Murders in Jamaica have plunged sharply in recent months, data from the Jamaica Constable force shows, putting the rate at an annualized level of under 1,000 per annum, levels the trend in 2024 suggest is possible for 2025 as increased employment and low unemployment is helping in a major way in aiding the reduction as indicated by historical data.
If the above is achieved, it would put murders in line to match the 976 cases in 2003 and the lowest in more than two decades. If the security forces make further inroads the social malady, the numbers next year could fall well below the 2003 outcome.
For the period to November 9, this year murders dropped a significant 20.5 percent compared to the similar period in 2023. The latest date shows continuing acceleration in the fall from 14.5 percent up to July 6. Earlier in the year the number of murders per day was over three and is now running around 2.67 percent, still high but moving in the right direction.
The economy is cooperating with crime reduction, by delivering low unemployment and less potential recruits for criminal activities. Historical data shows a strong relationship between increased unemployment and increased murders starting in late 1990s and the reverse is now taking place with low unemployment.
Unemployment rose sharply between in 1977 as the economy contracted significantly, accompanied by capital and human flight. The unemployment rate of just over 11.2 percent in 1975 jumped to 23.8 percent in 1977 and to 27.7 percent in 1979 and remained around 26 percent to 1989, with a few years of modest fall. From 1990 the unemployment numbers started to moderate as can be seen from the chart, but increased murders had just started to climb in 1990 a 15 year lag from the sharp jump in unemployment that provided a greater pool of recruits for criminal activities for several years.
Except for 1980, when murders climbed to 889 amidst a bitter general election, murders were kept below 500 per year until 1990 when it hit 542 and gradually climbed to a high of 1,683 in 2009 with 2005 not far behind with 1,674 and 2017 with 1,647 as employment worsened.