NCB Financial still key stock to watch

NCB closed $2 higher on Friday.

Bulls pushed he Jamaican stock market, to new heights last week, with more gains expected this week with the strong likelihood that the Junior Market will clear the historical high reached in 2017..
NCB Financial played an important role in the market movement last week for the main market and Derrimon Trading chipped in for the Junior Market, these were not the only contributors to the gains in in the market last week.
Investors should keep their eyes on a number of stocks this week. NCB that closed on $115, should move higher this week as demand continues to build and with limited supply on offer. Scotia Group last trade was at $59.50 but the price could pull back before they release results for the July quarter on Wednesday. Those results could set the stage for price movements over the next few weeks. With PE ratios rising even a modest increase in profits could see the price moving into record territory.
Grace Kennedy may not be ready to break out of the $60 range as yet but it’s a stock to keep an eye on. Caribbean Cement keeps trading between $46 to $50, but there appears no real desire to move the price forward. Kingston Wharves closed the past week at a record high of at $68.50 and seems poised to move higher but the PE ratio of 44 is compared to a market average of 14, is scary. Supply of the stock remains low, with just two offers of 6,813 shares are displayed. Sygnus Credit Investments picked up last week buoyed by full year results in line with expectations of US$1.4 million. Demand should carry over into the current week and could lift the price further. Jamaica Producers has very limited volume on offer mostly in the higher $20 region while demand is building at $19 and just below.
In the Junior market, Indies continue with strong demand existing for the stock, with news of potential acquisition and new products, the stock is worth watching for more gains. Demand is building for Elite Diagnostics while supply has waned. General Accident could move higher as more demand comes in for it with limited selling, but investors may not want to be more aggressive with this stock at this time. If the company were to announce expansion into the Eastern Caribbean it may well make a difference.
Caribbean Flavours continues to slowly move higher and could do the same this week. There is no certainty the Derrimon Trading will rise any higher now that the price is in the mid three to four dollar level but must be watched. Medical Disposables, should be on the watch list for investors.
Stocks with scarce supplies that could spring surprises include Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Salada Foods, Seprod and Scotia Group.
The Junior Market supplies continue to be limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, General Accident, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and Stationery and Office Supplies.
An overall view of stocks indicates that the main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below. The Junior Market now at a 15 months’ high, is being steered by an upward rising long-term support line and a golden cross. The golden cross is a very strong bullish long-term signal.

3 new additions to IC TOP 10 stocks

Main Event is back in TOP 10.

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, racked up 6 consecutive days of record close on Friday, while the Junior market closed the week just 63 points short of the record close in 2017.
The gains in the two markets is driving the PE ratio of the market higher with the overall PE for the Junior Market rising from to 13 and the main market from 13.7 last week to 13.7 and 14 respectively, this week. Recent movement in the PE suggest that average PE for the market will end 2018 around 18 and 20 by the end of January as conditions continue to favour stocks as the preferred investment of choice along with real estate.
The Top 10 has three changes at the end of the week as movement in prices was the sole factor influencing the change. Caribbean Producers and Main Event dropped sharply in price on Friday and reentered the top list. While Caribbean Producers declined due partially to lower full year’s profit than was expected butt should recover as improved results for the 2019 fiscal year should be enhance with efficiency improvements, the sharp decline in the price from $7 to $5.20 of Main Event on modest volume of less than 7,000 shares is unclear, except for a bid gap between where some demand was and the offers. Access Financial and Fosrich Group dropped out of the Junior Market TOP 10 after rising in price and Sygnus Credit Investments having risen by 50 cents to $12.50 regained enough ground to be pushed out of the top list and allowed Berger Paints to return to the list.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 8.7 up from 8.5 last week, as the market continues to revalue the multiple higher. The latest valuation compares to an average PE for the overall market of 13.7, based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE is now 8.5 and is the same level as last week, for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 14.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 36 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Access, Fosrich, JMMB now in IC TOP 10

Both the Jamaica Stock Exchange, main and Junior markets reached higher levels during the past week, with the main market hitting a series of new record highs. The coming weeks should see more gains as investors seek out opportunities as fixed interest returns have tanked.
The Top 10 has 3 changes, with Medical Disposables and Caribbean Producers moving out and making space for Access Financial and Fosrich Group in the Junior Market and JMMB Group coming in for is Berger Paints, with the latter jumping to $21.50 by the end of the week from $18 the week before.
Access Financial produced decent June quarter results with profit rising 16 percent to $217 million from $188 million for the 2017 quarter. The company is in the process of another acquisition, this time overseas, this should continue to help boost profit going forward. Fosrich posted good second quarter results and is on target to reach IC Insider.com’s forecasted earnings of 30 cents per share. Fosrich too, could be making an acquisition later this year, or early 2019, unofficial, but credible reports suggest. JMMB Group posted good first quarter results with a 59 percent increase in net profit. Some of the strong gains came from the relatively sharp fall in the value of the Jamaican dollar in the period that is not expected to continue.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks average 8.5 up marginally from 8.4 last week, as the market continues to revalue the multiple higher. The latest valuation compares to an average PE for the overall market of 13, based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE is now 8.5 and is up from 8, last week, for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13.7, a clear indication of the level of potential gains that can be made by owning these stocks. Work done by IC Insider.com suggests that the PE ratio is likely to end 2018 around 16 to 18 times earnings, as investors continue to upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels. The latest government bond offer with a 4.58 years tenor, was heavily oversubscribed, resulting in rates dropping to 3.95 percent, suggesting that investors are satisfied that the economic policies will continue to lead to low inflation for a considerable time. These rates suggest more funds will be going into stocks as liquidity remains high in the financial system.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 35 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 38 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

NCB on high watch alert

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The stock worth watching this week is NCB Financial Group that jumped last week to $110, a price last seen last year November. With limited supply for sale and the year-end approaching, this stock seems set for $150 by early 2019, if not before.
NCB Financial Group recorded net profit of $20.9 billion for the nine months ended June, with profit attributable to stockholders of $20.7 billion, for an increase of 40 percent over the prior year. The figure includes one off gains of $4.4 billion from acquisition of a subsidiary. Importantly, third quarter profits rose a strong 30 percent to $6.8 billion over the 2017 quarter.
Grace Kennedy is another of the main market stocks to keep an eye on as it slowly tries to move higher. The price of Caribbean Cement has been seesawing between $45 and $52, but in a bull market one never knows when the break will come. Kingston Wharves close with the bid at $61 to but 58,300 shares and last traded at $53. In the Junior market, Indies Pharma continues to scale new highs with strong demand existing for the stock. General Accident could move higher as more demand comes in for it, with limited selling.
Caribbean Producers has been trading well with an upward bias and could continue in this vein until full year’s results are released. Caribbean Flavours seems to be following it parent, Derrimon Trading and continues to rise on limited selling volume. Medical Disposable sold down during the past week and could recover in the coming days.
Regardless of what happens to individual stocks, there is little doubt that the summer rally is on for Jamaica stocks and is being helped by some good results for a number of the companies. The rally is expected to continue until year end barring any major negative development.

Kingston Wharves stock price sets to hit $61 

Stocks with scarce supplies that could spring surprises include, Barita Investments, Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Salada Foods, Seprod and Scotia Group. The main market is not the only segment with limited supplies. The Junior Market supplies continue to be limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Blue Power, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Caribbean Producers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, General Accident, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables, Stationery and Office Supplies and tTech.
An overall view of stocks indicates that the main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below. The Junior Market now at a 15 months’ high, is being steered by an upward rising long-term support line and a golden cross. The golden cross is a very strong bullish long-term signal.

Just 1 new addition to IC TOP 10

The bullishness continued on Jamaica Stock Exchange, driving the main market to more record highs and hitting more than 352,000 points on Friday, while the Junior Market traded at a 15 months’ high.
Half year earnings season is almost over with only Jamaica Broilers and Scotia Group left to report for the main market. Some results were excellent and most were okay, confirming what was already telegraphed to investors by earlier results. Regardless, with interest rates now under 2 percent for short term government and the central bank’s instruments, the bull market is clearly on. The chronic shortage of many of the stocks continue to put upward pressure on prices and moving the PE ratios higher as well.
Medical Disposables is the only new addition this week, to the TOP 10 coming at the expenses of FosRich Group as the price of the former, dropped to $5.10 from $6.40 at the end of the past week. General Accident has been at the top of the Junior Market list for a long time, enjoyed a bounce in the price to $3.80 by the end of the week, helped by half year results that showed profit rising from $8 million in 2017 to $95 million in the half year, with the quarter up from a loss of $9 million to a profit of $66 after tax. IC Insider.com also down graded earnings for the full year to 45 cents per share and the stock now sits at 6th spot in the list. The PE is just 8.4 and will go higher.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 8.4 up from 7.9 last week, as the market continues to revalue the multiple higher. The latest valuation compares to an average PE for the overall market of 13, based on 2018 estimated earnings.The main market PE is now 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13.5, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks. Work done by IC Insider.com suggests that the PE ratio is likely to end 2018 around 16 or 17 times earnings, as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels. In addition, the latest Treasury bill offer saw rates dropping to 1.7 percent on the 91 days instrument and 1.88 percent on the 182 days instrument. These rates suggest more funds will be going into stocks as liquidity remains high.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 35 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

4 new additions to IC TOP 10

The bullishness continued on Jamaica Stock Market during the past week with the main market reaching new record level on Thursday and the Junior Market closing at the highest level since November 3, last year.
Several companies released results during the week, some showed strong gains and others were in line with the prior year’s period or slightly below and some were in line with expectations, investors reacted accordingly. The chronic shortage of many of the stocks continue to put upward pressure on prices. Following the release of results some companies profit forecast were adjusted. This resulted in Radio Jamaica and Palace Amusement falling from the TOP 10. Palace forecast for 2019 fiscal year is now placed at $100 per share up from earnings of $96 for 2018 including gain on sale of property. Key Insurance reported another quarter of losses and full year’s earnings were revised downwards putting it outside the top listing. Indies Pharma, the other Junior Market stock to jump ship, rose to $2.36 after listing earlier in the week and is up 57 percent from the IPO price of $1.50.
Paramount Trading fell to $2.10 on low volume to jump into the list and Lasco Distributors fell to $3.85 climbed in as well. Paramount is now in a new fiscal year and is expected to record much improved results over the outturn for the year to May as the company enjoys the benefits of increased revenues and profit from the two new ventures started earlier this year in chlorine, bleach and manufacturing of lubricants. Lasco reported improved results of the year to March with the first quarter to June this year recording improvement over 2017 an indication for increased sales and profit in 2019.
Existing TOP 10 stock, Caribbean Cement continues to undergo wild swings in prices and traded as high as $56 during the past week but closed the week at $47.50, on Friday as supply has virtually dried up, not surprising with the company cutting finance cost and reports of several projects slated to come on stream later this year. Berger Paints moved down from $21 to $18 during the past week as direct cost rose sharply by 46 percent in the June quarter to negate a 35 percent rise in revenues but profit after tax rose 13 percent over 2017.
Salada Foods was recently in the Top 10 but moved out based on increased price, reenters with a fall in price to $17 and benefits from improved nine months’ results suggesting earnings of $2 per share. Management expressed concerns as to the impact that the imposition of a cess on coffee could have on sales. Sygnus Credit Investment is a new entrance to the main market and enters as the price fell sharply during the week to $10, but closed with the bid at $10.50.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.9 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12.5, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks, currently. Work done by IC Insider.com suggest that the PE ratio is likely to end around 16 or 17 times earnings by year end, as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels. In addition, the latest Treasury bill offer, saw rates dropping to 1.7 percent on the 91 days instrument and 1.88 percent on the 182 days instrument. These rates suggest more funds will be going into stocks as liquidity remains high.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 37 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Profit results could ignite market

There is little doubt that the summer rally is on for Jamaica stocks and is being helped by some good results for a number of the companies. Release of results over the next two days could be a huge catalyst for the market in the days ahead.
Last week a number of stocks traded at 52 weeks’ highs or historical highs. Profit results are expected to flood the market over the next two days and could have a big impact on prices.
Last week a number of on the Watch list traded at record high levels and more of that is expected this week.
Stocks with scarce supplies and could spring surprises include Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Salada Foods, Seprod and Scotia Group. The main market is not the only segment with limited supplies. The Junior Market supplies continue to be limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Blue Power, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Caribbean Producers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, General Accident,Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and Stationery and Office Supplies.
The main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index and the Junior Market that is at a 9 months’ high, is being steered by an upward rising long-term support line and the start of a golden cross. The golden cross is a very bullish long-term signal.

Medical Disposables out AMG in TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Market indices chalked up more records last and closed the week at another record high on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets continue the usual summer bounce.
A number of positive results and chronic shortage of many of the stocks are helping in putting upward pressure on prices resulting in three changes to the IC TOP 10 at the end of the week.
Medical Disposables rose to $6.40 at the end of the week and was the sole stock moving out of the TOP 10 and AMG Packaging returned to the TOP 10. Caribbean Cement traded as high as $50 on Friday as supply has virtually dried up, not surprising with the company cutting finance cost and reports of several projects slated to come on stream later this year. Berger Paints also moved higher to $21 on Friday and remains scarce. Iron Rock jumped to a new high of $4.07 on Friday as the company shows promise of making a profit sooner than later.
The coming days will see a flood of quarterly results be released and could impact the prices of stocks.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.9 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8.2 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks. Work done by IC Insider.com suggest that the PE ratio is likely to end around 16 times earnings by year as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 34 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 39 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Grace set to make big price leap

Grace Kennedy traded at a 52 weeks’ high on JSE on Friday..

The Jamaica stock market is at an interesting stage, with supply of many stocks offered for sale, getting more scarce by the day, while interest rates are at their lowest levels in Jamaica’s history but are most are valued  at levels when interest rates were in the teens.
The main market has gained 8,387.30 points in July, and is now a record high as of Friday with gains of 9,486.57 since the start of July, thus mirroring the start of the usual summer rally on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, while the Junior Market continues to bounce and is now at a 9 months’ high.
Liquidity is very high and forcing interest rates lower as investors try to place funds on hands. As liquidity rise in the market supply of stocks is on the decline. Some of stock with scarce supplies include Grace Kennedy that has just one offer priced at $80 when the market closed on Friday, NCB Financial that is now trading over $100 is not far behind with limited offers. It has been years that the supply of Grace stock has been this low and suggest a big upward price move.

The All Jamaica Composite index now braking out of a narrow upward sloping channel going back to November 2017.

Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, JMMB Group, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Seprod and Scotia Group with only 362,000 units on offer are amongst some that have very limited supplies being offered for sale on the market. But the main market is not the only segment with limited supplies.Over in the Junior market where demand is not as great as in 2017, supplies are limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Blue Power, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and Stationery and Office Supplies. Caribbean Producers closed trading at $5.80 at the end of the previous week and ended this past week at $6.22 and may well go higher this coming week as it closed with a bid at $6.20. A number of these stocks could lead the break out of the markets in a big way when investors on a whole come to the realization that with interest rates now below 2 percent,

Medical Disposables profit jumps 49 percent before foreign exchange loss in Q1.

that the old accepted PE ratio of 10 being reasonable to value stocks, is no longer accepted and that ratios of 20 to 30 will become the norm going forward. Investors only need to look at stocks in in Trinidad and Tobago where PEs have been in the 20 level for years to understand where we will be heading in the not too distant future.
The main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index and the Junior Market that is at a 9 month high, is being steered by an upward rising long term support line and the start of a golden cross.

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Exchange ended at a record close on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets keep moving higher resulting changes to the IC TOP 10.
At the close on Friday, Proven Investments ended at 19 US cents and fell out of the top list and is replaced by Victoria Mutual Investments. Jetcon Corporation and Paramount Trading dropped out of the top flight, to be replaced by Fosrich Group and Medical Disposables. IC insider.com lowered profit forecast for Paramount with the company showing only a small profit of less than a million dollars in the fourth quarter compared to nearly $11 million in 2017 after gross profit rose 29 percent or $28 million. Jetcon squeezed out by price changes, elsewhere Medical Disposables rose to $5.80 but made it back in the list with strong profit out turn for the first quarter to June and an upgrade of earnings for the full year, of 65 cents per share from 60 cents.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 38 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.