Jamaica has to rely on the private sector, to help lift it from the economic quagmire it finds itself in, for the past 3 decades. A look at certain data shed some light on the task the country faces.
It tells of a nation where the business sector leaders seem to be managing more from the seat of their pants than based on properly informed position. Take the case of inflation, which ran at 5.1 percent up to August, for 2014, for an average of just less than 0.68 percent per month, and against the back ground of slippage in the exchange rate in the early months that would have helped spike inflation then. With an almost stable Jamaican dollar in September a survey done by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica on behalf of the Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations of Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the future movement of prices in September this year, to which 270 responded, found that their expectation for inflation for 2014, will end at 10.2 percent. On what basis is they arrive at this forecasted amount.
Interestingly, the official inflation rate to October is 7.3 percent, the full year’s figure should hoover around this level with the price of oil on the world market having declined sharply, pulling some local cost down with it.
The business sector record on business confidence both on the current state as well as a year out has no better record as ca be seen from the wild fluctuation in the periodic results.
On the matter of Treasury bill rate, while rates have been declining monthly from a peak in March, this year. The survey respondents expected the rate for the 182 day Treasury bill to come out at 8.6 percent at a time the rate had already declined to 8 percent. Admittedly, the interest rate forecast is not totally inconsistent with the managerial group inflation forecast, as investors would want to be compensated with an interest rates above the inflation as they see it. But if the inflation rate forecasted is as high as the private sector figures there would also be need for a greater slippage in the rate of exchange for the Jamaican dollar versus the US dollar. Yet their perception that the exchange rate would slip by 1.3 percent by the end of 2014 from September, would not be in keeping with the high inflation rate they projected.
Future business confidence jumps 19%
A recent survey, undertaken on behalf of Bank of Jamaica by The Statistical institute of Jamaica, shows continued improvement in the perception of present and future business conditions among respondents within the executive ranks of corporate Jamaica.
The improvement in current conditions show, a gradual monthly improvement since April last year, with periods of slippages in between. The September result of 123.6 reflects a recovery from a fall in August this year to 110.2. It is now just a little higher than the level reached in July of 121.1 and is at its highest since March last year, when the survey showed a 134.7 reading. If the business sector is gaining increasing confidence about current conditions they seem pretty bullish about the future a year out, as the perceptions of future business conditions continue to display a general upward trend, with the latest numbers coming in at 142.4 representing a leap of 19 percent from August this year. The latest survey figures for future conditions, is a shade short of the 148.8 achieved in May 2012 and March 2013.
The data for both surveys show the difficulty in relying on them as to what can really be expected going forward, with fairly high levels of variations. This is also borne out by the forecasting of the business sector on inflation, with their forecast consistently ahead of what the out turns end up being.
J$ lost ground on Tuesday
The Jamaican dollar lost ground against the US and Canadian dollars, but made moderate gains versus the Pound, on Tuesday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$30,942,384 versus US$41,044,618, on Monday, and sold the equivalent of US$29,655,767 compared with US$38,006,185 on Monday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$27,266,191 compared to US$36,252,056 on Monday. The buying rate for the US dollar climbed 13 cents to $112.91 and US$27,247,706 was sold versus US$35,613,463 on Monday. The selling rate edged up 6 cent to end at $113.44. The Canadian dollar buying rate gained $1.33 to $99.05 with dealers buying C$1,800,095 and selling C$1,322,546, at an average selling rate that rose 44 cents, to $100.31. The rate for buying the British Pound dipped 43 cents to $175.06, for the purchase of £1,216,130, while £712,469 was sold, the rate fell 7 cents to $177.34. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$211,675, while the equivalent of US$124,830, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 3 cents higher at $113.63, the lowest buying and highest selling rates are unchanged at $93.10 and $119.30 respectively, but the lowest selling rate dropped $1.59 to $93.10. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 5 cents to $100.85, the lowest buying rate gained 71 cents to $80.51, the highest selling rate slipped 16 cents to close at $103.79. The lowest selling rate remained unchanged at $97. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, remained at $178.10. The lowest buying rate fell $4.02 to $139.20, the highest selling rate moved up 11 cents to $184.68 and the lowest selling rate gained 10 cents to $172.60.
J$ make moderate gains on Monday
The Jamaican dollar made moderate gains against the US and Canadian dollars, but lost value versus the Pound, on Monday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$41,044,618 versus US$39,675,612 on Friday, and sold the equivalent of US$38,006,185 compared with US$33,292,725 on Friday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$36,252,056 compared to US$35,055,562 on Friday. The buying rate for the US dollar fell 20 cents to $112.78 and US$35,613,463 was sold versus US$30,800,856 on Friday. The selling rate edged down 1 cent to end at $113.38. The Canadian dollar buying rate declined $1.46 to $97.72 with dealers buying C$1,766,296 and selling C$745,287, at an average selling rate that fell 55 cents, to $99.87. The rate for buying the British Pound climbed 17 cents to $175.48, for the purchase of £1,822,726, while £889,297 was sold, at the same rate of $177.41, as on Friday. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$426,068, while the equivalent of US$344,734, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 3 cents higher at $113.60, the lowest buying rate rose 25 cents to at $93.10. The highest selling rate remained $119.30 but the lowest selling rate dropped $15.81 to $94.69. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar fell 20 cents higher to $100.80, the lowest buying rate remained unchanged at $79.80, the highest selling rate climbed $1.05 to close at $103.95. The lowest selling rate climbed 85 cents to $97. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, rose 30 cents to $178.10. The lowest buying rate fell 12 cents to $143.22, the highest selling rate moved down 22 cents to $184.57 and the lowest selling rate declined 20 cents to $172.50.
J$ loses against US$ gains on others
The Jamaican dollar lost value against the US dollar but gained versus the Pound and Canadian dollar, on Thursday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$24,125,862 versus US$33,277,310 on Wednesday, and sold the equivalent of US$22,806,454 compared with US$38,330,838 on Wednesday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$20,663,189 compared to US$28,763,554 on Wednesday. The buying rate for the US dollar climbed 9 cents to $112.81 and US$20,336,084 was sold versus US$35,577,230 on Wednesday. The selling rate inched up 2 cents to end at $113.34. The Canadian dollar buying rate climbed $1.52 to $98.90 with dealers buying C$2,075,214 and selling C$1,501,345, at an average selling rate fell 55 cents, to $99.84. The rate for buying the British Pound dropped $1 to $174.86, for the purchase of £987,157, while £551,314 was sold, at $177.46, down 34 cents. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$113,196, while the equivalent of US$284,610, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 3 cents higher at $113.52, the lowest buying rate rose 16 cents to $92.85. The highest selling rate was unchanged at $118.98 but the lowest selling rate declined 50 cents to $110.50. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar is 10 cents higher at $100.30, the lowest buying rate fell 34 cents and ended at $79.51, the highest selling rate was unchanged at $102.93. The lowest selling rate dropped 40 cents to $95.80. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, rose 60 cents to $178.10. The lowest buying rate rose 58 cents to $142.84, the highest selling rate moved up $1.95 to $184.15 and the lowest selling rate gained 70 cents to $172.10.
J$ gains loses value on Wednesday
The Jamaican dollar lost value against all three major currencies it regularly trades with, on Wednesday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$33,277,310 versus US$31,456,476 on Tuesday, and sold the equivalent of US$38,330,838 compared with US$34,496,767 on Tuesday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$28,763,554 compared to US$27,663,380 on Tuesday. The buying rate for the US dollar climbed 2 cents to $112.72 and US$35,577,230 was sold versus US$31,954,441 on Tuesday. The selling rate inched up 9 cents to end at $113.32. The Canadian dollar buying rate fell $1.34 to $97.38 with dealers buying C$1,031,476 and selling C$1,168,977, at an average selling rate that was up 78 cents, to $100.39. The rate for buying the British Pound gained $1.40 to $175.86, for the purchase of £1,888,280, while £771,755 was sold, at $177.80, up $1.36. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$676,80, while the equivalent of US$507,080, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 4 cents higher at $113.49, the lowest buying rate was unchanged at $92.69. The highest selling rate was up 21 cents to $118.98 but the lowest selling rate rose $16.66 to $111. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar was unchanged at $100.20, and so was the lowest buying rate that ended at $79.85, the highest selling rate closed 21 cents higher at $102.93. The lowest selling rate rose 20 cents to $96.20. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, dipped $1.25 to $177.50. The lowest buying rate and the lowest selling rate remained unchanged at $142.26 and $171.40 respectively. The highest selling rate moved down $3.45 to $182.20.
J$ gains on pound loses against others
The Jamaican dollar recorded gains against the British Pound but lost value versus the US and Canadian dollars on Tuesday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$31,456,476 versus US$41,860,767 on Monday, and sold the equivalent of US$34,496,767 compared with US$35,129,589 on Monday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$27,663,380 compared to US$36,285,855 on Monday. The buying rate for the US dollar climbed 17 cents to $112.70 and US$31,954,441 was sold versus US$32,952,884 on Monday. The selling rate inched up 7 cents to end at $113.23. The Canadian dollar buying rate climbed $1.45 to $98.72 with dealers buying C$2,227,276 and selling C$1,784,742, at an average selling rate that was up 27 cents, to $99.61. The rate for buying the British Pound dropped $1.29 to $174.46, for the purchase of £1,044,071, while £424,070 was sold, at $176.43, a fall of 37 cents. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$225,880, while the equivalent of US$311,426, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed unchanged at $113.45, the lowest buying rate gained 17 cents to $92.69. The highest selling rate was unchanged at $118.77 but the lowest selling rate rose $2.33 to $94.34. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar fell 80 cents, to $100.20, the lowest buying rate rose 75 cents to $79.85, the highest selling rate closed 37 cents higher at $102.72. The lowest selling rate rose 70 cents to $96. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, dipped $1.35 to $178.75. The lowest buying rate gained 50 cents to $142.26, the highest selling rate moved up by $2.89 to $185.65 and the lowest selling rate, increased 60 cents to $171.40.
J$ gains against all on Monday
The Jamaican dollar recorded gains against all three main currencies it normally trades in, on Monday. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$41,860,767 versus US$35,659,548 on Friday, and sold the equivalent of US$35,129,589 compared with US$29,494,019 on Friday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$36,285,855 compared to US$32,605,602 on Friday. The buying rate for the US dollar dropped 13 cents to $112.53 and US$32,952,884 was sold versus US$27,680,260 on Friday. The selling rate inched down 2 cents to end at $113.16. The Canadian dollar buying rate fell 19 cents t0 $97.27 with dealers buying C$1,989,565 and selling C$902,623, at an average selling rate that slipped 3 cents, to $99.34. The rate for buying the British Pound increased 76 cents to $175.75, for the purchase of £2,281,857, while £758,614 was sold, at $176.81, a fall of 41 cents. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$291,320, while the equivalent of US$199,043, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 5 cents up to $113.45, the lowest buying and lowest selling rates were unchanged at $92.52 and $92.01 respectively and the highest selling rate rose 21 cents to $118.77. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 25 cents, to $101, the lowest buying rate fell 29 cents to $79.10, the highest selling rate closed 40 cents higher at $102.35. The lowest selling rate rose 9 cents to $95.30. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, jumped $2.20 to $180. The lowest buying rate dipped $1.12 to $141.76, the highest selling rate moved up by $1.37 to $182.76 and the lowest selling rate, fell $1.35 to $170.80.
J$ gains against Pound and Canadian
The Jamaican dollar lost further value against the US dollar, on Friday but gained against the Canadian dollar and the British Pound. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$35,659,548 versus US$26,064,042 on Thursday, and sold the equivalent of US$29,494,019, compared with US$24,932,112 on Thursday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$32,605,602 compared to US$23,625,487 on Thursday. The buying rate for the US dollar rose 6 cents to $112.66 and US$27,680,260 was sold versus US$23,263,499 on Thursday. The selling rate inched up 5 cents to end at $113.18. The Canadian dollar buying rate, remained unchanged at $97.46 with dealers buying C$1,296,781 and selling C$686,153, at an average selling rate that slipped 11 cents, to $99.37. The rate for buying the British Pound declined $1.16 to $174.98, for the purchase of £678,082, while £313,710 was sold, at $177.22, a fall of $1.28. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$878,919, while the equivalent of US$720,097, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, closed 5 cents up to $113.40, the lowest buying and highest selling rates were unchanged at $92.52 and $118.56 respectively and the lowest selling rate fell back $18.49 to $92.01. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 90 cents, to $100.75, the lowest buying rate fell 4 cents to $79.39, the highest selling rate closed 50 cents lower at $101.95. The lowest selling rate slipped $1.79 to $95.21. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, dropped $3.97 to $177.80. The lowest buying rate dipped 79 cents to $142.88, the highest selling rate slipped 83 cents to $181.39 and the lowest selling rate, fell 95 cents to $172.15.
J$ down more against US
The Jamaican dollar lost further value against the US dollar, on Thursday but gained against the Canadian dollar and the British Pound. Authorized dealers purchased the equivalent of US$26,064,042 versus US$41,244,538, on Wednesday, and sold the equivalent of US$24,932,112, compared with US$37,325,070 on Wednesday
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$23,625,487 compared to US$36,644,475 on Wednesday. The buying rate for the US dollar dipped 1 cent to $112.60 and US$23,263,499 was sold versus US$33,587,915 on Wednesday. The selling rate inched up 4 cents to end at $113.13. The Canadian dollar buying rate, fell $1.70 to $97.46 with dealers buying C$1,049,940 and selling C$769,261, at an average selling rate that slipped 24 cents, to $99.48. The rate for buying the British Pound declined 19 cents to $176.14, for the purchase of £916,803, while £487,219 was sold, at $178.50, a fall of 52 cents. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$95,613, while the equivalent of US$223,393, was sold.
Highs & Lows| The highest buying rate for the US dollar, the lowest buying and the highest selling rates were unchanged at $113.35, $92.52 and $118.56 respectively and the lowest selling rate rose $16.48 to $110.50. The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar declined by 35 cents, to $99.85, the lowest buying rate rose 50 cents to $79.43, the highest selling rate closed unchanged at $102.45. The lowest selling rate jumped $1.90 to $97. The highest buying rate for the British Pound, climbed $2.57 to $181.77. The lowest buying rate dipped $7.71 to $143.67, the highest selling rate slipped 51 cents to $182.22 and the lowest selling rate, fell 50 cents to $173.10.