The Jamaica Stock Exchange recorded losses on Wednesday, in the early morning session. 
After 30 minutes of trading the junior market index is down 2.5 percent, well off from Tuesday’s gain of 1 percent, in early trading.
A total of 5 stocks fell and 6 rose as 18 securities have been active with just 500,267 units changing hands. The all Jamaica Composite Index lost 665.05 points to 176,288.59, the JSE Market Index fell 595.09 points to 158,678.61, the JSE combined index fell 1,043.12 points to 168,279.75 and the junior market index dropped 53.35 points to 2,065.80.
The greatest movers so far are Cable & Wireless with a 10 cents gain, Caribbean Cement down $2.98, Sagicor Real Estate Fund down 30 cents and Lasco Manufacturing down 30 cents to $3.70.
JSE dips in early trading
5 stocks declined on TTSE – Tuesday
Witco closed at a 52 weeks’high on Tuesday
The Composite Index rose 0.57 points to close at 1,160.19, the All T&T Index fell 0.88 points to close at 1,901.96 and the Cross Listed Index gained 0.28 points to close at 55.35.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with 7 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 9 with offers that were lower.
Gains| Clico Investments traded 237,000 shares to close at $22.51 with a gain of 1 cent, National Commercial Bank rose 4 cents while trading 118,811 shares at $2.40 and West Indian Tobacco gained 5 cents to close at a 52 weeks’ high of $112.35 with 100 shares changing hands.
Losses| Ansa Merchant Bank lost 1 cent in trading 12,915 units at $38.95,
Guardian Holdings fell by 15 cents to close at $13.95 with 1,130 shares changing hands. Massy Holdings traded 165 units and fell 6 cents to close at a new 52 weeks’ low of $59.41 and National Flour traded 126,408 shares and fell 5 cents to close at $1.80.Firm Trades| Angostura Holdings ended with 726 shares changing hands at $13.60, JMMB Group traded 55,033 shares at 59 cents, Trinidad and Tobago NGL closed at $19 with 1,604 units trading and Trinidad Cement traded 280,728 shares at $3.51.
JSE’s modest recovery in early trading
The Jamaica Stock Exchange is making modest recovery on Tuesday morning. 
After 75 minutes of trading the junior market index is up 1 percent, well up from the 3 percent decline on Monday, in early trading.
A total of 10 stocks fell and 5 rose as 24 securities have been active with just 909,211 units changing hands. The all Jamaica Composite Index gained 224.52 points to 175,694.53, the JSE Market Index rose 200.90 points to 158,147.03, the JSE combined index fell 412.29 points to 168,364.80 and the junior market index dropped 62.47 points to 2,120.16. On Tuesday the junior index is up by 24.66 points to 2,130.69 points, in contrast to a fall of 64.27 in early trading on Monday.
JSE Main market up on Monday
Pressure on the Jamaica main market stocks eased on Monday with the indices gaining moderately but declining stocks just beating advancing ones by a margin of 16 securities declining 15 securities gaining as 40 changed hands in all market segments. 
Trading resulted in 2 stocks closing at 52 weeks’ highs.
A total of 7,670,934 units valued at $79,145,756 changed hands in all markets. The junior market accounted for 1,035,881 units changing hands, valued at $5,711,682.98.
The JSE Market Index rose 559.11 points to 157,946.13 the all Jamaica Composite Index gained 624.85 points to end at 175,470.01 and the JSE combined index dumped by 164.96 points to close at 167,952.51.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, in the main and junior markets, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading was 14 stocks with bids higher than their last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
Juniors down sharply – Monday
The junior market faltered again on Monday with 9 declining stocks and 6 advancing leading to another fall of 3.5 percent in the index of 76.60 points to end at 
2,106.03 with 18 securities trading, 1 of which ended at 52 weeks’ highs. The market ended with 3,118,773 units changing hands, valued at $20,407,860.
The junior market has declined 12 percent since peaking at 2,357.20 points, on January 12, this year.
At the close, 1 security ended with no bid to buy and 7 securities had no stocks being offered for sale. There were 8 stocks closing with bids that were higher than their last selling prices and 2 ended with lower offers.
4 stocks declined on TTSE – Monday
First Caribbean Traded at a 52 weeks’ high on Monday
The Composite Index rose 0.54 points to close at 1,159.62, the All T&T Index fell 0.64 points to close at 1,902.84 and the Cross Listed Index gained 0.24 points to close at 55.07.
IC bid-offer Indicator| The Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator has turned negative with 7 stocks with bids higher than the last selling price and 9 with offers that were lower.
Gains| FirstCaribbean International Bank traded 873,824 shares to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $5.56 with a 5 cents rise, Republic Financial Holdings gained 3 cents to close at $112.15 with 1,112 shares changing hands and Sagicor Financial traded 894 shares to end at a 52 weeks’ high of $6.66 after gaining 1 cent.
Losses| Guardian Holdings fell by 7 cents to close at $14.10 with 67 shares changing hands, National Enterprises closed with 20,000 shares trading and lost 1 cent to end at a 52 weeks’ low of $14.78, National Flour traded 13,472 shares and fell 10 cents to close at $1.85 and Point Lisas fell by 1 cent to end at $4 as 1,830 units were traded.Firm Trades| Berger Paints traded 5,000 units at $3.67, Clico Investments traded 45,520 shares to close at $22.56, JMMB Group traded 285,832 shares at 59 cents, Trinidad and Tobago NGL closed at $19 with 24,100 units trading and Trinidad Cement traded 165,882 shares at $3.51.
Carreras dividend yielded 20% in 2015
Carreras will be paying an interim dividend of $1.80 per share to shareholders on March 17 and brings the total dividend in the last twelve months to $8.94 for a yield of 20.2 percent based on the stock price of $44.10 at the beginning of March 2015.
In 2015, the company paid an ordinary dividend of $1.40 per share in December, a special capital cash distribution of $1.94 per on December 17, one dollar and twenty cents ($1.20) per share in September 3, two dollars ($2.00) per share unit in June a special capital cash distribution of sixty cents ($0.60) per share in September. March 12, last year an interim dividend of one dollar and sixty ($1.60) per share was paid.
The stock is now trading at $66.50 on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. Dividends to come are not likely to be as high as in 2015. The special dividends that were paid, should be at an end, leaving only ordinary dividends to be paid, as such the yield is likely to fall to just over 10 percent based on the current price.
Juniors suffer big early drop
for the second consecutive trading day the juniors stocks got hit hard in early trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange with the index falling 3 percent, almost the same as on Friday. Trading was moderate after 75 minutes of trading with less than 50 percent of the listed securities being active.
A total of 11 stocks fell and 7 rose as 25 securities have been active with just 3,115,541 units changing hands.
Jamaican Teas fell 38 cents to $6.75 with 2,030,000 as a director sold 2 million units, for cash flow purposes. Lasco Manufacturing traded 87,494 units but fell 20 cents to $4 and helped in a major way to sink the market index but that would have been partially offset by Lasco Distributors with a gain of 13 cents to $7.43 and Caribbean Producers drop of 49 cents to $5 would have also been a big contributor to the fall of the index as well.
The all Jamaica Composite Index gained 83.07 points to 174,928.23, the JSE Market Index rose 74.32 points to 157,461.34, the JSE combined index fell 494.37 points to 167,623.10 and the junior market index dropped 62.47 points to 2,120.16. On Friday the junior index was down 64.27 in early trading to 2,176.36 points.
Carreras profit up but report wrong
Carreras recorded moderate growth of 6 percent in the December quarter last year with profit after tax of $851 million from $800 million in the similar period in 2014, but the report issued by the company on the Stock Exchange has the September 2014 quarterly as the comparative December figures.
For the nine months to December, profits rose 16 percent to $2.27 billion from $1.97 billion.
Revenues grew for the nine months by 8 percent to $9.3 billion, up from $8.67 billion, while revenues grew 7 percent for the quarter from $3.3 billion to $3.55 billion.
Apart from the improvement in revenues which helped to improve profits, administrative cost were lower in the quarter, falling to $332 million from $512 million and for the nine months to $1 billion from $1.08 billion while Distribution and marketing cost rose moderately in the nine months to $512 million but the quarterly figure jumped from only $76 million to $245 million in 2015.
Cash funds stood at $3 billion but $1.1 billion is due to be paid for corporation taxes but shareholders’ capital $1.98 billion which is down from $3.1 billion at March 2015.
Earnings per share came in at $4.68 for the nine months and $1.86 for the quarter with full year’s earnings heading for $6.70 per share net asset value turns out at $4.05. The stock last traded at $66 on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Friday for a PE of 10.
The company will be paying an interim dividend of $1.80 per share to shareholders on March 17 and brings the total dividend in the last twelve months to $8.94.
PNP needs over 50% turnout to win
An analysis of poll numbers since 2014 and the number of eligible voters suggest that Thursday’s general elections in Jamaica could result in a shocker and a major shift in parliament. For the People National Party to win the 2016 elections will require voter turn out to be more than 50 percent.
Polls done from late 2014 puts the Labour Party support consistently at 25 percent except for the temporary decline shown in the Don Anderson polls in January to 23.2 percent when political activity was low keyed. Based on error factors in past polls, the base for the JLP is around 28 percent which is consistent with polls done in 2015 that would give them 510,835 votes. This would be an increase of 105,677 over the 405,000 votes they received in 2011 and well over the 464,280 the PNP got then.
The increase for the Labour Party works out at an average of 1,682 votes per constituency and is likely to create a major change in the seat count. It is more difficult to say what the PNP numbers will work out at in the end but it should be at least close to their numbers for the last election. It is difficult to see voter turnout of 53 percent in the 2011 being exceeded by much if at all, which would put the PNP support at 25 percent of the electorate or a few thousand votes less than in 2011.
If the PNP does not increase their support by much, they will be relegated to the back benches of Parliament after Thursday’s polls.
