Crude oil plunged 45% Monday

The price of West Texas crude has plunged 45 percent to the lowest level in decades, with the price hitting US$10.85.

Imports of fuel fell in 2016

On Thursday, the price dipped to close on the world market at US$19.73 from over US$62 in December last year. The fall takes place even as major oil producers agreed to cut production by nearly 10 million barrels a day, effective May.
The news is terrible for oil-producing countries but a tremendous gift to net importers of the commodity. In the Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana net exporters of the product will be negatively affected, net importers in the rest of the Caribbean will enjoy a windfall should the low price persist. Jamaica will find the plunge a great gift as it will play a huge role in offsetting the fall in revenues from the tourist trade as at the current price, the country would save around one billion per year.
For consumers, the drop means lower fuel prices, electricity charges, but the government will see less advalorem taxes on petrol collected.

Early Xmas present for Jamaicans

Imports of fuel fell in 2016

Consumers are set to get early Christmas present thanks to a sharply appreciating local dollars and a big drop in the price of oil.
The price of West Texas Crude oil is now down to 55.73 per barrel for the first time in almost a year. The price was at US$55.33 at the start of November last year and started to climb sharply after December to hit US$71 by mid-May this year and just over US$76.40 at the beginning of October before it started a steep decent to today’s level. The technical chart suggest that it could go lower still with excess supplies on the world market and slowing demand.
The cut in price has several implications for Jamaica that is a big importer of the product. It could mean savings in Foreign exchange around US$40 million per month at the current price. It will ease consumers cost as prices of petrol and electricity fall, but government will collect less taxes from petrol and GCT from JPS bills.
The fall also has implications for Bank of Jamaica with their inflation targeting, pitched extremely high originally at more than 4 percent and revised recently down to 3.5 percent on the low end for the fiscal year to March 2019. Those targets seem off as the fall in the price of oil coupled with the sharp revaluation of the local dollar is set to push the country through another round of deflation once more.

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