With two months out of the 2014/15 fiscal year reported on, the Peter Phillips led Ministry of Finance seems set to again report a wipe out of the fiscal deficit at the end of the fiscal year that ends in March 2015. The budget had suggested a deficit of just over $11 billion. So far there is a $5 billion improvement in the deficit to May with a $2.1 billion improvement in revenues and a $2.9 billion cut in expenditure with capital expenditure accounting for $1.5 billion of the expenditure reduction,but it would be the buoyancy of the revenues that would have been pleasing to the Minister. The country in the past has seen impressive performances in the early months of the financial year only to be face with cuts in expenditure later, as revenues failed to meet the targets set. It will not be clear if the current revenue trend continues, the next few months to come will paint a clearer picture of the likely outturn.
Total revenues which were projected at $52 billion ended at $54 billion and expenditure of $69.6 billion came in at $66.7 billion instead. $752 million less was spent on the wage bill and $676 on programs. Tax revenues brought in $1.87 billion more than projected. The deficit ended at $12.6 billion versus $17.6 billion projected.
Wipe out of Ja fiscal deficit seems likely
Imports drop, exports drop
Devaluation of the local currency since the start of 2013 that should be helping move exports upwards had no visible impact on overall exports of goods in the first quarter of this year compared with 2013, it however, could be impacting imports somewhat as imports have fallen partially as a result. Jamaica imported US$1.412 billion </a>of goods down from US$1.647 billion imported in the January to March quarter last year, representing a reduction of US$235 million or 14.3 percent.
Exports on the other hand came in at US$358 million, down from US$469 million in the 2013 quarter. The decrease in exports was US$111 million or 23.6 percent and is due mainly to a fall in Alumina exports which fell from US$236 million in the comparable 2013 period to US$105 million this year. The merchandise trade deficit for the quarter ended at US$1.054 billion compared to US$1.178 billion in the similar quarter of 2013. The information was released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica today.
Imports| Non-fuel imports during March 2014 quarter declined by US$176 million or 16 percent versus 2013 ending at US$907 million, down from US1.08 billion in the 2013 period. Mineral Fuels, declined by US$59 million or 10.5 percent. Imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods decreased from US$1.11 billion in the 2013 review period to US$863 million in the 2014 review period.
Traditional exports fell by US$37 million to US$168 million in the 2014, down from US$205 million in the 2013 period, a decrease of or 18 percent of this Agricultural commodities fell by US$2.5 million or 35.0 percent and were valued at US$4.6 million. The decline in earnings from “Coffee” exports which fell to US$3 million was the main contributor to this decrease.
Mining and Quarrying was valued at US$135 million, a decrease of 20.1 percent, moving from US$169 million in the 2013 review period.. “Manufacture” recorded a 2 percent decline and was valued at US$28 million compared to the US$28.5 million recorded for the similar January to march 2013 period. Non-traditional domestic exports during January to March 2014 were valued at US$177 million.
J$112.20 to buy the US dollar
The Jamaican dollar selling rate increased to purchase all three major currencies the country trades in. At the end of trading it took on Monday $112.20 or 6 cents more than on Friday to buy a United States dollar even as $36.2 million were bought by dealers and only $32.7 million was sold. It took 81 cents more to buy the Canadian dollar with the selling rate closing at $105.73 and the British Pound went for $191.90 or 72 cents more than on Friday.
Overall, the total inflows of funds was slightly higher than the outflows, with the equivalent of US$43,468,700 purchased, to US$39,107,616 sold compared to the equivalent of US$32,458,785 bought and $31,869,468 sold on the previous trading day.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$36,202,132 compared to US$24,215,389 on Friday as the buying rate for the US dollar eased by 2 cents to $111.52 and sold US$32,694,268 versus US$26,206,729 on Friday with the rate closing up 6 cents at $112.20.
The Canadian dollar buying rate fell 54 cents to $103.80 with dealers buying C$2,680,244 and selling C$2,963,469 as the rate rose by 81 cents to end at $105.73.
The Pound closed at $189.20 for the purchase of £2,231,358, the rate rose 10 cents, while £1,183,752 was sold, the rate climbed by 72 cents to $191.90. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$986,303 while selling accounted for the equivalent of just US$1,596,326.
Highs & Lows| The highest rate for buying the US dollar rose 15 cents to $112.70, the lowest buying rate of $91.02 and the highest selling rate of $116.63 were unchanged at the end of trading but the lowest selling rate fell $18.19 to of $90.81.
The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 10 cents to $105.55, in the meantime the lowest buying rate rose 20 cents at $82.83, the highest selling rate rose by 14 cents to $107 and lowest selling rate climbed 80 cents to $99.80.
The highest buying rate for the British Pound increased $1.20 to $192.50 while the lowest buying rate inched up 21 cents to $152.14. The highest selling rate rose 27 cents to $196.13 and the lowest selling rate was up 5 cents to $183.30.
Columbia, Netherlands or France world cup winner?
The IC Insiders forecast for the quarter finals winners is spot on so far. With only two matches to go the IC Insider’s forecast have been panned out exactly as set out in our report prepared after the preliminary rounds were completed. The closeness of the quarter finals suggest that matches in the semis should be very close once more. Data suggest that the three top teams likely to land the cup are Columbia, Netherlands and France. All three appears to be very close but with Columbia having a very small edge. Brazil is a some what off from the three leading teams.
Ranking| IC Insider ranked the teams in the quarter finals and make its forecast based on the preliminary round performance of the teams. The report that was posted indicated that Brazil the number 4 ranked team should have the better of the number 10 team, Chile with the latter scoring 5 goals and conceding 3 versus Brazil with an 8 to 2 superior record. Holland with 10 goals for and 3 against should have the better of Mexico with a 4 for 1 record, but this is not expected to be a walk over as the Mexicans demonstrated in the preliminary rounds that they don’t intend to quit easily. Columbia’s 9 goals for and 2 against should, on paper place them ahead of Uruguay the number 13 ranked team with 4 and 4 but the latter performance in their last two matches suggests that it could go either way. Costa Rica looks as if they will progress to the next round over Greece who only won one match and have a negative goal difference with only two goals being scored by them. Costa Rica 4 goals and one against was achieved in one of the toughest groups. 
France the IC insider’s number 3 team should be too good for the number 15 team, Nigeria, the same is true for Germany IC Insider ranked number 5 team who should do away with Algeria the number 12 team. Argentina the number 6 team should blow away the Swiss team who are ranked at 11 with 7 goals for and 6 against compared to 6 to 3 for Argentina. Belgium on paper should have the better of the USA having had a superior goal difference and what a appears a more solid defense but the USA team seems to have a better goal hungry approach, if the latter can do better in defense than their last two encounters they look as if they are in with a good chance of winning.
More money for Carreras’ shareholders
More money is heading the way of the Shareholders of Carreras as the company gets ready to make another capital distribution. Carreras on Friday last, informed the Jamaica Stock Exchange that the directors of will consider an interim special capital cash distribution at a meeting to be held on July 3, 2014.
A special capital cash distribution of $1.18 was last paid on January 30, this year.
The company also recently paid an interim dividend of $1.75 per stock unit on June 26, $1.62 per share. On March 13 they paid a dollar per share as well as in August and November last year.
Mayberry ups holdings in Access
Mayberry Investments one of the Major shareholders in Access Financial Services purchased a total of 145,600 shares in the company during the period June 10-24, 2014. Access Financial Services advised the Jamaica Stock Exchange that a related party to purchase the shares. A check on the trades indicates that they were all bought by Mayberry for in house purposes. Mayberry bought another 67,400 units from two of its clients, on Monday June 30 at $13.50. The purchase of the shares comes against the background of legal action being pursued by the two a major shareholders of the company which was brought by Marcus James the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) against the directors connected with Mayberry to restrain them from removing him as CEO.
Sagicor Group| An executive purchased 257,780 shares of Sagicor Group under the company’s Executive Long Term Incentive Scheme on June 23, 2014. Both companies recently reported the trades to the stock exchange.
Why NCB deserves a look now
National Commercial Bank (NCB)shares may not be trading in droves recently with the price tending to trade around $17 since early May but investors may be missing a great buying opportunity with a stock that is seriously undervalued.
In Trinidad the stock closed as low as TT$1.04 recently but has moved up to $1.10 on Friday and seems poised to go higher. The bid in Trinidad on Friday close was $1.10 (J$19.20) to buy 22,933 units with an offer of 26,000 units at $1.14. On Wednesday the stock traded 69,456 units at $1.08 and gained 2 cents in the process. On Friday 21,322 traded in Jamaica at $18.01 each and 1,396,013 on Thursday between $17 and $18.03. Wednesday saw 21,595 units being traded between $17.30 and $19. One important factor is that the stock is not in great supply.
But it’s the order book on the Jamaica Stock exchange that is sending a strong message to buy coupled with is a year when the results should help stimulate the stock price higher. There are only 280,000 shares on offer in the market but the buying interest is not particularly strong. With the pickup in trading in Trinidad, the price in Jamaica could get a lift and with third quarter results to June which are due in the last week in July, that could strengthen investor’s appetite for the stock and give it a badly need push.
IC Insider forecast earnings of $5 per share for the current year, so far NCB reported earnings of $2.38. For the first 6 months of the fiscal year.
Gopro hits $40.47 on Friday
GoPro which listed on the NASDAQ exchange on Thursday, rising from US2$24 at the start of trading opened at US$32.97 today, traded as high as US$40.47 and at a low of US$29.50 in Fridays trading but settled at US$35.47 at the end of the second day of trading.
2014 World Cup Quarter finals forecast
IC Insider has ranked the teams in the quarter finals and make its forecast based on the preliminary round performance of the teams. Brazil the number 4 ranked team should have the better of the number 10 team, Chile with the latter scoring 5 goals and conceding 3 versus Brazil with an 8 to 2 superior record. Holland with 10 goals for and 3 against should have the better of Mexico with a 4 for 1 record, but this is not expected to be a walk over as the Mexicans demonstrated in the preliminary rounds that they don’t intend to quit easily.
Columbia’s 9 goals for and 2 against should, on paper place them ahead of Uruguay the number 13 ranked team with 4 and 4 but the latter performance in their last two matches suggests that it could go either way. Costa Rica looks as if they will progress to the next round over Greece who only won one match and have a negative goal difference with only two goals being scored by them. Costa Rica 4 goals and one against was achieved in one of the toughest groups. France the IC insider’s number 3 team should be too good for the number 15 team, Nigeria, the same is true for Germany IC Insider ranked number 5 team who should do away with Algeria the number 12 team. Argentina the number 6 team should blow away the Swiss team who are ranked at 11 with 7 goals for and 6 against compared to 6 to 3 for Argentina. Belgium on paper should have the better of the USA having had a superior goal difference and what a appears a more solid defense but the USA team seems to have a better goal hungry approach, if the latter can do better in defense than their last two encounters they look as if they are in with a good chance of winning.
World Cup IC TOP 10 teams
At the mid-way point of the 2014 FIFA World Cup finals, the appropriate ranking of the various teams are best gleaned. The FIFA system of ranking teams is clearly flawed, with some of the top teams booted from the competition at a very early stage and others that were low on the list ending up in the 16 to contest the quarter finals. The get a better picture of what is likely to be a better ranking, 
IC Insider decided to use the data up to the mid-way point to rank the teams and arrive at the IC TOP 10. The TOP 10 rankings are listed in the accompanying table and shows the FIFA June ranking for comparison purposes. The winner for this year’s World Cup seems set to come from within the top 6 but Columbia appears the weakest of the lot but could well go far.
FIFA number 1 team Spain won just one match after they were eliminated from this year’s World Cup finals, the number 10 team, England never even won a match. The number 9 ranked team, Italy, managed just one win and bowed out of the tournament at the end of the preliminary round. The number 4th ranked team Portugal is also out of the top 16. The 28th team Costa Rica won all their matches against FIFA’s 7th, 9th and 10th ranked teams. The team that was ranked at 44, Nigeria, is in the top 16. Korea Republic was ranked at 57 did better than many ranked above them and so is the case with Iran that was ranked at 43, Ghana was ranked at 37 and is out of the top 16 but ended up at 23 based on IC Insider’s ranking.