Consolidated Bakeries’ Q1 Profits Up

Consolidated Bakeries, producers of the well-known Purity brand of baked products, reported profit before tax for the March quarter of $14.2 million, 58 percent more than the corresponding period last year. Profit after tax jumped by 216 percent but the company is unlikely to be paying any taxes for the next five years under the junior market tax incentive. Revenues grew to $172 million, an increase of $32 million or 23 percent over the same period last year.

Management indicated, in a release with the quarterly results, that all key product lines grew during the quarter. Whilst revenues climbed 23 percent gross profit of 38 percent in 2012 fell to 37 percent in the quarter, and the growth in gross profit, was up 18 percent year over year. Operating expenses grew by just under 12 percent. Going forward, the company says they will accelerate operational improvements to combat increased input costs.

These developments sound great. The concerns that investors must be having is that last year’s results for the first half looked good and then, what seemed like a sudden shock, the company announced earnings of a mere $3.7 million, well below the amount reported for the 2012 first half and lower as well than the full 2011 earnings of $12.8 million. Will the market get another surprise? That is difficult to say. Management did indicate that they took a deliberate decision last year to slow production whilst attempting to get their processes right.

Consolidated_Purity150x150The company was listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange in December 2012 with the stock price trading as high as $2.05 but declined to 90 cents after the poor 2012 results were released in March.

The company completed the conversion of the tracking of routes to a computerized hand-held system which facilitates better tracking, monitoring and management of the company’s distribution process, thereby reducing costs and improving sales. Their efforts to improve operations continued with additional adjustments to the  processes and plant organization, including the appointment of both an experienced warehouse and loading manager. As a consequence, the first quarter saw significant improvements in quality and products.

The company continued exports to three overseas markets, and gained additional listings and space with independent retailers, and significantly, a major retail chain in the North America.

Current assets increased to $202 million from $96.8 million over the same period last year, primarily due to the growth in receivables of $32 million and investments and other cash equivalents by $64 million. Current liabilities increased from $69 million to $89 million at a slower pace than current assets due to the capital injection from the IPO in December last year. Consolidated has equity of $485 million, well in excess of loan funding of $48.5 million.

Management stated, “In the coming months we will build on and continue the internal changes of the first quarter, starting with additional branding and our route to market programs. We will be adjusting and or replacing equipment to our production line of single serve and bread products, at the same time increasing exposure and awareness of our brand.”

PurityFinDetails

JSE | Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Pan Jamaica Investment Trust stock jumped $4.08 today to close at $57.60 back to the level it traded at prior to the NDX debt exchange of Government of Jamaica bonds in February this year. Pan Jamaican traded 75,651 units valued at $44.1 million. Grace Kennedy followed up with a gain of $1.75 with the stock getting back to its recent high of $60 while trading just 5,861 shares.

The Jamaican stock market put in a splendid performance today with 27 stocks trading valued $112,141,197 as 21.8 million shares changed hands. Sagicor Investments, accounted for 5.378 million units with a value of $83.55 million, all of the shares were sold and bought within Pan Caribbean brokerage house. Consolidated Bakeries traded over 12.3 million units worth $11.94 million. NCB Capital markets bought 12.11 million units at 90 cents for clients. Mayberry Investments traded 2.068 million units valued at $4.18 million on a day when the number of advancing stocks were in excess of declining ones, almost 3 to 1 as 15 advanced versus 6 declining.

MoneyKeyboard150x150At the end of trading, 8 stocks closed the day with bids higher than the last selling price. There were none with offers lower than the last sale price. One stock made 52-week high as Caribbean Cream, the new listing on the junior market, gained 14 cents to close at $1.15 up 15 percent on the IPO price with 60,000 units trading today. At the end of trading, there were more than 400,000 units on the bid between 94 cents and $1.06 and 265,000 on offer at $1.15 to $1.20.

Other stocks that had noticeable price movements were, Access Financial down 50 cents to $7.50, Blue Power off 55 cents to $6.05, Carreras down 38 cents to $57.52. JMMB climbed 45 cents to $7.50, NCBJ up 35 cents to close at $18.89 as 130,191 shares traded having traded as high as $19. Seprod shed 48 cents and closed at $14.52 on very small volume of 1,500 units.

At the end of trade, the main market index put on 297.88 points closing at 85,693.25 and the All Jamaica Composite closed over the 85,000 mark the first time since early February when it closed at 85,325, today it closed at 85,125. The main market index closed at the highest point today, since it closed at 85,693 on March 6th this year.

The positive advance decline ratio coupled with the number of stocks with bids above last selling price are two factors that say this market is heading higher.

JSEINdicesMay21

Profits up 19% at Jamaican Teas

Jamaican Teas recorded a profit of $51.2 million for the 6 months of its fiscal year ending March. Last year for the same period, the group made $43.2 million, an increase of 18.6%.  Profit in the March quarter this year amounted to $25.7 million versus $22.2 million in the comparative period in 2012, an increase of 15.9%. Return on equity rose to 20 percent. The improved results came from growth in sales by 44% to $528.2 million, versus $365.9 million in the prior year to march. This was due to healthy increases in both export and retail supermarket sales including a supermarket in Savannah La Mar which contributed $36 million for the second quarter, compared to $12.6 million in 2012. However, during 2012 period investments sold contributed more to profits than for this year. As a result the core business contributed more profits than the reported figures suggest. According to management’s report, sale of investments in the March quarter resulted in a loss of $3 million.

Sales at the Kingston supermarket were up on the similar quarter in 2012 and the store in Savannah La Mar enjoyed steady sales during the period. It recorded its first profit in March. Management is hopeful to build on the second quarter performance, effectively wiping out, or reducing the losses experienced in the first half.

Despite tightness in the local and regional economies, the company was able to generate improved sales in the manufacturing business and more importantly in domestic manufacturing sales that contribute proportionately more to profits than either export or retail sales.

The jointly-owned supermarket in Montego Bay continues to show improvement but has not shown profit to date.  Sales in the six months rose 16 percent above the similar period of 2012. As per management, “We enjoyed an encouraging improvement in sales since the start of the quarter, pushing us closer to a break”. The group’s share of the loss is $1.6 million in the latest quarter.

JaTeasArticlechart

Apartment complex | An apartment complex developed by the group on Kingsway will be completed by the end of May or very early in June.  Sale of the units attracted solid buying interest with more than 90 percent having written commitments. The sale of the units is expected to be booked before the end of the financial year in September when ownership would be transferred to the new owners.  The group has plans for more developments now that the first was successfully executed.

Financial strength | The group continues to maintain a healthy financial position with working capital and investments of $388 million and this position should improve when the apartments are fully sold.  Equity was $550 million and will continue to rise.

Image from Behance.net

Image from Behance.net

Borrowings are up to $145 million from $75 million in March 2012, most of the increase relates to loans to partially fund the building of the apartment complex and is expected to be repaid from the sale proceeds. In addition, the group acquired the supermarket building in Kingston and is carrying a medium term loan on it, which was booked last year after the March quarter. The proceeds from the sale of the apartments is more than adequate to cover the total loans on the books.  The group is acquiring a property to house Jamaican Teas operations which will result in discontinuation of rent but there will be interest cost relating to loan-funding for the acquisition.

Outlook | Management says they will continue to see buoyancy in sales after the end of the quarter at all locations. “The equity portion of the investment portfolio has fluctuated with recent market volatility but in recent weeks we have seen some improvement in the prices of some of our investments. There are signs that the local stock market is picking up life and if that continues, the valuation of the investment portfolio should rise in the months ahead, thus improving the equity base of the group.”

Management concluded their report by stating that with the performance for the first 6 months, the pending sale of the apartment complex, as well as sales performance subsequent to the March quarter, suggest that results for the 2013 fiscal year should exceed the 2012 fiscal year barring unforeseen developments. At the annual general meeting, the range for profit given by the company was $125-140 million for the year to September, which works out at earnings per share of 80-83 cents.

JSE: Monday, 20th May 2013

Advancing stocks out-do declining ones again | Trading picked up today as 4,114,189 units valued at over $67,585,621 were traded. National Commercial Bank 1,037,700 units valued at $19.6 million, Pan Jam traded 400,000 units at a value of $421.4 million, Carreras traded 220,989 units valued at $12.667 million, Dolphin Cove  with 816,710 units amounting to $6.6 million, Lasco Financial Services chipped in with 376,000 units valued at $3 million and General Accident Insurance Company with 505,500 units with value of $900,000. The movement and demand for the Lasco Financial shares comes against the background of earnings that are expected to be much higher than last year and should be released late this week or early next.

Major price movements were Grace falling $1.75 to $58.25, Kingston Wharves up 35 cents to close at a 52 weeks high of $7, Lasco Financial up 30 cents to $8.10 a 52 weeks high, NCB losing 44 cents to $18.55 and Scotia Investments down 50 cents to $23.50.

There was a positive advance/decline ratio of 12 to 5 thus maintaining the mildly bullish trend seen in the last 2 weeks. Supply of stocks at current price levels for the more attractive stocks are proving harder to come by suggesting that buyers will need to up their bid prices if they are to get the quantities they want. The number of stocks with bids above their last sale continue to show up in the market, an indication that sellers not prepared to sell as low as the last selling prices.

The JSE indices moved up moderately with two reflecting no change as no stocks associated with them traded.

JSEINdicesMay20

Gleaner profits face major challenges

The Gleaner Company was able to hold down administrative, distribution and other operating expenses the first quarter of 2012 and yet the operations still ended up with a loss of $16 million, after benefiting from a tax credit of $4 million. In 2012, the company that is involved primarily in the production of newspapers, made a small profit of $25 million. To be fair, the March quarter is not the company’s best period for making a profit as that usually happens in the last half of the year and particularly in the third quarter.

That said, the profit for the full 12 months of last year was made based on investment income as there was an operating loss before investment income. That is not a good signal going forward. The company raised rates for advertising by effectively modifying the discount levels granted to advertisers. How much more revenue that will generate is left to be seen. The reality is that they need to raise revenues without alienating customers in order to boost the bottom-line. That is not easily done in a tough and tight economy.

GleanerLogo150x150Revenues in the quarter were flat coming out at $774.7 million compared to $774.4 million in 2012. Gross profit fell $39 million, down to $360 million thus ensuring there would have been nothing left to cover other costs.

The reality is that the Gleaner is having a torrid time. First, with the exit of one telecom carrier from the local market which resulted in less competition, there was a reduction of advertising revenue for all media houses. Secondly, Internet access has reduced the desire and in many cases, the need to purchase newspapers. Not to be forgotten is the variety of media outlets that dilutes advertising revenues for each media house.

Financial status | The Gleaner is in a healthy financial position with a fair amount of cash and short term investments and little debt. A few years ago they sold off the subsidiary Sangster’s Book Store. That decision seems like a smart move as the sale gave them cash inflows to help through a difficult period including some recent years of losses.

Stock outlook | The company’s stock price has fallen to a low of $1.10 recently and has enjoyed a small bounce since to reach $1.20. It will be difficult to see wide spread interest, though the price could be considered cheap based on likely earnings. The only problem is these earnings are not likely to be sustainable. Sooner than later, the core business needs to start delivering profits.

What’s really up at Seprod?

Revenues are down to $3.6 billion for the March quarter for Seprod, who manufactures and processes oils, fats, cornmeal, soaps, milk, sugar and run a cattle farm. In the 2012 period, the group recorded revenues of $3.7 billion. Profit followed in the path of revenues slipping to after tax profit of $231 million compared to $292 million in the 2012 first quarter. While sales declined, cost of sales moved up, resulting in just over $100 million less gross profit. Costs in other areas were kept well within the amounts for the previous year. Had it not been for a significant foreign exchange gains, the decline in profits would have been far worse than reported.

It was the cash generated from operations that is eye catching with nearly $500 million generated in the first quarter this year. Those figures translate to $2 billion per annum. However, these numbers include income from the sugar operations and for the rest of the year this operation will provide no sales for fresh inflows. The company also benefited from $95 million in FX gains which is unlikely to recur this year. Hence, the cash inflows will be much less and more likely to be just over a billion dollars for the full year. Loan payment of $330 million has to be made in the next 12 months and could reduce the net cash inflows along with the payment of dividends which would use up more than $400 million.

Seprodlogo150x150Seprod has $3.7 billion in cash and investments plus $253 million to be collected from short term receivable in the next 12 months from March. The big question is, what are the funds being piled up for?

Sugar operations | Long term loans increased by $977 million in the quarter primarily for use in the sugar operations. The target for sugar production is based on processing 300,000 tonnes of cane that should work out to around 25,000 tonnes of sugar and that all depends on the sucrose contents of the canes. Added to that, St Thomas, where the operations are, has heavy rainfall close to the beginning and the end of the crop each year. The timing to reap is critical in maximizing the quantity of sugar that is extracted from the canes.

Management indicates that the expanded cane farms are already planted and the increased production should be coming in the 2014 crop. The group acquired Bowden Estates with 3,000 acres and another property in the area plus lands that were in bananas are now planted out in cane. For the current year’s crop 18,000 tonnes of sugar were produced at about a break even level. If the important things go well and they make close to next year’s target, the operations should end with a profit.

SeprodCaneFactory150x150Management states that the sugar company is critical to them as a foreign exchange earner for the group. The sugar factory can be pushed up to grind 400,000 of cane but no decision has been taken on that. It would require major capital injection to get to that level of production. The cost of energy for the group is an important area of focus and thought has been given to increase the generation of power at the sugar factory and wheel it to others in the group. The estimate for such a project would be in the order of US$15 million, which would allow for the installation of new broilers to power the factory using bagasse, the byproduct of cane milling, to generate heat and steam for electricity thus cutting the overall energy cost for the group.

The company indicates that they are always on the lookout for acquisition. The funds being built up are to allow for acquisitions when suitable ones arise as well as for capital spend. But the main focus is to fully turn around the Duckenfield sugar operations. That objective is important since Seprod profits have been stagnated subsequent to their investment in sugar production. It has proven much more difficult than most of the directors first thought possible. At the first annual general meeting, one shareholder warned them of the challenges they were going to meet. Three to four years later and after more capital injection than originally contemplated, management has had enough time and experience to appreciate the unsolicited advice.

Notwithstanding the challenges faced, the group is in a very healthy financial state with $9 billion in equity and a relatively small amount of debt. Working capital is also in good nick as well.

Stock outlook | The company’s stock last traded at $15 and seems fully valued based on current market conditions. Investors will need to bear in mind the softening in the price of sugar on the world market and commodity prices in general which could push up the breakeven level and continue to have a drag on profits as well as eat up more capital. These risk factors need to be factored in when considering the investment in this stock.

Yes and no to dividends

It has come as no surprise that Pan Jamaican Investment Trust has decided to forgo the payment of a dividend, a decision made at the board meeting held on the 16th of May. The group has been making payments of 50 cents per quarter but upped it to $1.10 in March. The directors stated “having paid $1.10 in March 2013, the Directors agreed that it would not be prudent to pay another dividend at this time and will consider another dividend in the third quarter”. The increased amount was apparently due to a decision by government to increase withholding tax from 5 percent to 15 percent.

SVL to pay 8 cents | The Board of Directors of Supreme Ventures Limited declared a dividend of $0.08 per share payable on June 17, 2013 to shareholders on record as at June 3, 2013. The ex-dividend date is May 30, 2013.

JMMB to acquire 100% of IBL

Jamaica Money Market Brokers Limited (JMMB) has advised of its intention to acquire 100% of the shareholdings in Intercommercial Banking Group Limited (IBL Group). JMMB currently owns 50% of the shares of IBL Group which comprises Intercommercial Bank Limited and Intercommercial Trust and Merchant Bank Limited. The IBL Group is based in Trinidad and Tobago.

jmmb150x150Last year JMMB acquired all the shares of Capital & Credit Financial Group which increased the assets and profits of JMMB. The full acquisition of IBL was slated from as far back as 2012, when the selling shareholder indicated their desire to sell. This acquisition is in line with JMMB’s plans to be a dominant player in a number of the Caribbean countries. The group has acquired entities in the Dominican Republic and could well make further inroads there in the future. It is felt that there are many opportunities in that country for expansion by acquisition for the group.

JMMB is expected to report full year’s profit by the end of this month. At the end of December 2012, JMMB made a net profit of J$3.19 billion and earnings per share of J$1.95 for the nine month period ended 31 December 2012. The results include a one-off gain of J$1.61 billion from acquisition of Capital & Credit Financial Group. JMMB will likely be hit with a big charge for the debt swap of government bonds thus negating the gains made from the CCFG acquisition.

D&G will pay 10¢ dividend

Desnoes & Geddes (D&G) will be paying the second interim dividend relating to this fiscal year which ends in June of $0.10 per share payable on June 25, 2013 to shareholders on record as at June 7, 2013. The ex-dividend date is June 5, 2013.

D&G just reported a rise in profits to 37 cents per shares for the 9 months to March after taking a hit for staff separation of $152 million in the March quarter. The proposed payment brings the total dividend for the year to 30 cents. Demand for the shares has increased since the announcement was made of a likely second dividend and the release of the quarterly results. The stocks traded as high as $5 from around $4.15 that it has been trading at for months.

Both Scotia Group and Scotia Investments are expected to announce dividends on the 24th of May. Based on past practices, the former should be paying 40 cents per share and the latter 45 cents per share. The payments will most likely take place at the early part of June.

JSE: Thursday, 16th May 2013

Bullish signs are present | The Jamaica stock market registered gains in the main market index as First Caribbean International Bank gained $1.50 to close at $103 while trading just 2,537 shares. The All Jamaica Composite index fell, however, in spite of a positive advance decline ratio. Trading in the market was characterised by heavy cross trading carried out primarily by MVL Stockbrokers. The cross trades helped the volume reach 10.7 million units with a value of $93.9 million.

Two stocks reached 52 weeks high in trading while there was demand for stocks with prices above the last selling price that went unfilled at the end of trading. Blue Power reached $6 up 15 cents with a volume of 913,000 units traded by Mayberry which they bought for their own account. At the end of trading, they had a bid for 200,000 at $6. Kingston Properties traded more than 2 million shares and gained 51 cents to close at $4.51, NCB gained 28 cents to close at $18.50 with 215,300 shares trading. Scotia Investments in its up- today-down-tomorrow shed $3 in trading 452,185 shares with most being a cross and closed at $23.50.

At the close, the junior market looked very bullish as there is a general standoff between buyers and sellers with bids and offers being very wide.

JSEINdicesMay16