Jamaica extended its historic crime reduction of the last three years into 2026, with murders down by a massive 64.7 percent in the first 1O days compared to the same period the previous year, on top of the 41 percent decline in 2025.
The country recorded 12 murders through January 10 versus 34 in the corresponding 2025 period, a dramatic continuation of the 2025 decline that produced 673 murders, the lowest in nearly three decades.
The data translates to just 1.2 murders per day, but 1.14 per day in the past week, and could result in murders ending up under 400 in the current year. The most probable outcome is 350-420 murders for 2026, translating to a homicide rate of 12.5-15 per 100,000, nearly 75 percent below 2023 levels and approaching regional averages. There are no murders in eleven police divisions in 2026, down from 11 last year.
Looking forward, the sustained downward trajectory carries positive implications for economic growth, tourism development, and foreign investment.