JSE: Carreras’ day but Lasco Financial now up 200%

Wednesday, 24th July 2013 | Scotia Investments did some big trades on Wednesday in Carreras Limited as the brokerage house executed three large trades in the stock on behalf of clients. The first lot of 3,907,474 at $52.25 valued at $204,165,517, the second lot of 3,792,847 also at $52.25 valued at $198,176,256 and 2,347,297 units at $52.25 with a value of $122,646,268.

The stock lost 26 cents in trading. The Carreras’ trades were by far the largest on a day when 18.85 million units traded with a value of $613.65 million on the market. In spite of the negative news about the smoking ban and its impact on the company’s profits, there are still bids buy the stock at close to today’s selling price and about 350,000 units have bids from $51 and above. The total trading in Carreras shares amounted to 10.159 million units at a value of $520.8 million.

Advancing stocks climbed to 14 versus 6 that declined, 11 had no price change at the end of the day. In spite of the positive advance decline ratio the indices all declined except the US dollar index which rose marginally.

Main Market | The all Jamaica Index fell 101 points to close at 88,054 and the main market index fell 57.40 points to close at 86,875.75.

jse_logo150x150Scotia Investments was also the dominant broker in the trading of National Commercial Bank stock as $23.7 million was expended on the trading of 1.2 million shares as the stock closed at $19.50. They were also the major traders in Scotia Group which had trading in 890,000 shares valued at $19 million as the stock closed at $21.50 and gained 30 cents for the day. Jamaica Broilers had a big day, posting a volume of 3.57 million units at a value of $17.8 million as Scotia Investments played a big role in trading the stock. Jamaica Producers traded 158,600 units and closed at $19.20 up 19 cents. Pan Jam gained 50 cents on small volume to close at $52. Sagicor Investments gained $1.97 and closed at $18.50 as 5,000 shares traded, Scotia Investments gained 49 cents in continuation of the see sawing between $26 were there is demand ad $26.50, as 33,947 shares changed hands. Hardware and Lumber stock responded to the improved results released yesterday. In today’s trading the stock closed at $4 with 5,000 units trading but bids have now come in where there were none before for days.

Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares have still not traded after two days of listing but there is a bid of $3 posted for just over 97,000 units which is above the issue price of $2.85.

Proven Investment ordinary shares which are quoted in US dollars traded  1.2 million units valued at US$140,640, the stock lost a fraction of a cent to close at 11.72 US cents.

Junior market | 11 stocks in the junior market traded with Lasco financial reaching a new all-time high at $1.50, the closing price as 203,000 units traded. At the end of December last year, the stock was trading at $4.90 or 49 cents based on the stock split hence the price has gained more than 200 percent in the process.  Lasco Distributors traded 205,600 units to close at $1.42 but traded as high as $1.53 on the day, Lasco Manufacturing chipped in with 243,899 units to close at $1.69 down from $1.80 on Tuesday. Mayberry bought out the 100,000 Blue Power stocks that were on offer at $10.50 for in house purposes, the stock is up 47 cents on the day, leaving only two small offers at $11 and $13.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 6 stocks were higher with 2 stocks having offers lower than their last selling price.

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TTSE: Painfully slow Wednesday

Wednesday, 24th July 2013 | Activity on the Trinidad Stock Exchange was painfully slow on Wednesday as just 5 securities traded, of which 3 advanced and 2 traded firm as 18,244 shares crossed the floor of the exchange valued at $1,403,089.05.

Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago traded 600 shares as high as $71.42 during the day, a new 52 weeks high, but the last traded price was the same as Tuesday at $70.01. West Indian Tobacco Company had 11,004 shares changing hands for a value of $1,298,472 as the stock put on 44 cents to close at $118. Angostura Holdings’ 4,515 shares traded for $40,725. One Caribbean Media chipped in with 1,125 units with a value of $20,250 as the stock price gained 39 cents to close at $18, a new 52 weeks closing high. National Flour Mills added 1,000 shares valued at $790.

Trinidad Cement did not trade but there is a bid at $1.24 which is above Tuesday’s price of $1.21 for 309,751 units.

IC Bid offer indicator| At the end of trading there were 3 stocks with bids higher than the lasts selling price and just one with the offer price being lower than the last price.

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T-bill rates move up again

Interest on Treasury bills rose again in the latest auction held on 24 July 2013. On offer were two instruments seeking to raise $400,000 each for 91 Days and the other of 182 Days duration. Both instruments were oversubscribed, unlike the auction in June when investors shun the longer dated issues.

In the July auction investors bid $700,977,500 for the 91 day issue and $ 513,898,400 for the 182 Days. The average rates came out at 7.995 percent for the 91 day bill this is up 64.5 basis points over the rate of 7.35 percent in the June auction. The 182 Days instrument came out at an average rate of 7.88 percent 76 basis points higher than the 7.12 percent average out turn in June. Investors however got rates ranging from 6.24999 to 7.84951 percent for the short date bill and 5.99999 to 8.74999 for the longer bill which were allotted in full. The rate reached as high as 7.995 percent for 24.2 percent of the allotment for the 91 day instrument and 9 percent for a very small portion of the 182 day t-bill.

FX: Market back to norm

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Tuesday, 23 July 2013 | The level of trading in the forex market returned to normal as purchases accounted for US$30 million and amount sold was US$32 million for all currencies traded. In the day’s trading, more Pounds were sold than purchased as purchases amounted to £1.2 million versus £1.922 million sold, an equal amount of Canadian dollars were sold and bought but there was a moderate amount of US dollar sold over the amount bought.

The US dollar buying rate fell an average of 28 cents and the selling rate inched up by 3 cents. The buying rate for the US dollar climbed $1.47 to close at $97.42 and the selling rate moved up by 96 cents to $99.35. The British Pound gained 95 cents buying to reach $153.71 and selling took place for 62 cents more than on Monday, at $156.30.

The highest buying rates all fell back on the day between 18 cents in the case of the US dollar to $1.85 for the Pound. Only the Canadian dollar lowest buying rate changed, it increased by 42 cents to close at $79.35. All the highest buying rates increased from a low of 21 cents for the US dollar to a high of $1.17 for the Pound. There was no change to the lowest selling rate for the US dollar. The Canadian dollar climbed 45 cents to $95.50 and the Pound by $1.35 to $151.30.

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JSE: Main market in focus

Tuesday, 23 July 3013 | Trading levels have slowed in the junior market as the three Lasco companies that have had frenetic trading since the beginning of June have seen demand taper down after a 10 for one stock split. Trading on the market took place in 26 companies as 2.5 million units traded at a value of $23 million on a day when 8 stocks advanced to 4 declining with 14 traded without a change in price at the end of the trading session.

Junior Market | Nine stocks traded in the junior market, Lasco Financial Services closed at a new all-time high of $1.46 as only 62,700 shares traded. Lasco Distributors traded 413,120 shares and closed at $1.52, up 10 cents and Manufacturing closed at $1.80 up 17 cents with 180,178 units. Paramount traded 119,412 units at $3.30 with no change in the price.

Carreras traded 100,650 units valued at $5.3 million as the stock closed at $52.51, the same closing price as Monday. Grace had 90,530 units changing hands at a value of $5 million, closing at $56. JMMB closed up 49 cents at $8.50 with 407,496 units and absorbed $3.46 million in the process. Jamaica Producers lost 99 cents to close at $19.01 with just over 9,000 units traded. National Commercial Bank traded 39,170 units, closed up 45 cents at $19.50. Sagicor Life chipped in with 56,000 units, all traded at $9, the same price as the close on Monday. Scotia Group traded 93,000 units at $21.20 costing $2 million.

IPO listing | Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares which was listed today, did not trade but the stock had bids for 149,000 at the offer price of $2.85 and an offer at $3.26 to sell 20,000.

The bid offer indicator has just one stock with a bid higher than the last selling price and 2 lower.

Company results | The quality of company results will have a telling effect on the market going forward. At the end of today’s trading Hardware & Lumber released impressive profits which are up strongly over 2012 as well as up strongly on the first quarter of this year. The improvement should encourage more interest in the stock.

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TTSE: TCL dominance continues

Tuesday, 23 July 2013 | In Tuesday’s trading on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange, Trinidad Cement took the spotlight trading more than 94 percent of the shares that crossed the floor and more than a half of the value of trades, as 802,723 shares for a value of $963,268 changed hands. Since IC Insider recommended it as a buy in June, the stock is up 26 percent, closing at $1.20. At the end of trading the bid was above the last selling price at $1.21.  Unilever, one of our stocks to watch this week, had a bid at $56 compared with last selling price of $55.

There was trading in 14 securities of which 3 advanced, 5 declined and 6 traded firm. Clico Investment Fund enjoyed the day’s largest gain, increasing 17 cents to $21.99 as 5,600 of the fund’s shares valued at $123,144 traded. Readymix (West Indies) suffered the day’s greatest loss, falling 49 cents to close at $21.99 with just 5 shares trading as it reached a new 52 weeks low. Sagicor Financial Corporation had a volume of 35,457 shares traded for $220,739. Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago contributed 2,102 units valued at $147,161, while ANSA McAL added 1,305 shares valued at $86,613.

Trading amounted to 850,676 shares valued at $1,686,190 as one stock reached 52 weeks low and one a 52 weeks high.

The number of stocks with bids that are higher than the last selling price is 2 with none having offers lower than the last sale price. At the end of Monday’s trading, 4 stocks had offers lower than the last selling price, 4 of these traded today wiping out the difference. The market has a large number of stocks without bids for some time, at the end of trading there were 10 such stocks. This is not a very bullish sign as the prices of many of these stocks will have to make a steep decline to encourage buying.

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Business inflation expectations

A recent survey was conducted in May 2013 with 300 respondents showed that business sector expected inflation for the calendar year to be 10.3 percent, which is lower than the 10.6 percent they expected when the April 2013 survey was done. The expected inflation for calendar year 2013 was higher than the outturn of 8.0 per cent for 2012 and the annual point to-point inflation of 9.1 per cent as at May 2013.

In the latest survey respondents’ expectation of inflation 12 months ahead was down to 11.2 percent in the May 2013 survey from the 11.8 percent indicated in the April 2013 survey. Bank of Jamaica is saying that the expectation for lower inflation could have been indicative of the abatement in uncertainty surrounding the Government’s economic programme.

The central bank states that the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) undertakes surveys of businesses on behalf of the Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations about variables which are likely to have an impact on inflation in the near-term. In this regard, the survey captures the perception of Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the future movement of prices, current and future business conditions and the expected rate of increase in wages and salaries. These responses assist the Central Bank in charting future policy decisions.

Business sector expects rates to rise

A survey conducted in May 2013 on behalf of Bank of Jamaica, soliciting the views of executives of the private sector showed that the business sector expects the 180-day T-bill rates to increase to 6.5 percent in the three months hence, up from the 5.4 per cent expressed in the previous survey. In the May 2013 auction, the actual interest rate for the 180-day Treasury bills increased to 6.44 per cent from 6.39 per cent in the April 2013 auction.

The majority of respondents expected that the Bank’s Open Market Operation (OMO) rate would remain the same over the next three months. This was similar to the views conveyed in the April and March 2013 surveys. The percentage of respondents that were of the view that the OMO rate would remain the same increased to 51.3 per cent from 43.0 per cent in the previous survey. The results from the overall survey about expectations for the OMO rate were largely corroborated by the views of respondents in the financial sector

BankofJamaicaBOJThe Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) undertakes surveys of businesses on behalf of the Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations about variables which are likely to have an impact on inflation in the near-term. In this regard, the survey captures the perception of Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the future movement of prices, current and future business conditions and the expected rate of increase in wages and salaries. These responses assist the Central Bank in charting future policy decisions.

H&L – big profits boost

Hardware & Lumber, a Grace Kennedy subsidiary, which recorded moderate increase in sales for the March quarter of this year, accelerated sales a bit in the June quarter at 8.9 percent pace over the second quarter of 2012 compared to a mere 2.4 percent increase in the first. Revenue out turn was $1.744 billion in the latest quarter up from $1.548 billion in the first quarter as well as an increase on the $1.6 billion generated in the second quarter of 2012. Year to June revenues increased to $3.29 billion over the $3.1 billion in 2012.

The second quarter revenues contributed to a big jump in profits for the quarter and the six months as profits jumped to $43.3 million from a revised loss of $1.44 million in 2012. For the six months profits amounted to $52.17 million up from a loss of $6.26 million.

Gross profit margin increased to 26.22 percent in the latest quarter, roughly the same for the six months period, compared to 25.5 percent in 2012. Operating expenses were kept to just $398 million in the June quarter just a few million up from the $391 million spent in 2012, but the six months figure grew quite a bit to $791 million versus $755 million.

HardwareLumber_Bldg150x150“Operating efficiencies were achieved through the rationalization of the staffing model as well as in other areas such as security and utilities. However, there was a significant increase in the costs associated with the company’s pension scheme and other retirement benefits, in keeping with the revision of the accounting rules governing such benefits which became effective January 1, 2013. For the first six-months, these charges increased by $40.7 million compared to the same period last year,” Management stated.

Interest cost also declined for the six months as the company paid down loans which stands at $458 million versus $650 million at June 2012. At the same time cash grew to $376 million compared to $196 million in 2012, but payables climbed to $1.1 billion up from $992 in June 2012 and $694 million at the end of December last year.

While there is a clear sign of a turn-around in the operations, the segment results for agricultural products and equipment reflect a loss of $55 million in the half year results compared to a profit of $129 million. The 2013 figure is only a slight improvement over the loss of $66 million in 2012. There is much room for improvement in the hardware division that could swell the bottom-line if that segment is turned around.

Outlook | Earnings should pick up as the year progresses and IC Insider expects to see earnings for the full year around $2 per share, making the stock very cheap.

Insider call | Hardware & Lumber is an IC Insider Buy Rated stock.

FX: BOJ says not so fast again

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | Jamaica’s central bank signaled to the forex market today “not so fast” in the movement of the Jamaican dollar against its main intervention currency, the US dollar. Our source indicates that the central bank did selective selling to some financial institutions, as such, not all dealers got the central bank’s funds. We were unable to get the amount that BOJ sold to the system but data of past trading Mondays suggest that the figure could be around US$15-20 million.

Since the start of July the amounts bought on Mondays give some indication of the likely amount sold into the system. The July purchases are as follows: Monday July 1 a little more than US$38 million; Monday July 8 nearly US$39 million and Monday July 15 the amount was less at US$30.5 million. In today’s trading, purchases amounted to US$60.4 while selling took place for $57.6 million as the US dollar moved up 19 cents for the buying rate to close at $101.44 and the selling rate slipped back by 19 cents to close at $101.81.

The central bank’s intervention may have arisen from last week’s trading in which US dollars purchased exceeded the amount sold by nearly US$10 million, while the rate kept on slipping. This would have sent a signal that traders may be building up a long position in the currency, even as the actual sale of US dollars was US$4.5 million more than the amount purchased in the week ending July 12th, which was less than the net position last week. These figures are for the US dollar currency alone and ignores surpluses of Pounds and Canadian Dollars that were purchased and may have been converted to US dollars, the currency in greatest demand.

There was buying of C$1.065 million at an average rate of $95.95 at 24 cents less than on Friday but the average selling rate rose to $98.38, up by 33 cents as C$727,200 was sold. The Pound lost value but moderately, on both ends, to close at $152.76 buying and $155.68 selling as dealers bought £2 million and sold just £460,000.

Highest & lowest rates | Except for the highest buying rate for the US dollar which just barely inched up, there were no other changes in the rates for US currency. The Canadian dollar saw dealers spending $2.10 more when buying at the highest levels and 25 cents more at the lowest buying rate. For the sell side, the highest rate put on 32 cents and the lowest 25 cents. The Pound was bought at $2.80 more for the highest buying rate and 66 cents more on the lowest rate for selling. $3.47 was added to the highest rate and just 25 cents on the lowest rate.

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