Jamaica Broilers is buy rated

IC Insider is projecting a doubling of earnings for the current year ending in April 2014 for Jamaica Broilers. We project profits to hit $2.22 billion, which translates to $1.85 per share, up from the $1.1 billion reported in its latest audited results.

The improvement is expected from restoration of the gross margin for the broiler and feed business to levels that preceded the 2013 fiscal year, as well as increased sales and margin in the ethanol segment from full production compared to only partial production for most of last year. The ethanol operation generated the bulk of the profit in the April quarter of $260 million on revenue of $500 million compared to only $74 million on revenues of $1.36 billion for the nine months to January this year. Just maintaining the profitability in this segment, assuming that the other areas hold up as well as they did in the last year, earnings would likely grow by about $750 million or a little more than 60 cents per share.

The 2013 profit resulted in earnings per share of 91 cents based on 1.2 billion shares issued and arose from a 12.5 percent increase in revenues to $26.7 billion. IC Insider is projecting revenues of $29.8 billion for 2014, representing 11.6 percent more than in 2013.

While the increased results for the full year may not seem impressive as seen by the lack of reaction in the stock market to the results, the final numbers reflect a major recovery from the end of January as profit was down for the nine months from $687 million to $562 million. The last quarter profit jumped by 114 percent suggesting that this trend could continue well into the new fiscal year and is in keeping with the above forecast.

Jamaica-Broilers-Group_logo150x150Management’s Comments | In releasing the January results, the company management stated, “Gross profits were negatively impacted by increased US$ costs for corn and soya bean residue — our main feed ingredients. This, in addition to the depreciation in the value of the Jamaican currency, has resulted in continuing cost increases. Management felt constrained during this quarter from fully passing on these cost increases in selling price adjustments.

“Distribution and administrative costs reflect increases when compared to this quarter last year due to a number of unexpected items of expenditure. For much of this quarter our Co-Generation electricity operation was out of service. During this time over $50million in fixed costs were carried in administrative expenses while Jamaica Public Service invoices were charged to the Best Dressed Chicken Processing Plant. The Co-generation plant came back into service in mid-January. In addition, costs were incurred in relation to organizational strengthening and an assessment by the Tax Authorities, related to GCT deferred on imports.

The Ethanol Division maintained production under tolling contracts at 100% of capacity during this quarter. The segment result for this Division reflects a positive $81 million for the quarter; with the year-to-date result now showing $74million versus the negative $7 million at the end of the second quarter. Also, the build out in the Haiti operations is continuing with ever increasing sales of Haitian produced baby chicks, feed, layer birds, table eggs and processed chicken.”

Balance sheet | JBG was able to reduce the levels of inventories carried from sales to inventories of 7 times to 9 times, but it did not stop there, as inventories actually fell by $400 million, while at the same time, receivables climbed by $500 million at year end. The group took on more debt to fund asset acquisitions during the year as net debt climbed $1.38 billion to reach $5.49 billion but equity is up by $1.3 billion.

To read the full report Jamaica Broilers major profit gains, click here

TTSE: PE ratio chart

In a market with stocks that trade at high PE ratios, this PE Chart shows the potential for price growth and bargains that can be had on the Trinidad Stock Exchange (as of May 2015).

 

 

Major management changes at D&G

Desnoes & Geddes Limited (DG) has advised that Jed Dryer, Finance Director, has come to the end of his three year rotation at Red Stripe and will be transitioning to a role in Miami as Finance Director for Projects commencing July 1, 2013. Dryer will remain on the boards of DG and Celebration Brands Limited.

Vernon Douglas, Group Financial Controller at Red Stripe will be Acting Finance Director effective July 1, 2013. As a result of the reorganisation of the operations in D&G, the role of Human Resources Director will no longer exist as of June 30, 2013. Lisa Lewis, Human Resources Director, Red Stripe will therefore no longer be working in this capacity as of June 30, 2013. Lisa will be resigning from the Board of Directors and Board of Trustees for the pension plan as at that date. She will be working as HR Director for Projects, Diageo WestLAC, from July 1, 2013 to September 30, 2013. After September 30, 2013 she will be leaving Diageo to pursue other interests.

D&GRedStrip_Banner600x250Ali McLennan, former Diageo Global Beer, People and Talent Manager, will be Acting Head of HR for the company effective July 1, 2013. Marguerite Cremin Chung, Head of Corporate Relations will be taking the role of Head of Corporate Relations for Central America and the Caribbean effective July 1, 2013. Her replacement will be the subject of a future announcement. Daan De Kroon, Head of Red Stripe International & Licensed Brewing will be taking up the role of Export Director, Ypioca, Brazil. His replacement will be the subject of a future announcement.

Profit | Desnoes & Geddes reported improved results for the nine months to the end of March this year with profits after tax being up 30 percent to $1.050 billion, but in the latest quarter profits was down 18 percent to $243 million after tax. The company took a $152 million charge in the third quarter for making workers redundant, flowing from the decision to transfer the sales and distribution of its products to Celebration Brands, a joint venture company with Pepsi. The company’s management indicates that the amount written off in the quarter is 50 percent of the total separation cost.

Overseas production | The results reflect the decision last year to switch the production and sales of Red Stripe to the USA. Export sales are down as a result, but so is cost relating to exports. Local sales grew to $2.67 billion up from $2.56 billion in 2012 and for exports it was $564 million in the current fiscal year versus $450 million.

Scotia Insurance enters 15th year

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[Press release dated June 26, 2013] Scotia Jamaica Life Insurance Company Ltd (Scotia Insurance) marks its 15th year with more than 200,000 policy holders, assets in excess of J$50B, and in 2012, recorded over J$4.1billion in new premiums.

Hugh Reid, President of Scotia Insurance, attributed the company’s success over the last fifteen years to the dedication and commitment of its staff, loyalty of its customers and keen attention to developing products that respond to customers’ needs. “We did all the right things very early, including developing a world class team, listening carefully to our customers and investing heavily in research so that we were able to provide exactly what the market needed, “Mr. Reid said. But a major part of the success it the association with the original parent company, Bank of Nova Scotia, which provides a ready source of customers as well as a strong sense of sfability.

Scotia Insurance’s most well-known product is ScotiaMINT, an interest-sensitive universal life insurance policy and long term savings plan that includes tax-advantaged benefits when invested for five years or more. This product, which heralded the birth of the Company in June 1998, had $41 billion in assets as at December 2012.

Scotia_Hugh Reid150x150Scotia Insurance now offers eight products including the market leading ScotiaBRIDGE, an approved retirement scheme (ARS).  The company has been the ARS market leader every year since 2009 when ScotiaBRIDGE was launched and now has more than J$2.4 billion under management.

Other products offered by the Company include two new whole life products launched last year: Lifetime Security – designed to provide beneficiaries with financial support in the event of death, personal accident or terminal illness and its companion, Life Shelter, which provides coverage for final medical and funeral expenses.

One of the traditionally areas for Scotia Insurance is the provision of Credit Insurance to Scotiabank retail customers who have loans and credit cards. There has been consistent double digit growth in this area which Mr. Reid attributes to increasing awareness among consumers of the importance of a contingency plan their credit facilities, in the event of death or critical illness.

“As we look forward to the next fifteen years, Scotia Insurance will continue its aggressive product expansion which has seen six new products launched in the four years since 2009. The company has acquired a new core life insurance administration system and this platform will allow us to develop new products faster and more efficiently. We look forward to the future knowing that our work and contribution helps to make individuals and families more secure in planning and shaping their lives,” Mr Reid said.

Jamaica Broilers major profit gains

Jamaica Broilers (JBG) is reporting 17 percent improvement in after tax results for the year to April 2013 with profits of $1.1 billion versus $936 million in 2012. Earnings per share is 91 cents for the latest year based on 1.2 billion shares issued.

These results arise from a 12.5 percent increase in revenues to $26.7 billion, a record in nominal terms. Profit growth did not come from the company’s traditional business but from ethanol production and other operations. The increase may not seem impressive when looked at for the full year but it represents a major recovery from the results at the end of January when profit was down for the nine months from $687 million to $562 million, resulting in a comeback in the last quarter with profits jumping by 114 percent. Profit before tax was up less impressively, by 70 percent from $307 million to $521 million.

Jamaica-Broilers-Group_logo150x150Most of the profit growth came from the ethanol and other operations according to the segment data. Poultry contributed $82 million less than in 2012 and feeds contribution was $215 million less. Ethanol delivered $273 million and others $385 million more than 2012.  The ethanol operations made the bulk of the profit in the April quarter. Up to January, only $74 million was generated from this operation but it jumped considerably in the last quarter.

Cost pressures hit the operations with segment profits lower to December for poultry and feeds as well as in the last quarter compared with the same period in 2012. In the last quarter, things were coming back for the poultry with segment profit of $296 million versus 300 million in 2012 and for the feeds segment, it was still off badly as just $161 million was generated in April quarter compared to $271 million in 2012. For the nine months to January, the poultry had a segment profit of $633 million versus $713 million in 2012 and for the feeds segment it was $749 million compared with $854 million.

The company took on more debt to fund assets acquisitions during the year as net debt climbed $1.38 billion to reach $5.49 billion but equity is up by $1.3 billion.

All 3 Lasco companies approve splits

All three Lasco listed companies approved a 10 for 1 stock split at yesterday’s meetings called solely for that purpose. While the notice suggest that the splits take effect immediately the stocks traded at the old price levels in Thursdays trading. Lascelles Chin, the Chairman of all three companies confirmed to IC Insider that the record date for the Lasco splits is July 9, 2013 and the ex-date is July 5, 2013.

It will mean that Lasco Manufacturing will have 4.087 billion shares, Lasco Distributors will have 3.3664 billion shares in issue and Lasco Finance 1.228 billion shares. The split will mean that the stocks will trade for less than $2 initially as they are all priced under $16 now. Improved results for the first quarter of the 2014 financial year which ends in March should help pushed the prices up when they are released by early August this year.

Insider trades

A director of Lasco Distributors Limited sold 200,000 of the company’s shares on June 14, 2013.

A director of Lasco Manufacturing Limited sold 200,000 of the company’s shares on June 13 & 14, 2013

Blue Power Group Limited advised that two senior managers sold a total of 159,995 shares during the period June 17 – 21, 2013.

Scotia Group Jamaica Limited advised that a senior manager purchased 2,792 SGJ shares on June 24, 2013.

A senior manager of Sagicor Investments Jamaica advised that they sold 20,000 S shares on June 21, 2013.

A related party to Honey Bun (1982) advised that they sold 5,000 Honey Bun shares on June 25, 2013.

Big payoff for Access owners

Access Financial Services declared an interim dividend of 31 cents per share payable on August 15, 2013 to shareholders on record as at August 9, 2013.  The ex-dividend date is August 7, 2013.

This is the first time the company is paying two dividends in one year. The last dividend paid was an interim dividend of $0.65 per share payable on February 27, 2013 to shareholders on record as at February 21, 2013 and related to 2012 profit.

The latest dividend announced will, when paid, bring the dividend payment to 96 cents for the year and will give shareholders a yield of 15.23 percent based on the stock price at the start of the year of $6.30. The Chairman has confirmed that “Access is likely to pay more than one dividend payment for the fiscal year going forward.”

The stock last traded at $8.15, a gain of 29 percent so far. IC Insider is projecting that the stock will rise much further as profit for this year could rise to well over $1 per share.

Unilever stock not supported by profits

When stock prices rise much faster than the growth in profits, we need to take time to take note of what is happening. Investors in such stocks should be fully conversant with the factors at play to ensure that their investment can be properly protected if, and when, the factors change.

Unilever Caribbean stock price is up 13 percent so far this year on top of a 45 percent increase in 2012, 44 percent in 2011 and 35 percent in 2010 after a 16 percent fall in 2009. The company a subsidiary of Unilever PLC, a United Kingdom company, is based in Trinidad and manufactures a range of homecare, personal care and food products for the Caribbean region, including Jamaica, and has been having a reasonable profit performance for a number of years. In fact they have been able to improve sales and margins in a market that has been in recession since 2009. The growth in the stock price is well in excess of the rise in profits for the past four and half years.

Some of the company’s brands include Mistolin, Radiante, Breeze, Vaseline, Lux, Lipton, Becel and Blue Band. The product range also includes dishwashing liquids as well as fabric conditioners.

unileverLogo150x150For the three months to March this year, revenues climbed to $133 .6 million up from $127.5 million for the same period in 2012 while profits were up to $13 million after tax compared to $11.9 million in 2012. The December quarter is the biggest period for earnings with more than a third being generated in the period. For 2012 full year to December the company reported after tax profit of $59.5 million an increase of 2.8 percent over that earned in 2011. Profit for 2011 was up 11 percent over 2010 and 2010 profit was up 26 percent over the previous year. Lower interest rates in Trinidad have helped to push the PE ratio to 21 times earnings at a current stock price of $53.25, up from 14 times in 2011 and 11.5 for 2010.

Unilever reported areas of success reflected in good growth in some of its products but also expressed concerns about rising input cost of some of the products it manufactures as well as competition from cheaper products. From all indications, management seems to have managed to steer the operations well resulting in improved margins, which moved from 61.8 percent in 2012 first quarter to 63.8 percent in 2013, a continuation of the marked improvement seen for 2012 when the margins for the full year came out at 63.7 percent vs the 59.2 percent enjoyed in 2011.

While cost increase seems to be under control in 2013 for the first quarter, that was not the case in 2012 when selling cost rose by $17 million or 17 percent and administrative cost rose 22 percent, well above the growth in revenues. For the quarter, selling cost rose by 4.8 percent and administrative cost rose 2.7 percent while revenues are up 4.75 percent.

The company boast equity capital of $176 million, has no interest bearing debt and a high current asset ratio with liabilities almost covered twice over.

The stock seems poised to rise further as demand exceeds the supply of the stock on the Trinidad market.

Low loan demand squeezes BNS TT

Scotia Bank Trinidad & Tobago hit a new 52 weeks high recently in the price of its stock, so what is happening at the bank to warrant the move in the stock price? Last year the stock was selling at $60.86 in April and on June 24, 2013 it sold at $70.01, a 15 percent rise, yet profits have not been growing all that well. However, the bank raised its dividend from 32 cents per share quarterly last year to 40 cents this year.

Interestingly, the fortune of the Trinidad bank and that of its Jamaican counterpart are tracking similar paths. In Jamaica, profits for Scotia Group have not grown from 2009, almost the same has happened in the Trinidad bank, with no growth since 2011. It looks as if the trend will continue for the Trinidad bank this year as well.

For the six months to April this year, Scotia Trinidad profits just barely budged above the results for the same period in 2012. Net Interest income fell from $462 million in 2012 to $443 million in 2013 but other income rose from $172 million to $224.5 million. The bank was able to keep a lid on expenses which rose from by $24 million to $314 million leaving a profit before tax of $353 6 million some $10 million more than that earned in 2012.

After allowance for taxation of $83 million, net profit rose to $273 million up slightly from $268.7 million in 2012. In the latest April quarter, after tax profits grew by only $1.9 million to reach $128.9 million.

scotiabanklogo150x150The bank seems to have a good grip on loan quality as provisioning bad loans is very low at just $8 million for the six months, an improvement over the $10.5 million in 2012.

Return on Equity | The bank boasts a return on equity of 17.27 percent for the six months period, down from 18.47 percent for the full twelve months for 2012 financial year, which ended in October.

Where is the growth? | For profits to really grow attractively, the bank must grow its loans and assets at a faster pace than it has been doing since 2009. Loans to customers climbed by to $10 billion up from $9.96 billion in October but is flat with April 2012. Deposits did better as these rose to $13.47 billion up from $12.77 billion in April and $12.9 billion in October last year. Loans on the books in October last year contracted compared to the previous year by $700 million or 7 percent. Assets grew by 4 percent in 2012, 5 percent in 2011 and one percent in 2010 down from 11 percent in the previous year. The bank reported of assets of $18.4 billion and equity capital of $3.2 billion.

The bank operates in an economy that is yet to recover from the recession that started in 2008. A lot of the growth a few years prior to 2008 was induced by a major boost in the construction sector, which left newly built units that took awhile to either occupy or sell. This has been a serious drag on the construction sector and by extension, slowed growth in the economy. Without economic growth, bank lending will be slow, which is the main area for growth in income. GDP performance is as follows: 2009, minus 3.3 percent, 2010, 0 percent 2011, minus 1.3 percent, 2012, a positive 1.7 percent. The construction sector fared even worse falling by 7 percent in 2009, 28 percent in 2010 and 8 percent in 2011.

Stock outlook | Against this economic background, it appears that investors cannot expect to see electrifying growth in profits for some time. They also have to be aware that interest rates on savings are at very low levels and any upturn could affect the valuation of stocks on the Trinidad stock market further down the road.

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