Stock prices mostly fell for the second consecutive day in trading on the Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Wednesday with 23 securities changing hands, 8 advanced, 10 declined and 3 traded firm
The main market with 8,130,384 units valued at $56,308,791 compared to 17,396,748 units valued at $218,089,928 on Tuesday. The US dollar market traded just 3 securities accounting for 15,319 units valued at just US$14,671 while the market index fell 12.29 points to close at 166.33.
The JSE All Jamaican Composite Index dived by 2,309.99 points to close at 317,033.63 and the JSE Index dropped 2,104.66 points to close at 288,853.50.
Trading ended with an average of 353,495 units for an average of $2,448,208 in contrast to 756,380 units for an average of $9,482,171 on Tuesday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 307,065 units valued at $3,786,627 with an average value of 302,442 units valued at $3,919,890 previously. In contrast, October closed with average of 185,251 units valued at $16,528,582 for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 8 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 1 with a lower offer.
At the close of trading, Berger Paints fell $1.25, Grace Kennedy rose $1.50, PanJam Investment fell by $1, Sagicor Group rose $3.40 and Scotia Group rose $1.
Can NCB ignore compelling Guardian buy?
NCB Financial acquisition of 29.99 percent stake in Guardian Holdings cost $28 billion 2016. Make it the largest shareholder in an attempt to return it to majority ownership to which it previously belong.
If NCB were to increase their holdings to more than 50 percent it would strengthen their hands in greater integration of the group with the focus on cost reduction and income enhancement. Two areas would be, a possible merger of the two general insurance companies that would increase the muscle in the market and cut out lots of duplicated cost, the life insurance could also generate savings and increase potential income. An on the capital market side there is much to be gained with an increased financial strength that could become a real powerhouse in raising and providing capital within the region. But there at least one more compelling reason, Guardian’s profit for the six months to June is 83 Trinidad cents per share and is ahead of the 70 cents earned in 2016, earnings for 2018 should end up around TT$1.90 up from $1.61 last year. NCB currently trades in
Jamaica at a PE of 12 times 2017 earnings while Guardian earnings is below 7, any acquisition around the current price would be a huge steal for NCB and would be a big boost to the growth in 2018 earnings and by extension the stock price. That is far too attractive a deal for NCB to forego at this time. Raising the shareholder to 75 percent would create increased profits around J$2 billion and add about $12 to the stock price and that is without any group synergies.
At the time the acquisition, some 36 percent of the company was available for sale not including International Financial Corporation block which NCB acquired. Had they gone for the full amount, it would have triggered the takeover rule of the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange and would have required the group to have much more funds available, to swallow a much larger amount. A year and half having elapsed since that acquisition NCB has amassed more of its own funds by way of retained earnings and lately, from a floatation of bonds on the local market that initially raised $18 billion, the equivalent of US$138 million in September and a further attempt to raise US$105 million at attractive interest rates.
The funds raised was said to be used for regional and local expansion and acquisitions by the group. Acquisition of more Guardian shares seems to most logical more, along with more JMMB Group shares.
market capital is TT$3,538,793,786, a 20 percent stake that would take NCB’s stake to just under 50 percent, could cost around US$105 million, an amount that is well below the amounts raised recently and with the amounts they went to the market for giving them the financial muscle to acquire an additional 45 percent at current prices, that could take the ownership to 75 percent.
The case of acquiring JMB shares is compelling NCB with 26.3 percent of the issued ordinary shares is by far the largest shareholder with next being JMMB ESOP with 9.6 percent but Trinidad’s Colonial Life Insurance with a block of 6.3 percent can no longer be seen as long term holder and these shares may well become available for sale which NCB maybe best suited to acquire. The reality is that the Duncan’s family no longer holds a commanding interest in the group and based on the top 10 listing may just be able to muster votes of about 23 percent.
When the market speaks
Markets have a way of telling stories that confound many. In May 2014of that year, the local market declined to reach 76,344.27 points on June 23, after reaching 86,590 points in mid-March.
Some investors thought the market was going to crash with some pulling funds out and moving into foreign exchange investments. The technical reading pointed in a different direction, the market by then had hit bottom and was not only heading up but much, much higher. One big clue, the market was caught in a triangular formation, a tell-tale sign of a big break out. The signal was very clear from September.
An article published on this site in September 2014 said “Technically, the main market is seeing the short term moving average on the verge of crossing the medium term moving average, a bullish sign. Importantly, many listed companies have posted some attractive results for 2014 that is supportive of an upward push in their stock price.” The rest is history as the market slowly crept higher to 84,084.94 and the slow recovery morphed into a strong bull market starting early in 2015.
Recently, the market has been sending out strong signals, one is that the main market is heading for the 500,000 points market, that is 60 percent away from the current level. The other signal to have emanated from the market, was the clear message that was pointing the major error the directors of Berger Paints were making in recommending the sale of shares by minority shareholders.
The market sent the message but some investors did not listen resulting in the surrender of 6.6 million units at a vastly reduced value to its true valuation. It is not surprising that the stock now trades at $15
At an investors’ briefing this year, the NCB Financial Group’s executives said they saw no benefit to the company of a stock split. IC Insider.com had written a piece indicating that a split is baked into the price already and could not be avoided. On Friday and Monday, the market sent and even clearer message to the directors that it cannot be delayed with the stock price jumping record $108 with only small amounts being offered for sale.
Bulls take charge of Exchange Place
The Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed at another record on Friday with 21 securities changing hands in the main market and 3 in the US dollar market and 22 in the Junior Market.
At the close, the JSE All Jamaican Composite Index jumped 8,028.94 points to a record close of 313,990.54 and the JSE Index to surged 7,315.27 points to 286,080.89. The Junior Market rose 48.58 points to end the week at 3,034.13. The US dollar Index fell 2.29 points to 183.01.
Friday’s move pushed the market outside of the medium term channel it has been trading in since 2014 and if the price of NCB holds, the break out for the market will be significant as it move on to the 360,000 points level.
NCB Financial traded at a new record of $107 and is ahead of the $102 it traded at in Trinidad on Friday, up until today it trailed the price of J$100 it was trading at in the twin island state. Berger Paints traded at $14, after news broke on Thursday that only 6.6 million shares were sold by minority shareholders to Ansa Coating following the company’s mandatory offer of $10.88 per share. Attempts were made to trade it as high as $17.50 but the price exceeded the 30 percent limit it could trade at for the day and was cancelled at the close of the market. Trading closed with bids to buy Berger ranging from a low of $11.02 to a high of $14 to purchase 259,773 shares, 204,458 units are on sale from a low of $16.75 for 41,583 units to mostly 89,388 at $22.
For the year to date, the All Jamaican Composite Index is up 49.4 percent and the JSE Index 48.8 percent.
In the foreign exchange market at midday dealers bought US$13,372,228 at J$127.31 and sold US$11,367,821 at J$127.74.