With interest rates softening, some life has entered the Jamaica stock market, with the Junior Market posting gains for a second consecutive week, but the Main Market suffered a mild retreat following notable increases in the last week of April as several ICTOP10 stocks posted solid gains, including Image Plus that posted impressive full year results at the end of the previous week.
Dr. Karlene McDonnough – Chairman of Image Consultants Ltd.
The week ended with several sizable winners in the ICTOP10 and one big loser. Lasco Distributors rose 13 percent to lead the winning stocks, followed by Everything Fresh with a strong 11 percent climb to $1.66, Consolidated Bakeries rose 10 percent to $2.39, Image Plus rallied 9 percent and iCreate rose by 5 percent to $1.47 and fell out of the ICTOP10 and is replaced by Jamaican Teas. Iron Rock Insurance fell 18 percent to close at $1.88 and General Accident slipped 6 percent to $5.08, being the only two losers of significance.
The price of Main Market listed Berger Paints rose 10 percent to $8.30, Caribbean Producers gained 8 percent in closing at $10.56, with the stocks seemingly poised to get back to the $12 region sooner than later as the supply of stocks being sold below $13 has virtually dried up. 138 Student Living popped 6 percent to $5.35, JMMB Group fell 6 percent to $29.60, and Jamaica Broilers slipped 4 percent to $35.70.
Stocks are being prepped to rally, with signals that interest rates will be declining across the board sooner. This stems from the continued slide of BOJ CDs rates since March, which saw the rate falling by 25 percent to 8 percent this past week. Lower interest rates are around the corner, which will be positive for stocks and the signs are already showing.
At the previous week’s close, Image Plus released solid full year results showing profit after tax that jumped 125.6 percent to $213 million or 21 cents per share. Based on those numbers, ICInsider.com revised earnings for the current fiscal year to 35 cents from 30 cents previously. On Monday, the company reported revised results, with the profit being even higher at $252 million, with a reduction in the amount previously booked as professional fees. Based on the revision, projected earnings were raised by the publication to 40 cents per share for the current fiscal year. The stock sits at the number three spot in the ICTOP10. The revision raises some serious questions about how such matters escaped the directors, auditors and the financial controller before the audited financial statements were released.
Dolla Financial fell out of the TOP10 at the end of the previous week and this past week released impressive first quarter results that excited investors who responded well to them by driving the price to close the week at $2.89, with the price hitting a high of $2.99 on Friday. The company seems poised to deliver ICInsider.com forecasted earnings of 40 cents, provided they obtain loans on a timely basis to on lend.
The Junior Market’s long history of rising around a month before the release of quarterly results and declining shortly after results are released seems to be starting with a rise of 108 points in the market index in the previous week with more this past week, with the supply of some stocks continuing to fall sharply.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 5.5, well below the market average of 13.5. The Main Market TOP10 is projected to have an average of 273 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The 16 highest valued Main Market stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 110, with an average of 28 and 19 excluding the highest PE stocks and 20 for the top half excluding the stocks with the highest valuation.
The Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.7 compared with the market at 11.5. There are 12 stocks, or 25 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 26, averaging 20, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 16, suggesting that this may currently be the lowest fair value for Junior Market stocks. Junior Market is projected to rise by 258 percent to May 2024.
The differences between the average PE ratio of the Main and Junior Markets and the overall market valuation are important indicators of the likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but not always. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
