Treasury bill rates plunged at the latest auction to raise $1.4 billion for Government of Jamaica held today.
At the latest Treasury bill auction the rate on the 91 days bill declined by just over 58 basis points to just 1.9596 from to 2.544 percent at the June auction, while the 182 days instrument average rate dipped 65 basis points to 2.07 percent from 2.656 percent from the June Auction. The two offerings of $700 million each attracted a total of just over $6.2 billion up from $5.3 billion in June, an indication of continued high liquidity in the market. The latest fall in rate follows a recent 50 basis point drop in Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) overnight rate to 2 percent and is almost certain to trigger another cut in the BOJ overnight rate.
The continued fall in rates comes against the back ground of negative inflation of 0.3 percent for the first half of the year. The sharp fall in rates is bound to be reflected in increased demand for stocks and real estate going forward as investors seek higher returns on their investments. Technical indicators point to a big break out for local stocks starting in August and the recent fall in rates will be a critical fuel for it.
BOJ buying pushed US$ rate
The official selling rate for the US dollar ended at J$130.47 on Wednesday, rising from $130.06 on Tuesday as sale to Bank of Jamaica under its foreign exchange auction, absorbed US$10 million at an average weighted rate of $131.17.
In Wednesday’s foreign currency trading, dealers bought just over US$27 million at an average rate of J$128.79 and sold over $35.4 million. Overall US$29.4 million of all currencies were bought by dealers and they sold US$38.2 million.
Dealers attempted to sell US$11.35 million to BOJ at rates as high as $134, for US$200,000 and as low as $126.80 for US$1 million. BOJ accepted all bids up to $132.93 and partially up to $133.
BOJ has been buying funds from the market from April when they started the buy side of the BFXITT auction.
On July 11, the central bank will sell US$5 million to the market and buy US$5 million on July 25. In April US$32 million was bought from the market, by BOJ, US$35 million was purchased in May and in June US$19 million. At the auction of Wednesday June 13, the central bank offered to purchase US$10 million buy only US$9 million was offered, the average rate ended at J$132.66 with the highest rate clearing at $133.50. On the June 13, the selling rate in the daily foreign exchange market jumped J$1.29 to JS$131.58 for US$1, a direct result of the BOJ buying, the rate moved even higher on the 14th even as inflows were more than sales on that day.
The central banks purchases helped to steer the Net International Reserves US$69 million higher in May to US$3.175 billion and also grew in April as well from US$3.075 billion at the end of March. At the end of February the NIR was US$3.18 billion.
July and August are two of the months with strong inflows of foreign exchange, but with summer being the prime time of Jamaicans to travel overseas demand tends to be high as well.
2018 interest rate cut was big buy signal
Apartment complex in Kingston – Real estate values to benefit from low interest rates.
Declining interest rate is a huge buy signal for both stocks and real estate investments. If the decline in rates is expected to be prolonged then investors will swicth their investments to take advantage of opportunities elsewhere.
Last year this publication boldly advise readers that the drop in interest rates by the central bank was a huge buy signal for stocks and that investors should be piling into stocks and real estate. Some were skeptical, clearly unaware that there are really two major factors driving stock prices – interest rates and profits. Interest rates have fallen to the lowest levels on record, in Jamaica.
Many who consider the present values of stock to be ioverpriced not factoring the major cahnge the falling rates will have on valuations of both stocks and real estate. A few companies may overpriced currently, but not the vast majority. The incredibly low interest rates being enjoyed by many Jaamicans are not about to change substantially, any time soon. While the low rate of 1.7 percent on treasury bills reached in 2018 won’t last forever, it is expected that it will not go up too far from current levels of just over 2 percent, any time soon.
In May last year, Bank of Jamaica cut the overnight policy rate, by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent that along with a decline in short term Treasury bill rates at the same time.
IC Insider.com stated then, that the moves provided more ammunition for a big surge for Jamaican stocks. The piece went on to state that with a 15 percent fall in BOJ’s policy rate in 2018 so far, stocks are lagging behind, with an increase of just 6.6 percent for the Junior Market and 4 percent for the main market.
The fall in Treasury bill rates was far greater than the rise of the All Jamaica Composite Index, an indication of a lot more upside for stocks based on the downward movement of interest rates.
Investors seem then to be focusing more on profits in valuing stocks than on interest rates so far. That will change the article suggested. The fall in the overnight rate at that time, translated to a 9 percent rise in stock market prices, but rates seem likely to decline some more before settling off, providing more ammunition for greater gains in stock prices.
We stated that with the fall in interest rates, the PE of money is at the high end 40 times income and using corporate bond rates around 12 times, but the PE ratio should be more tied to Treasury Bill rates and that PE is now in 30 range but stocks are mostly in the low teens and below. IC Insider.com further stated that most investors did not appear to be paying much attention to the tsunami that was on the way that will see prices move sharply higher.
With just over five months of 2018 passing, investors have not only warmed to the fall in rates but many are not willing to part with their stocks. Late comers to the party will pay much higher prices than in May and June. Then the Junior Market was up 24 percent and the Main market 31.7 percent and rising. Technical reading of the market suggest that the Main market has another 25 percent run to make before probably cooling for a charge to 720,000 points on the All Jamaica Composite Index in 2019.
The fall in interest rates makes it cheaper to buy real estate with lower interest rates for each dollar borrowed. Additionally, investors will switch funds from fixed interest investments into stocks and real estate thus driving up their values.
Note that this is an updated version of an article posted last year after Bank of Jamaica cut their overnight policy rate.
Jam$ falls vs US rise with others- Wednesday
The Jamaica dollar slipped moderately in value at the close of foreign currency trading on Wednesday against the US dollar but gained against the others.
Inflows of all currencies amounted to the equivalent US$30.57 million compared to US$37.57 million bought on Tuesday and sold US$42.74 million compared to US$42.54 million sold on Tuesday.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$41.45 million, 5 cents more than on Tuesday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.42, compared to J$125.37 in the sale of US$40.38 million on Tuesday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$28.57 million, with the average rate adding 4 cents to end $124.04, compared to US$35.51 million, with the average rate of $124 on Tuesday.
At mid-day on Wednesday dealers purchased US$13.07 million at an average rate of J$124.36 and sold $14.19 million at an average of J$125.26. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$ US$13.07 million at an average rate of J$124.36 and sold $14.19 million at an average of J$125.26.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, falling to J$97.43 from J$100.50 at the close on Tuesday. The selling rate for the British Pound declined to J$167 from J$171.54 previously and the euro declined versus the Jamaican dollar to J$151.76 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$152.19.
Jamaican$ falls in value – Tuesday
The Jamaica dollar slipped moderately in value at the close of foreign currency trading on Tuesday against all the main currencies it mostly trade against, except the pound.
Inflows of all currencies amounted to the equivalent US$37.57 million compared to US$63.21 million bought on Monday and sold US$42.54 million compared to US$63.48 million sold on Monday.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$40.38 million, 5 cents more than on Monday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.37, compared to J$125.32 in the sale of US$46.64 million on Monday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$35.51 million, with the average rate falling 33 cents to $124, compared to US$58.09 million, with the average rate of $124.33 on Monday.
At mid-day on Tuesday dealers purchased US$13.07 million at an average rate of J$124.36 and sold $14.19 million at an average of J$125.26. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$25.27 million at an average rate of J$124.58 and sold $19.78 million at an average of J$125.24.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, rising to J$100.50 from J$98.23 at the close on Monday. The selling rate for the British Pound declined to J$171.54 from J$172.28 previously and the euro rose versus the Jamaican dollar to J$152.19 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$151.70.
Jamaican$ gains against all – Monday
The Jamaican dollar gained further ground at the close of foreign currency trading on Monday against all the four main currency it mostly trade against daily.
Inflows of all currencies amounted to the equivalent US$63.21 million compared to US$35.26 million bought on Friday and sold US$63.48 million compared to US$37.86 million sold on Friday.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$46.64 million, 21 cents less than on Friday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.32, compared to J$125.53 in the sale of US$29.69 million on Friday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$58.09 million, with the average rate rising 58 cents to $124.33, compared to US$29.47 million, with the average rate of $123.75 on Friday.
At mid-day on Monday dealers purchased US$25.27 million at an average rate of J$124.58 and sold $19.78 million at an average of J$125.24. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$8.2 million at an average rate of J$124.37 and sold $7.46 million at an average of J$125.44.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, declining to J$98.23 from J$100.96 at the close on Friday. The selling rate for the British Pound declined to J$172.28 from J$174.70 previously and the euro fell versus the Jamaican dollar to J$151.70 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$152.09.
More recovery for Jamaican$ – Friday
The Jamaica dollar gained further ground at the close of foreign currency trading on Friday against the US and the Canadian dollars and the euro as volumes increased over the previous week.
Dealers bought US$201 million in all currencies, up from US$191 million bought in the previous week and sold US$217 million, compared to US$210 million in the prior week. Actual US dollar purchases by dealers amounted to US$178 million from US$166 million in the prior week and sold US$190 million including US$15 sold to Bank of Jamaica in the BFXITT auction, compared to US$184 million previously.
Inflows of all currencies amounted to the equivalent US$35.26 million compared to US$34.79 million bought on Thursday and sold US$37.86 million compared to US$31.28 million sold on Thursday.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$29.69 million, 4 cents less than on Thursday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.53, compared to J$125.57 in the sale of US$27.16 million on Thursday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$29.47 million, with the average rate dropping 55 cents to $123.75, compared to US$32.90 million, with the average rate of $124.30 on Thursday.
At mid-day on Friday dealers purchased US$8.2 million at an average rate of J$124.37 and sold $7.46 million at an average of J$125.44. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$12.17 million at an average rate of J$124.70 and sold $7.66 million at an average of J$125.49.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, declining to J$100.96 from J$101.70 at the close on Thursday. The selling rate for the British Pound rose to J$174.7 from J$173.57 previously and the euro fell versus the Jamaican dollar to J$152.09 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$152.63.
Jamaican$ recovers from B-Fxitt effect – Thursday
The Jamaica dollar recovered on Thursday from some of the losses suffered when dealers sold US dollars to Bank of Jamaica in the B-FXITT auction that helped to push up the selling rate on Wednesday.
Inflows of all currencies amounted to the equivalent US$34.79 million compared to US$38.04 million on Wednesday and sold US$31.28 million compared to US$55.58 million, including the amount sold to Bank of Jamaica on Wednesday.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$27.16 million, for 16 cents less than on Wednesday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.57, compared to J$125.73 in the sale of US$52.03 million on Wednesday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$32.90 million, with the average rate climbing 26 cents to $124.30, compared to US$32.44 million, with the average rate of $123.94 on Wednesday.
At mid-day on Thursday dealers purchased US$12.17 million at an average rate of J$124.70 and sold $7.66 million at an average of J$125.49. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$14 million at an average rate of J$124.51 and sold $18.42 million at an average of J$125.38.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, jumped to J$101.70 from J$97.54 at the close on Wednesday. The selling rate for the British Pound declined to J$173.57 from J$174.67 previously and the euro fell versus the Jamaican dollar to J$152.63 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$154.27.
Forex volume up with B-Fxitt trade – Wednesday
Bank of Jamaica bought US$15 million in the B-FXITT auction on Wednesday, with the average rates against the US dollar for accepted offer ending at $126.29. A total of 31 bids were received to sell US$21.85 million up to a rate of $128 and a low of $124.70
Dealers enjoyed inflows of all currencies amounting to the equivalent US$38.04 million compared to US$43.20 million bought on Tuesday and sold US$55.58 million, including the amount sold to Bank of Jamaica. US$44.03 million was sold on Tuesday.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$52.03 million, including the BOJ sales, at 37 cents more than on Tuesday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.73, compared to J$125.36 in the sale of US$39.23 million on Tuesday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$32.44 million, with the average rate declining 23 cents to $123.94, compared to US$40.56 million, with the average rate of $124.17 on Tuesday.
At mid-day on Wednesday dealers purchased US$14 million at an average rate of J$124.51 and sold $18.42 million at an average of J$125.38. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$14 million at an average rate of J$124.51 and sold $18.42 million at an average of J$125.38.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, dropped to J$97.54 from J$101.34 at the close on Tuesday. The selling rate for the British Pound declined to J$174.67 from J$176.07 previously and the euro fell versus the Jamaican dollar to J$154.27 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$154.99.
Forex volume remains elevated – Tuesday
Trading volumes remained high in the Jamaica foreign currency market on Tuesday, with the average rates against the US dollar rising against the closing rates on Monday.
Dealers enjoyed inflows of all currencies amounting to the equivalent US$43.20 million compared to US$49.25 million bought on Monday and sold US$44.03 million versus US$48.57 million previously.
At the close of foreign currency trading, dealers sold US$39.23 million at 14 cents more than on Monday with the US dollar selling rate closing at J$125.36, compared to J$125.22 in the sale of US$42.11 million at the close, on Monday. Purchases of the US currency by dealers, amounted to US$40.56 million, with the average rate rising 35 cents to $124.17, compared to US$42.64 million, with the average rate of $123.82 on Monday.
At mid-day on Tuesday dealers purchased US$14 million at an average rate of J$124.51 and sold $18.42 million at an average of J$125.38. At mid-day on the previous trading day, dealers purchased US$14.62 million at an average rate of J$124.18 and sold $10.34 million at an average of J$125.29.
The Jamaican dollar closed trading, with the selling rate for the Canadian dollar, climbed to J$101.34 from J$98.36 at the close on Monday. The selling rate for the British Pound rose to J$176.07 from J$175.34 previously and the euro gained versus the Jamaican dollar to J$154.99 to buy the European common currency, versus the prior selling rate of J$153.42.