Negative Inflation for rest of 2014?

Price fallPrices increased for October rose by a mere 0.1 percent over September this year, and is in line with the increase in February and June but above a negative 0.3 percent in April. The rate for the rest of the year could be negative based on developments locally and overseas.
The inflation rate, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reveals was mainly due to a 0.2 percent increase in the index for the category of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and 0.3 per cent increase in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels. This increase in the index for the latter division was mainly as a result of higher water and sewerage charges in October 2014 Statin stated. A 0.8 percent fall of prices in transportation, moderated the effect of the increases, in the other areas. Statin said that the ‘Transport’ division’s index fell as a result of the decline in the cost of airfares, as well as the price of fuel.

Lower airfares helped to keep October inflation low

Lower airfares helped to keep October inflation low

The October number brings the yearly inflation to 7.2 percent to date. The shortage of many locally grown food items, pushed up prices and inflation in the food category for the September by 2.1 percent, the worse monthly increase by far for the year. Supplies are coming back to normal and will moderate prices in this category, so there should be lowering of inflation here. The price of oil have fallen on the world market down to the mid US$70 range and local gas prices at the pumps, having declined sharply. The fall in world oil prices will be passed through to consumers in lower fuel rate by JPS. With all of these developments rest of the year should see negative inflation that may pull the full year rate well below 7%. The inflation rate for 2012 was 8.0 percent and in 2013, 9.5 percent.

Mayberry profit up & down but buy

Brokerage house, Mayberry Investments has a long history of profit up one year and down the next, which provides alert investors with good buying opportunities.
Mayberry_banner600X250Admittedly, this is not peculiar to Mayberry alone, but that is no solace to many of the investors who bought the stock years ago, when performance and the stock price were much better than now. A buying opportunity may now be presenting itself once more, as the stock is undervalued around the $1.50 level.
While profit is up for the nine months to September this year, profit dropped 59 percent before tax, for the September quarter, compared to that of 2013, but improved sharply from a loss of $25 million for the nine months ending September last year, to a profit of $239 million this year. Last year, Mayberry suffered a loss of $338 million relating to the government of Jamaica debt exchange program. During the September quarter this year, the company enjoyed a tax credit of $14 million moving profit after tax to $54 million compared to $80 million in 2013. For the nine months, to September this year, profit after tax, amounted to $278 million versus $61 million last year.
Net interest income, declined for 2014, compared with both periods last year, but major improved trading and investment gains over the similar period last year and recovery of bad loans, helped to improve total net income. There was slower exchange rate trading gains, in the September quarter, but for the nine months, it was slightly lower than for 2013. Administrative expenses climbed 29 percent, in the quarter and 26 percent for the nine months, to September, slower than growth in income.
At the end of 2013, Mayberry had $3 billion invested in equity but for 2014 to date there is a decline in the value that negatively affected reserves, by approximately $260 million. Funds tied up in this area of investment, is one factor for the underperformance of the company, as the local stock market has not been performing well. MIL tab 9-14All of that could change going forward as the local economy continues to improve and interest rates fall, leading to increased profits for listed companies and more demand for stocks, thus pushing prices upwards. Mayberry remains a good way to profit from any upsurge that the Jamaican stock market will enjoy going forward, with the high level of stocks held plus increased brokerage fees from executing trades for investors. At $1.50 for the stock currently and likely earnings of around 30 cents for 2014, the stock present an opportunity for good return going forward.
Stockholders’ equity stands at $3.6 billion, which translates to a book value of $3.04 per share with total assets of $23 billion up from $21.3 million at the end of September last year.

JMMB makes strong recovery in Q2

JMMBProfit for September quarter at Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) made a spirited recovery from the fall of 27 percent, in the June quarter to a more moderate 7 percent decline to reach $651 million from $697 million in September 2013. For the year to date, the decline is down to 17 percent to $1.2 billion.
Two main issues led to this performance, the main income generator, Interest income grew 20 percent in the quarter and 18 percent year to date but net interest income grew much more slowly at 14 percent and 12 percent respectively. Other revenues rose 37 percent in the September quarter and 33 percent for the six months but expenses jumped 45 percent in the quarter and 49 percent for the six months ending September this year, to $3.5 million. JMMB made some progress in cutting cost in the quarter but much more will be needed in the months ahead if the pace of increased cost is to be kept in line with or below the growth rate of income. “Expenses associated with the expansion of the Group through the acquisition of IBL accounted for $715 million (63 percent) of this increase and the remaining $421 (37 percent) is explained by costs associated with integration, growth in subsidiaries in the regional markets, increase in asset tax and normal inflationary increases,” Management states.
JMMB sum 9-14The banking segment had improved the results from $125 million in 2013 to $269 million in 2014, partially due to the acquisition of the Intercommercial Bank in October 2013, while financial and related services moved from $1.69 billion down to $1.25 billion.
Total assets grew from $172 billion in September last year to $224 billion in September, this year. The growth in asset is 10 percent or annualised at 20 percent since the fiscal year end in March. Equity stood at $20 billion at the end of September. The growth in assets is pretty strong and should result in strong increase in profits going forward.
JMMB stock last traded on the Jamaica Stock Exchange at $7 and on the Trinidad Stock Exchange at TT 45 cents.

Profit up at General Accident but just

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GeneralAccident_logo150x150Profit for General Accident rose only 8 percent, for the nine months ending September this year, to $241 million or 23 cents per share.
For the similar period last year, the company reported a net profit of $223 million, putting them on target to exceed 30 cents per share for the full year to December. Profit for the September quarter amounted to $54 million and is up 20 percent over the 2013 results. Premium income grew 91 percent in the quarter and 19 percent for the year to date period, but commission income was up 15 percent in the quarter, and 38 percent for the nine months to September. Underwriting profit climbed 57 percent in the quarter and 39 percent for the year to date. Investment income declined sharply due to slower exchange rate movement in 2014, versus 2013. Administrative expenses climbed 13 percent in the quarter and 20 percent for the nine months to September. The sharp increase in premium income in the September quarter should lead to higher income in the December quarter and raise earnings beyond the level enjoyed in the period to date.
Genac 9-14“The company ended the quarter with a book value of $1.62 billion and generated a return on average equity for shareholders for the nine months period of 21 percent,” management stated in a release with the results. Equity at end of September last year was $1.35 billion.
Insurance reserves at the end of the period, stood at $2.1 billion, and is covered by cash and investments, of just over $2 billion.
With the stock trading at $1.53, on the junior market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange it is severely undervalued and has lots room to run accordingly, remains IC Insider BUY RATED.

Sagicor Group bounced head in Q3

SagicorBuilding280x150Banking profit fell to a loss of $16 million this year so far, from a profit of $271.8 million for the nine-month period to September last year, helping to pressure Sagicor Group’s profit for the third quarter and year to date.
The financial group saw a sharp fall in profit in the quarter, from $1.56 billion to $1.1 billion. “Post-acquisition losses relating to the RBC Jamaica acquisition that was completed effective June 2014 amounted to $231 million, including rebranding and restructuring costs” the Sagicor management said in a release with the result.
The Group produced net profits of $3.84 billion, with $3.79 billion available to stockholders, for the nine months to September. This outcome was better than last year by a mere 2.5 percent. Earnings per stock unit came out at $0.99. Profit for third quarter amounted to $1.08 billion compared with $1.52 billion for 2013 after minority interest. The current period results and the nine months profits were impacted by costs for rebranding and rationalizing operations, following the RBC Jamaica acquisition, higher taxes and lower unrealised FX gains in 2014 compared to 2013. The 2013 results included the negative impact of the Government of Jamaica NDX debt swap.
Segments| The group’s performance for the nine months disguises what has taken place in the segments. Individual insurance generated 20.5 percent more profit than it did in 2013, to reach $1.3 billion, employees’ benefit jumped 26.3 percent to $2.3 billion and investment banking climbed 83 percent to $569 million, this segment would have had the negative impact of the NDX in 2013. The category, All Other fell sharply, from $272 million to $79 million.
Revenues and Expenses| Revenue grew 9.6 percent above prior year, to hit $34.2 billion. The 2013 revenue included the realised capital losses as a result of the debt exchange. “2014 Net Premium Income, in aggregate, was slightly below that for 2013. Net Investment income was higher than in the prior year, reflecting business growth and units’ appreciation in the Segregated Funds. The 2013 Net investment Income number also includes capital losses from the NDX and PDX,” the manager’s statement said.
Group administration expenses of $7.52 billion were 35 percent more than in 2013. The significant increase includes post acquisition expenses for the RBC portfolio and one-time costs for re-branding the RBC portfolio and rationalization of operations. The Banking Group also had operating costs associated with the new flagship Hope Road branch which was opened in December 2013,” management explained in their report to shareholders.
The increased administration cost which was $3.4 billion in the third quarter was $1.6 billion more than the amount incurred in 2013 due to the added ongoing cost associated with running the RBC banking operation. The results for the December quarter should see a sharp reduction in this category of expense and therefore help improve the profit to what would normally be expected.
Assets| With the acquisition of RBC Jamaica operations the total group assets now sits at $262 billion up from $189 billion at September 2013 and equity stands at $42 billion.

50% dividend hike at Pan-Jamaican

PanJam bldgPan-Jamaican Investment declared a dividend of 75 cent per stock unit payable in December and is 50 percent higher than the 50 cents per share, paid at the same time in 2013.
The fourth interim dividend for 2014 is payable on December 22, to stockholders on record at November 28. The ex-dividend date is November 26. Previously, the company hiked the interim dividend paid on September 26 to 70 cents per stock unit. Interim dividends of 60 cents per share were paid on June 20 and on March 31, this year. The payments for the year translate to a yield of just over 5 percent.

Gleaner awaiting economic up turn

Gleaner280x150Profit at Gleaner Company, for the three months to September is up strongly, but that’s coming from a low level for 2013. Most of the improved figures came from a big upswing in finance income and not from the main activity of media.
Profit after tax rose 271 percent, to $16 million, up from just $4 million in 2013, and for the six months, growth was up 301 percent to reach $58.6 million from $14.6 million, but that is just 5 cents per share. Profit margins improved in 2014 over 2013 rising only 4 percent for the nine months and 11 percent in the quarter, but administration and other cost rose 11 percent in the quarter and a lesser 5 percent in the year to date period.
The other good news is the vast improvement in the results of the subsidiaries, for the year so far, having produced a profit of $10.5 million in the September quarter from a loss of $19 million last year and a reduced loss of $2 million for the year to September compared with a loss of $31 million in 2013.
Glnr table 9-14Sales revenue remains flat, at just over $813 million for the 2014 and 2013 quarters and up a mere 2 percent for the nine months to September, at $2.43 billion. The economic conditions the country is in, coupled with stringent fiscal policies being pursued by the government, is not the environment that the media house relishes. The situation has been made worse by Claro mobile exiting the system, a few years ago. The acquisition of Flow by Cable & Wireless could well put more pressure on revenues down the road, depending on how the acquisition is handled. In the end, the acquisition will mean less advertising spend, nationally by the telecom sector if the acquisition goes through. Another negative, is that newspapers are not the in thing anymore, with newer readers preferring the internet, but they are not yet prepared to buy news on line the same way that news was sold in the past. Although, the Gleaner owns a radio station its profitability is at best small and can’t deliver much to the bottom line.
The company’s stock price is low compared to its historical norm, but compared with others in the market, it can be considered overpriced at a PE that is around 10 times current year’s earnings, with no sign of a major turnaround in its operations soon.

Carreras profit up margin squeezed

Carreras280x150Profit at Carreras for the three months to September, is up 26 percent to $614 million, from $485 million in 2013, for the six months growth was less robust, at 20 percent to reach $1.17 billion from $9,71 million.
Revenues recovered considerable grounds, from the lost sales in 2013, from the front loading by merchants of inventories ahead of a pending price increase of cigarettes that the company implemented in March 2013. For the quarter, sales revenues rose 18.5 percent over that of 2013 and 19.3 percent for the six months to September. During last year September quarter, revenues fell 16 percent, so there is still a fall out, but that is usually the case whenever there is sizeable price increase, is effected.
Profit margins got squeezed, rising only 13 percent for the six months and 10 percent in the quarter, no doubt, due to the devaluation of the local dollar and the lack of a price increase so far. Carreras was able to hold cost well below the increased sales revenues for the quarter and year to date. The company is on track to earn somewhere in the region of $6 per share, for the current year and that will help move the price up. The stock remains IC Insider BUY RATED.
Cr 9-14 sumCarreras will pay a special capital cash distribution, on December 18, following an interim dividend of $1.20 per stock unit, to be paid on December 11, 2014. The payments will bring to total distribution for 2014 to $8.09.
The stock closed trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, at $37 on Friday, putting the PE ratio, at 6 times the current fiscal year earnings.

Dolphin Cove Profit up 14%

Dolphin Cove’s profit for the September quarter, rose 14 percent to $109 million and for the nine months to September, its up a strong 25 percent to $397 million. Cost generally rose slightly faster than revenues, but that did not impair the results by much.
DCL fn -9-14 dataDirect cost 16 percent for the quarter and 18 percent year to date, administrative and other costs were up 18 percent for quarter, but was in line with revenues, at 15 percent for the nine months, to September. Margins were held for the quarter and rose for the nine months period. Revenues climbed 16 percent for the quarter, and 15 percent year to date. At the end of the financial year to December, earnings should be just over $1.20, for this major tourist attraction.
Attendant with the growth in profit, the company increase the amount paid out in dividend in 2014 over 2013.

Rich year for Carreras’ shareholders

Carreras_tobacco280x150Carreras declared yet another dividend payable to shareholder in December, with the latest being $1 per stock unit to be paid out of proceeds received from the liquidation of a subsidiary. The payment is pending the granting of a transfer tax exemption pursuant to the Transfer Tax Act.
The interim special capital cash distribution will be paid on December 18, to stockholders on record as at December 1, 2014. The ex-dividend date is November 27. The distribution follows the interim dividend of $1.20 per stock unit due for payment on December 11, 2014, to stockholders on record at November 20. The payment will bring to total for 2014 to $8.09 for a return of 22 percent for the year based on the stock price of $36.75 at the end of 2013. The stock closed at $37 on Friday on the Jamaica Stock Exchange.
In September, Carreras paid an interim dividend of $1.20 per stock unit, the company also paid an interim dividend of $1.75 per stock unit on June 26. On March 13 they paid $1.62 per share.
A special capital cash distribution of $1.34 per stock unit was paid on July 31 and a special capital cash distribution of $1.18 was last paid on January 30, this year.
Profit up|Carreras just announced results for the six months to September, with an 18.5 percent increase in revenues for the quarter, over that of 2013 and 19.3 percent for the six months, to September.
Profit after tax, rose 28 percent in the quarter, to reach $614 million, up from $485 million in 2013, and for the six months, growth was less robust, at 12 percent, to reach $1.22 billion from $970 million.
Profit margins got squeezed, rising only 13 percent for the six months and 9 percent in the quarter, no doubt due to the devaluation of the local dollar and the lack of a price increase so far. Revenues are recovering from the 2013 price increase, and from the front loading by merchant of inventories ahead of the increase. The company is on track to earn somewhere in the region of $6 per share for the current year, that will help move the price up. The stock remains IC Insider BUY RATED.

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