Kremi Cream IPO — a strong buy

Update | The Kremi (Caribbean Cream) IPO was oversubscribed and closed earlier than expected on Wednesday May 1, 2013. Click here to read more . . .

Kremi (Caribbean Cream) racked-up 60% increased sales in the nine months to February this year, consistent with the historical growth of the company. If past history of revenue growth is anything to go by, the immediate future could be bright for the company and investors, who hold on to the stock after the company issues shares to the public officially on Thursday April 25.

The issue, in all likelihood, will be closed minutes after it opens as investors try to get hold of as many shares from a limited amount that will be available to the general public. Just about 68 million of the shares at a $1 each will be available to the general public, which includes 18.9 million reserved for Stocks and Securities Limited or their clients.

Kremi Ice-Cream is the brand; the company is Caribbean Cream Ltd, which started operations in 2008 just before the economic recession commenced.

While net asset value is a mere 15 cents per share — which is very high — the earnings per share work out at 15 cents for the year, it was 10 cents ending May last fiscal year. Investors Choice, a sister publication to ICInsiders.com, projects earnings of 39 cents for the 2013/14 year on the basis that revenues will continue to climb aggressively but at a slightly slower pace. Based on this year’s numbers, the PE is around 6, about the average of the majority of junior market companies. Revenues are growing very strongly and could accelerate if all the expansion plans and new machinery materialize. This suggests that there is considerable ‘upside’ for earnings and the stock value going forward.

Sales for the 2013 fiscal year to November were $462 million compared to $431 million for the full 2012 fiscal year and $289 million for the nine months to November 2011. That’s impressive, and if it continues for some time into the future, profits will increase appreciably. Listing will add some cost to overheads as listing fees and other associated costs increase with more shareholders.    

Earnings Growth | Caribbean Cream’s performance in fiscal year 2012 was impressive as turnover increased 47.44 percent to $431 million while pre tax profits more than tripled to $31 million. This year seems set to surpass 2012 as nine month numbers are already ahead of those for the prior year for the same period.

Pre tax profits for fiscal year 2010 slipped 19.7 percent to $5.3 million, mainly due to increased administrative expenses, which climbed 25.5 percent to $37.6 million; selling and distribution costs were up 47.1 percent to $7.5 million and finance costs rose 36.8 percent to $3.9 million—all costs associated with a planned expansion.

After fiscal year 2010, management invested in production, which helped to grow turnover by 38.2 percent to $292.3 million, and pre tax profits 36.2 percent to $7.2 million in fiscal year 2011, as net profit margin remained low. Gross profit margins have remained consistently above 25 percent for the last four fiscal periods.

The company is sensitive to changes in foreign exchange rates as they import most of their major ingredients. These fluctuations will impact its margins from time to time as input costs adjust accordingly.

Borrowings climbed in the November quarter on that of the prior year as well as inventory, which exploded no doubt to meet high Christmas demand and also to possibly counter the foreign exchange risk from devaluation. At the 2012 year end, debt to equity was almost 1:1 compared to 2.4:1 in the prior year.  As of November 2012, the ratio was slightly less than 1:1 even as borrowed funds climbed to $94 million.

The current asset ratio is low, well below norm, but the company over its recent history carries low levels of receivables and inventory except for except for an substantial increase in the amount tied up at November 2012.

Concerns | There were errors in the report of the auditors that were included in the prospectus. Clearly, the auditors, the executives, the board, brokers, the stock exchange nor the Financial Services Commission (FSC) picked up the errors. Some investors may well ask- if there are errors, could there not be more lurking in the dark?

I am recommending it as a BUY for this stock as the performance to date, suggests strong sales and profit going forward into 2014 fiscal year.

Kremi_Analysis