $7.40, in swapping 900 stock units. Scotia Group closed 99 cents lower to end at $37, in exchanging 117,469 shares, Seprod ended the day’s trade at $36, with gains of $1 after 10,932 shares changed hands, Stanley Motta added 44 cents with a transfer of 25,175 units to end at $5.74. Sterling Investments closed 65 cents higher to $2.90, trading 116,210 shares, Supreme Investments ended at $14.99, after gaining 99 cents exchanging 433,163 stock units and Wisynco Group closed at $12.79, with a loss of 79 cents after trading 161,608 shares.
The other big move for the day, was the substantial fall of $16 in the shares of NCB Financial to close at $140, the lowest price of in a year.
The Market closed with an average of 1,817,851 units valued $11,653,928 for each security traded, in contrast to 640,893 units valued at an average of $8,466,980 on Monday. The average volume and value for the month to date amount to 775,631 units valued at $6,653,987 for each security changing hands compared to 708,783 units valued at 6,313,433 for each security traded. Trading in February resulted in an average of 624,731 units valued at $3,239,665 for each security.
NCB Financial dropped $16 to a 52 weeks’ low of $140, after trading 2,289,514 units, 138 Student Living lost 30 cents to close at $4.11, with 36,389 shares crossing the exchange, Proven Investments slid to $37.48, after losing $1.02 with 21,006 stock units changing hands. Sagicor Group shed $3 after exchanging 186,808 units and closed at $40, Scotia Group fell by $2.01 to close at a 52 weeks’ low of $37.99, in trading 138,446 shares, Seprod ended at $35, with a loss of $2 in swapping 94,065 units. Stanley Motta closed 30 cents higher with a transfer of 11,000 stock units $5.30, Supreme Investments ended at $14, after a loss of $1 and trading 206,576 shares. Sygnus Credit Investments lost 55 cents to close at $17, in transferring 202,528 stock units, Victoria Mutual Investments slipped to $6.30 after losing 39 cents with 176,895 units changing hands and Wisynco Group closed at $13.49, with gains of 99 cents after exchanging 493,269 shares.
The market closed with 45 securities changing hands in the Main and US dollar markets with prices of 17 stocks advancing, 17 declining and 11 securities trading firm. The JSE Main Market activity ended with 41 securities accounting for 26,276,614 units valued at $347,146,174, in contrast to 36,332,153 units valued at $175,354,038 from 42 securities on Friday.
IC bid-offer Indicator│ At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 11 stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and six stocks closing with lower offers. The PE ratio of the market ended at 14.5, while the Main Market ended at 13.3 times 2019 earnings.
Salada Foods shed $1 to $25, with 9,100 units changing hands, Stanley Motta ended 79 cents higher with 57,275 shares changing hands and settled at $5. Sterling Investments gained 28 cents to close at $2.50 swapping 58,805 stock units. Supreme Investments ended at $15, with gains of 50 cents trading 51,500 units, Sygnus Credit Investments shed 45 cents to close at $17.55, in transferring 136,312 shares. Victoria Mutual Investments lost 31 cents with 335,283 shares crossing the exchange and closed at $6.69 and Wisynco Group lost $2.20 in closing at $12.50, after exchanging 576,137 shares.
At the close, the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index plunged by 8,884.77 points to 403,150.10. The JSE Market Index dropped 8,035.44 points to 367,554.61, off 28 percent for 2020 so far and the JSE Financial Index fell by 2.27 points to 102.61 with a fall of 25.4 percent for the year to date.
Wigton Windfarm led trading with 17 million shares for 46.7 percent of total volume followed by Sagicor Select Financial Fund with 7.2 million units for 19.7 percent of the day’s trade and Sagicor Select Manufacturing & Distribution Fund with 4.3 million units for 12 percent market share. Other stocks trading more than one million units were QWI Investments with 2.2 million units and Sagicor Group, with 1.01 million shares.
Mayberry Jamaican Equities closed 50 cents higher at $6.50 with an exchange of 145,394 units, NCB Financial climbed $4.99 to $150, in transferring 212,384 units. Portland JSX settled at $7.80, with a loss of $1.10 trading 35,000 stock units, Proven Investments slid to $37, after falling by $2.79 with 8,819 shares crossing the exchange, Sagicor Group dropped $3.10 in swapping 1,012,113 units and closed at $49 after trading down to $43. Sagicor Real Estate Fund shed 99 cents trading 1,100 units to end at $7, Scotia Group dived by $6 to close at $40, with 340,790 shares changing hands, Seprod ended $2.50 higher with a transfer of 191,047 and settled at $37. Victoria Mutual Investments gained 67 cents trading 404,688 shares and closed at $7 and Wisynco Group closed at $14.70 after gaining 70 cents in swapping 540,430 shares.
Wigton Windfarm led trading with 5.7 million shares for 25.6 percent of total volume followed by Sagicor Select Financial Fund with 2.3 million units for 10.4 percent of the day’s trade and Sagicor Select Manufacturing & Distribution Fund with 2.3 million units for 10.3 percent market share. Barita Investments with 1.79 million shares and Jamaica Broilers, with 1.8 million shares, was the only other stock trading more than one million units.
JMMB Group closed $1.39 lower to $35.61, in trading 466,367 shares, Kingston Wharves slid $1.60 to $42, in swapping 624,349 units, PanJam Investment climbed $1 to $80 with an exchange of 564,828 shares, Portland JSX advanced by $1.10 to $8.90 after transferring 31,000 units, Sagicor Group climbed $6.10 to settle at $52.10, trading 537,957 stock units. Sagicor Real Estate Fund closed at $7.99, with a gain of $1.49 with 4,798 units crossing the exchange, Salada Foods picked up $ 1 swapping 229 units and closed at $26, Seprod shed 50 cents trading 60,448 to end the day’s trade at $34.50. Sterling Investments closed 40 cents lower to $2.20, with 301,662 shares changing hands, Supreme Ventures rose 60 cents to $14.50, with a transfer of 874,523 shares, Victoria Mutual Investments shed 67 cents and ended at $6.33, trading 237,971 shares and Wisynco Group declined by $2.70 to $14, with 347,564 units crossing the exchange.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows thirteen stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and five stocks closing with lower offers. The PE ratio of the market ended at 15.3, while the Main Market ended at 14.3 times the 2019 earnings.
Scotia Group shed $1.18 to settle at $46.82, in swapping 81,985 stock units, Seprod lost 50 cents trading 42,597 units and closed at $40.50, Supreme Ventures ended at $16, with a loss of $1.82 transferring 459,765 shares. Sygnus Credit Investments lost 75 cents to end at $17.25, in swapping 49,449 shares and Wisynco Group declined by 38 cents to $16.62, after 277,802 shares changed hands.
The market closed with 41 securities changing hands in the Main and US dollar markets after six stocks traded at 52 weeks’ lows. At the close prices of 8 stocks rose, 29 declined and 4 traded firm. The JSE Main Market activity ended with 35 securities accounting 19,892,130 units valued at $229,454,953 in contrast to 34,017,777 units valued at $260,298,044 from 43 securities on Friday.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows eleven stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and six stocks closing with lower offers. The PE ratio of the market ended at 15.7, while the Main Market ended at 14.8 times the 2019 earnings.
Pulse Investments gained 45 cents to finish at a record close of $3.35 in trading 424,119 stock units, Sagicor Group tumbled $10 to $43.01, in transferring 59,515 shares, Sagicor Real Estate Fund closed 50 cents lower at a 52 weeks’ low of $6.50, with 2,300 stock units changing hands. Sygnus Credit Investments lost 49 cents to end at $18, in swapping 30,024 shares, Victoria Mutual Investments closed at $7.06, with a loss of 63 cents after trading 171,283 units and Wisynco Group declined to $17, after falling $1 with 4,600,987 shares crossing the exchange.