The prices of 12 securities rose, 11 declined and 5 traded unchanged, resulting from 28 securities changing hands on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Monday, compared to 20 trading on Friday.
At the close of trading, the market Index declined by 30.80 points to close at 3,036.12, with 1,119,859 units valued at $4,503,207 changing hands, compared to 806,470 units valued at $3,015,197 on Friday.
IC bid-offer Indicator|At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 8 stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and none with a lower offer.
Trading closed with an average of 39,995 units for an average of $160,829 in contrast to 40,324 units for an average of $150,760 on Friday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 241,183 units valued at $954,077 and previously 268,008 units valued at $1,059,844. June closed with an average of 139,543 units, valued at $671,002 for each security traded.
At the close of trading, Blue Power closed at $40, with 1,345 shares changing hands, CAC 2000 concluded trading with a loss of 1 cent at $9, with 7,782 units, Cargo Handlers finished with a loss of 15 cents at $9.50, with 830 shares changing hands, Caribbean Cream settled with a loss of 50 cents at $5.75, trading 3,100 shares, Caribbean Flavours ended trading 7 cents higher at $11.67, with just 368 shares changing hands, Caribbean Producers traded 27,442 stock units and rose 5 cents to $5.35. Consolidated Bakeries closed 1 cent higher at $2.01, with 3,000 units, C2W Music ended 10 cents higher at 52 weeks’ closing high of $1.65, with 33,143 shares, Derrimon Trading closed with a loss of 3 cents at $20, with 18,000 shares, Elite Diagnostic fell 4 cents to end at $2.96, with 7,000 stock units. Everything Fresh gained 8 cents and closed at $2.10 after 83,788 units changed hands, Express Catering ended trading with a loss of 20 cents at $7.30, in exchanging 17,324 shares, FosRich Group traded 14 cents higher at $2.71, with 387,471 shares, General Accident finished trading 10,447 shares and rose 5 cents to $3.05, GWest Corporation closed 5 cents higher at $2.40, with 15,000 stock units. Honey Bun traded 19,729 units to end at $5, Jamaican Teas settled 15 cents higher at $5.30, with 293 shares, Jetcon Corporation traded 6,163 stock units and ended at $4.10, Key Insurance traded 1 cent higher at $3.02, with 300 units. Knutsford Express closed at $11.50, after 1,800 shares traded, Lasco Distributors ended 9 cents higher at $4, with 244,516 shares, Lasco Financial concluded trading with a loss of 18 cents at $5.03, exchanging 60,982 stock units, Lasco Manufacturing lost 30 cents to end at $3.90, with 19,000 units. Main Event settled with a loss of 18 cents at $6.82, after trading 19,897 shares, Medical Disposables ended trading 125,156 shares with a loss of 1 cent to close $4.99, Stationery and Office Supplies closed 5 cents higher at $8.10, with 4,385 stock units and Sweet River closed with a loss of 10 cents at $3.70, with 198 units. In the junior market preference segment, Derrimon Trading concluded trading at $2.50 with 1,400 units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
Stocks to Watch this week
There are clear signs that the usual summer rally has started on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, with the main market hitting new highs on all five trading days during the past week, and ending at record closing highs on all, except on Friday.
The main market entered record territory, minutes after opening on Friday with the All Jamaican Composite Index climbing 1,082.40 points to an intraday record of 340,315.50 and the JSE Index rising 986.19 points to a record 310,065.85. The market is being steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index for the main market and the Junior Market is being steered by an upward rising long term support line.
The market saw many developments that confirm that a bull market is in place. Mayberry Jamaican Equities initial public offer, opened and closed on Monday, having been oversubscribed and Indies Pharma public offer opened on Thursday and closed on Friday but Stanley Motta remains opened after more than a week since the offer opened.
Elsewhere in the secondary market, Jamaica Broilers traded briefly at a record high of $33, others trading at 52 weeks’ high in the main market are Kingston Wharves trading at $52.03, PanJam Investment at $58.99 and Pulse Investments trading up to $3.50, but 138 Student Living, having fallen to a 52 weeks’ low of $4.40 the previous week fell even lower in this past week to $3.85,
Former TOP 10 Junior Market listing, Derrimon Trading ordinary share, hit at an all-time high of $23 during the week. Current TOP 10 listing, CAC2000 hit a new record high of $10 as well as C2W Music climbed to $1.60, while recently listed Everything Fresh traded at an all-time low of $1.95 since listing in June. US dollar market listings, Margaritaville and Proven Investments both traded at a 52 weeks’ lows during the week as investors seem to lose interest in the US dollar listed shares.
The main market is exhibiting strong bullish signals while the Junior Market seems more subdued apparently waiting on the release of results.
Against this back drop there could be some interesting developments in in the market in the coming days. Based on demand and supply of stocks and trading activities last week the stocks worth watching this week include, Caribbean Cream that jumped sharply on Friday after the company reported improve first quarter results, NCB Financial pulled back in the past week but may be constrained by the $100 mark until the group reports third quarter results by month end. PanJam Investment could move higher again, as there continues to be buying but there is very limited supply of the stock on offer. Radio Jamaica that came for increased buying recently seems to be seeing supplies coming to market at $1.20 or higher and could get more attention as the weeks roll on. Others worth watching include Caribbean Cement, Berger Paints with little selling, Grace Kennedy for which there is also limited supply. In the Junior market, some demand exists for Derrimon Trading, with a resolution to be voted on at the upcoming AGM to split each share into 10 units, but the price may be stuck around the $20-23 range with the PE more than 20 times 2018 earnings compared to the market average of 11.4. Stationery and Office Supplies continues to trade around the $8 mark, with limited supply on offer, the stock is worth watching but may require second quarter results to kick the price to another level. With the directors stating that they have discussed the possibility of a stock split in the past, the stock can be expected to be one to see a split probably by the next AGM, investors should be stock piling this one with the price being undervalued. Jamaican Teas pulled back in the past week from $5.50 to $5 this week, but with limited stocks being offered for sale, is worth watching. Wisynco seems to have found support just above $9 and is one to watch over the next few weeks as the release of full year result nears, the Jamaican Stock Exchange is another to be watched along with JMMB Group and Seprod.
IPO facts investors should know
“Hello my dear client, the day we have been waiting for to increase your wealth is here. The Mayberry Jamaican Equities IPO has finally arrived, the stock is a must have at this time. Attached are the Prospectus and Application Form for your attention. The official opening date is Monday, July 9, 2018, the demand is high so please don’t delay,” Kind regards, a MIL wealth adviser.
The above was a message sent out by one of Mayberry’s wealth advisor. A group of investors stated in 2017 that investors cannot go wrong with Junior Market IPOs, all that has to be done is just buy, buy, buy and the investor cannot fail to make money. Some investors in the last two IPOs, Sygnus Credit and Everything Fresh bought into the issues heavily, hoping to catch an early bounce and pocket the profit. That the initial bounce did not last, should be a lesson to speculators.
Laden with 6 main and Junior Market stocks, Mayberry Jamaican Equities is issuing 120,114,929 ordinary shares to the public, at a price of $7.57 each. Investors really ought to know what they are buying into when IPOs are being issued, rather than thinking that the price of each IPO can only go in one direction – up. As the stock market matures and more persons come to the party of stock ownership, the valuations that new IPOs come to the market at, will continue to rise and less immediate potential gains will be priced in. In some cases, investors will need to look long term for the payoff from their investment.
Everything Fresh, Sygnus Credit, Stanley Motta and Mayberry Jamaican Equities fall into this category. GWest was another company that many investors got carried away with, in pushing the price to $4 with many buying at inflated values, now the stock trades in the low $2 range. A reminder of an adage, that successful trading starts at buying at the right price. GWest business model is based mainly on generating most income and profits coming from operating mini hospital and other patient care. Real estate income going forward was going to be secondary and would not contribute much to profit. Profit made in the year before listing was mostly from sale of real estate and that was not something that would continue for any prolonged period. Without a track record in providing healthcare, investors who bought the stock in the high $3-4 level must have been hoping that the forecast in the prospectus was going to be achieved on a timely basis. The results to March show revenues well below forecast from the new operations. The company projected medical income to March this year, at $86 million but only generated $17.4 million and that puts the issue of generating the forecasted $710 million for fiscal year 2019, in doubt. Admittedly, the company had projected a loss to March of $110 million but came up sharply lower with a loss of $88 million.
Investors should recognize that not all IPOs are equal. They should also realize that there is a clear pattern that prices then to move up for strongly demanded issues and the undergo some correction. The data shows that the best time to buy after the IPO closes is on the first day or two or a few weeks after when demand falls off and supply increases as short term investors try to offload.
Data for listings in 2016 to 2018 show and average of 31 percent correction for Junior Market stocks from the highest point to the lowest, after listings which tends to occur within 4 weeks of listing. IPOS from Mayberry seem to have a lower pull back in price, around an average of 23 percent while most others, average around 33 percent. Three main market stocks pull back from their highest point, range from just 15 percent for Victoria Mutual Investments to 31 percent for Wisynco and 29 percent for Sygnus Credit Investments.
Based on how investors have gone about pricing IPOs at their peak it seems likely that Indies Pharma will peak around $2.40 based on projected earnings in 2018, of 16 cents per share. It could even go higher if the number of investors who apply for shares exceed those Junior Market listings IPOS from those going back to 2018.