This weeks’ review comes against the back drop of the main market hitting a record high on Friday in the morning session and the Junior market continuing to eke out modest gains.
Unlike last week when there are several changes to the TOP stocks, there are only two new additions this week. Victoria Mutual Investments and Jamaican Teas are out of the TOP 10 with Berger Paints that fell in price to $18.76 and Caribbean Cream are back in the TOP 10 lists.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.
The past week saw a few results being posted and more are expected this week, including NCB Financial and Proven Investments that entered the TOP 10 last week, both are expected to report positive gains with NCB continuing from increases seen up to the second quarter and Proven that President, Christopher Williams informed IC Insider.com is performing well in all divisions, see Collapse of the JSE US market.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 11.8, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 7.5 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 12.5, this is a good indication of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
IC Insider.com last week stated that there are warning signs of a tsunami that is on the way for the market. During last week one more sign came to the fore with a sharp drop in Treasury bill rates again, this coupled with scarcity of supply for many stocks. Investors seem to be going about their business as if prices will remain around current levels for a prolonged period. Late comers to buying stocks who try to join the party will find get stocks but at a much higher prices as the year rolls on and that is confirmed by technical indicators in both the Main and Junior markets.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
2 new IC TOP 10 listings
Stocks to Watch this week
There are clear signs that the usual summer rally has started on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, with the main market hitting new highs on all five trading days during the past week, and ending at record closing highs on all, except on Friday.
The main market entered record territory, minutes after opening on Friday with the All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 1,082.40 points to an intraday record of 340,315.50 and the JSE Index rising 986.19 points to a record 310,065.85. The market is being steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index for the main market and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line.
The market saw many developments that confirm that a bull market is in place. Mayberry Jamaican Equities initial public offer, opened and closed on Monday, having been oversubscribed and Indies Pharma public offer opened on Thursday and closed on Friday but Stanley Motta remains opened after more than a week since the offer opened.
Elsewhere in the secondary market, Jamaica Broilers traded briefly at a record high of $33, others trading at 52 weeks’ high in the main market are Kingston Wharves trading at $52.03, PanJam Investment at $58.99 and Pulse Investments trading up to $3.50, but 138 Student Living, having fallen to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 the previous week fell even lower in this past week to $3.85,
Former TOP 10 Junior Market listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share, hit at an all-time high of $23 during the week. Current TOP 10 listing, CAC2000 hit a new record high of $10 as well as C2W Music climbed to $1.60, while recently listed Everything Fresh traded at an all-time low of $1.95 since listing in June. US dollar market listings, Margaritaville and Proven Investments both traded at a 52 weeks’ lows during the week as investors seem to lose interest in the US dollar listed shares.
The main market is exhibiting strong bullish signals while the Junior Market seems more subdued apparently waiting on the release of results.
Against this back drop there could be some interesting developments in in the market in the coming days. Based on demand and supply of stocks and trading activities last week the stocks worth watching this week include, Caribbean Cream that jumped sharply on Friday after the company reported improve first quarter results, NCB Financial pulled back in the past week but may be constrained by the $100 mark until the group reports third quarter results by month end. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention as the weeks roll on. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply. In the Junior market, some demand exists for Derrimon Trading, with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units, but the price may be stuck around the $20-23 range with the PE more than 20 times 2018 earnings compared to the market average of 11.4. Stationery and Office Supplies continues to trade around the $8 mark, with limited supply on offer, the stock is worth watching but may require second quarter results to kick the price to another level. With the directors stating that they have discussed the possibility of a stock split in the past, the stock can be expected to be one to see a split probably by the next AGM, investors should be stock piling this one with the price being undervalued. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching. Wisynco seems to have found support just above $9 and is one to watch over the next few weeks as the release of full year result nears, the Jamaican Stock Exchange is another to be watched along with JMMB Group and Seprod.