The performance of the Jamaica Stock Exchange in the near term is expected to be influenced by the pile of results dumped on the market in the past week, with varying degrees of success. Based on results for the December quarter, Caribbean Producers’ earnings were adjusted down to $1.15 per share, resulting in the stock falling out of the TOP10, with Guardian Holdings replacing it and ISP Finance entering the Junior Market listing in replacing Elite Diagnostic following the release of full year earnings, with ICInsider.com projected earnings per share of $4 for ISP for 2024.
For a second consecutive week, the Junior Market ended with minimal price changes, ranging from 4 percent and less and none with a negative price movement, while the Main Market had only two stocks with negative price changes, with Pulse Investments, the highest with a fall of 7 percent to $1.85 and 138 Student Living slipping 3 percent, while Margaritaville popped 18 percent to close at the week at $17.48, Caribbean Producers rose 6 percent to $9.64 following the release of nine months results that saw profit for the second quarter rising 17.6 percent to US$2 million but with the six months results, down marginally to US$3.28 million versus $3.35 million in 2022. Key Insurance rose 5 percent to $2.31 and Palace Amusement gained 4 percent to close at $1.25 following news of a sold-out opening night for the Marley movie that nearly doubled that of the highly successful Black Panther.
For the full list of weekly percentage changes for the ICTOP10 stocks, check the attached charts that now carry a column of the weekly percentage price movements.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.4, well below the market average of 13.7 and the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 7.3 just over half of the market, with an average of 13.4.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 279 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 177 percent over the same period.
In the Main Market ICTOP 10, a total of 14 of the most highly valued stocks representing 29 percent of the Main Market are priced at a PE of 15 to 110, with an average of 30 and 24 excluding the highest PE ratios, and a PE of 25 for the top half and 17 excluding the stocks with overweight values.
In the Junior Market IC TOP10 are 13 stocks, or 27 percent of the market, with PEs ranging from 15 to 45, averaging 21, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 18, possibly the lowest fair value for stocks, currently.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns on or around May 2024 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
The Bank of Jamaica NIR report, states that the reserves represent 23.6 weeks of Estimated Gross Official Reserves in weeks of Goods & Services Imports, down from 25.2 weeks in December 2022.
As was the case for the previous week the markets closed with no addition to the ICInsider.com TOP 10 stocks.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) raised interest rates in 2021 with the overnight rate landing at 7 percent in November 2022 and has remained there since, with BOJ keeping a tight lid on market rates by the use of Certificate of Deposits with rates mostly around 10 percent on average, to tame inflation that peaked close to 12 percent in early 2023.
Part of the decline in the Junior Market in 2023 is due to an overall level of over-exuberance by investors in 2022, pushing the prices of a limited number of Junior Market stocks to unrealistic levels, with sharp correction for some of these in 2023 and helping to drag the market. The situation in the Main Market was somewhat different with a lack of interest from institutional investors until the final quarter of the year which is reflected in a continuous slide in the Main Market Index throughout the year until the end of September, indeed from a two-year high of 461,783 points on the All Jamaica Composite Index in May 2022 until it bottomed at the end of September 2023 at 344,153 points and put on almost 23,000 points to the end of the year. While the Main Market declined for two consecutive years, the Junior Market was experiencing its first yearly decline since 2020.
Barring increased interest rates, the Jamaican economy should grow just around two percent in 20224 and that ought to be sufficient to help generate increased demand for goods and services and assist many listed companies to increase profits from existing operations. Expanding companies will see above average performances.
The supply of 
Despite the price move since last year, the stock is attractively priced at a PE of 6 based on this year’s projected earnings of $7.50 and 8.30 based on reported the 2023 earnings of $5.54 per share. The valuation compares with an average of 13.7 for the Main Market based on projected 2023 earnings. At an average market PE, the stock would get to $76 based on earnings for 2023 and more, once investors start pricing in 2024 earnings into the price.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.3, well below the market average of 13.7 and the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 7.4, just over half of the market, with an average of 13.5
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 294 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 181 percent over the same time frame.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 311 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 185 percent over the same time frame.
some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
