Provisional data for the September 2013 quarter shows that there was a significant improvement in the current account deficit of Jamaica’s Balance of Payments. The outturn in the quarter reflected improvements on all sub-accounts. However, net private and official capital inflows were insufficient to finance the deficits on the current and capital accounts for the September 2013 quarter, which was funded by Bank of Jamaica from the net international reserves.

The central bank, in a release on the current account, stated that it “recorded a deficit of US$409 million for the period July to September 2013, an improvement of US$202 million over the corresponding period in 2012”. This outturn, the release stated, “reflected improvements on all sub-accounts but was primarily evident in a decline of US$146 million in the deficit on the merchandise trade sub-account, associated with a contraction of US$197 million in imports, there was a reduction of US$51.5 million in exports. The decline in imports mainly reflected reductions of US$132 million and US$73 million in expenditure on chemicals and mineral fuels, respectively. For exports, the fall was mainly due to lower earnings from chemicals, in particular, ethanol”.

For the quarter, there was a decline of US$8 million in the deficit on the income sub-account stemming mainly from a decrease of US$20 million in investment income outflows. The decline in investment income outflows was largely related to lower remittances of direct investment companies. With regard to the services sub-account, there was an increase of US$5 million in the surplus due principally to a decline in transportation charges as a result of the lower imports. The surplus on the current transfers sub-account increased by US$44 million reflecting growth of 6.2 per cent in gross remittance inflows.

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For May 2013, net remittances were US$162.0 million, an increase of US$19.6 million or 13.7 per cent relative to the corresponding period of 2012. This resulted from an increase in gross remittance inflows and a contraction in outflows as the foreign exchange market settled after the signing of the agreement with the IMF agreement by the government.

Gross remittance inflows for the month were US$181.5 million, an increase of US$14.9 million or 8.9 per cent relative to the corresponding month of the previous year and the highest monthly inflow for 2013. The inflows are the highest since 2009 when inflows fell to US$142 million and last year’s $166.7 million.  The rise in total remittance inflows emanated from increases of US$8.0 million and US$6.9 million in both the Remittance Companies and Other Remittances subcategories, respectively.

Total remittance outflows for the review month decreased by US$4.7 million to US$19.6 million. The combined impact of inflows and outflows resulted in net remittance flows increasing for May 2013.

Historical data show a link with exchange market instability and remittance flows. In 2009, other remittances started to fall from October 2008 when they fell US$10 million to US$28 million; in November it fell further to US$18.3 million; moved up to $27.1 in December while in January it fell to US$25.6 million; US$19 million in February and US$19.4 million in March. The average monthly inflows for the first quarter of 2008 was $40 million. The decline seems to coincide with the sharp fall in the value of the local dollar and scarcity of US dollars in the economy as investors, who received foreign currency, would most likely have held onto them than surrender them into the system. The same situation appears to have occurred since 2012 into the early months of this year.

January to May 2013 | Net remittances for January to May 2013 were US$753.5 million, representing a growth of US$15.6 million or 2.1 per cent relative to 2012. The out-turn for the review period reflected an increase in gross inflows, helped by a reduction in outflows. For the period, total inflows were US$854.2 million, representing a minor increase of US$2.6 million.

Remittance inflows for the year to-date were above the corresponding pre-crisis (2008) out-turn. However, the growth rate in remittance inflows has seen a deceleration since 2010, most likely due to Jamaicans speculating against the local currency as the country went through a prolonged period without an IMF agreement and a declining net international reserves and overvaluation of the Jamaican dollar as a result of years of local inflation exceeding by far that of our major trading partners.

The increase in total remittance inflows reflected a US$13.5 million or 10.8 per cent improvement in inflows through Other Remittances, together with a US$10.9 million or 1.5 per cent reduction in flows from Remittance Companies sub-category. For the review period, the positive growth in net remittances inflows was also due to a contraction of US$13.0 million in outflows.

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