Profit for Stationery and Office Supplies fell well below expectations for 2018, resulting in a downward revision to the 2019 estimate to 75 cents per share that is not good enough to keep it in the TOP 10.
tTech rose to $6.20 to exit the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks. Caribbean Cream and Lasco Manufacturing moved into the list. There are no changes to the main market listing this past week. IC insider .com upgraded Caribbean Cement earnings to $6 per share helped by cost reduction and discontinuation of importing cement that is more costly than the local product.
The three leading Junior Market stocks are Paramount, with potential gains of 281 percent General Accident, with potential gains of 256 percent and Caribbean Producers 256 percent.
The three leading main market stocks are, Victoria Mutual investments with 162 percent likely gain, Radio Jamaica 148 percent and Sterling Investments with 147 percent and Sagicor Group with likely gain of 125 percent. Strong gains in the price of Carib Cement pushed it down to number 4 from 2 last week following strong increased profit for 2018.
The main market closed the week with the overall PE at 13.7 and the Junior Market at 10.6. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks average 6.4 and the main market PE is now 8.5.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 40 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks and main market stocks trade at a discount of 38 percent to the overall market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.
Market Watch on Scotia
The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange moved within less than 5,000 points of the record close in November last year as investors pushed the prices of some stocks higher during the past week.
Based on the date the first quarter results for Scotia Group was released in 2018, the 2019 results should be released on Thursday but so far the company has not posted the date of dividend consideration that is normally the date of announcing the results. Caribbean Cement closed at $55 and should move higher with limited supply on offer and an analysis of the audited 2018n results suggesting that cost should decline and revenues rise in the current year. IC Insider.com raised earnings to $6 for the year with the expensive $1 billion cement import last year not recurring this year and the benefit of a full year of removal of lease cost with added saving this year from the $2 billion annual savings from resulting from owning the kilns rather than leasing. Keep on watching this one for a break out in price.
Radio Jamaica pulled back to $1 late last week but there is buying at those levels and above.
The Junior Market is consolidating with a slight negative bias, even as this market seems far more undervalued than the main market, the release of quarterly profit results is not helping this market currently as investors wait to see what 2019 results will look like.
Last week, a number of results were released but they showed that investors may have pushed prices to their limit already. Jamaica Stock Exchange report big increase in profit for 2018 of $413 million versus $221 million in 2017 with earnings per share of 59 cents and thus pushing the PE ratio to a rich 30. Berger Paints profits were flat but the company had a blowout final quarter with revenues jumping 155 percent from the poor 2017 quarter and profits of $130 million versus just $30 million in 2017. Grace Kennedy reported improved results with earnings per share of $5, helped
Fontana’s and Wisynco continues to trade around their current prices just below $4 and $12 respectively and seem poised to continue to move side wards for a while.
Elite Diagnostic moved up to $3.20 last week with good demand at that level continues to trade around $3.10 with a gap developing between the bids at $3.10 and sellers at $3.40. Will buyers move higher or will sellers come down where the majority of buyers are? Watch to see how this develops.
Buying for General Accident continues to trade around $4.50 level with no clear signs when it will the break out to a higher price level.
Lasco Financial remains stuck around $4.60 price level with some selling taking place at $4.60, but buying is not strong enough to move the price in the short term. Medical Disposables bounced last week but the price may bounce around for some time in the medium term.
Cement & RJR on watch alert
The action on the Jamaica Stock Exchange is focused on the main market currently as it continues to exhibit clear bullish signs, that propelled by a recent wedge formation and is also being steered upwards by a long term upward sloping support line, that goes
back to early 2016.
The main market is just 9,625.14 points away from the peak
reached of 433,307.22 points reached on 29-Nov-last on the All Jamaica Index. The Junior Market is consolidating with
a slight negative bias, even as this market seems far more undervalued than the main market.
This week investors will see a series of releases with some expected to move the prices of some of the companies. The stocks in this
category to watch keenly are Jamaica Stock Exchange that should report a doubling in profit for the 2018. Berger Paints, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Producers, Mayberry Investments that should show the full impact of the new accounting standard that will book all investments gains or losses directly to regular profit and loss, Sagicor Group, PanJam Investment. Release of full year’s results for Caribbean Cement last week, provided fuel that drove the price up to $51.50. Supply of the stock is low, with profit prospects for 2019 looking good.
Last weeks’ release of Fontana’s half year results, were mixed, with slightly higher profit for the six months but lower profit for the December quarter, the latter from modest sales increase, halted the advance of the price of the stock. The stock is likely to trade around the $4 level for a while. Investors ought to be focusing on the expansion plans and what that will do to profit in fiscal 2020. Wisynco continues to trade around the $12 mark but could break out at any time demand existing to buy just below $12 and supply drastically reduced compared to the period before the company released six months results.
Demand remains high for Buy Rated Radio Jamaica but supply has virtually dried up and so the stage may be set for higher prices ahead. The price moved up to $1.40 during last week but pulled back afterwards to trade back at $1 on Friday before heading back to close at $1.25.
Elite Diagnostic continues to trade around $3.10 with a gap developing between the bids at $3.10 and sellers at $3.40. Will buyers move higher or will sellers come down where the majority of buyers are? Watch to see how this develops.
Buying for General Accident continues between $4 and $4.25, when will the break out takes place is unknown, but the valuation suggest that it could be sooner than later as the company is expected to build on the 2018 results of 29 cents per share in 2019.
The price of Lasco Financial rose during the past week but the price could inch higher this week but investors may not be ready push it much higher in the short term
Medical Disposables bid at the close on Friday was $5.50 with offer at $6.49, a wide gap that will close at some time. The company’s expansion into consumer products offers scope for a faster growth in profit going forward and that swill help the stock in the latter half of 2018. The latest results show, it is going take sometime for the expected growth to really take hold.