Big payoff for Access owners

Access Financial Services declared an interim dividend of 31 cents per share payable on August 15, 2013 to shareholders on record as at August 9, 2013.  The ex-dividend date is August 7, 2013.

This is the first time the company is paying two dividends in one year. The last dividend paid was an interim dividend of $0.65 per share payable on February 27, 2013 to shareholders on record as at February 21, 2013 and related to 2012 profit.

The latest dividend announced will, when paid, bring the dividend payment to 96 cents for the year and will give shareholders a yield of 15.23 percent based on the stock price at the start of the year of $6.30. The Chairman has confirmed that “Access is likely to pay more than one dividend payment for the fiscal year going forward.”

The stock last traded at $8.15, a gain of 29 percent so far. IC Insider is projecting that the stock will rise much further as profit for this year could rise to well over $1 per share.

Unilever stock not supported by profits

When stock prices rise much faster than the growth in profits, we need to take time to take note of what is happening. Investors in such stocks should be fully conversant with the factors at play to ensure that their investment can be properly protected if, and when, the factors change.

Unilever Caribbean stock price is up 13 percent so far this year on top of a 45 percent increase in 2012, 44 percent in 2011 and 35 percent in 2010 after a 16 percent fall in 2009. The company a subsidiary of Unilever PLC, a United Kingdom company, is based in Trinidad and manufactures a range of homecare, personal care and food products for the Caribbean region, including Jamaica, and has been having a reasonable profit performance for a number of years. In fact they have been able to improve sales and margins in a market that has been in recession since 2009. The growth in the stock price is well in excess of the rise in profits for the past four and half years.

Some of the company’s brands include Mistolin, Radiante, Breeze, Vaseline, Lux, Lipton, Becel and Blue Band. The product range also includes dishwashing liquids as well as fabric conditioners.

unileverLogo150x150For the three months to March this year, revenues climbed to $133 .6 million up from $127.5 million for the same period in 2012 while profits were up to $13 million after tax compared to $11.9 million in 2012. The December quarter is the biggest period for earnings with more than a third being generated in the period. For 2012 full year to December the company reported after tax profit of $59.5 million an increase of 2.8 percent over that earned in 2011. Profit for 2011 was up 11 percent over 2010 and 2010 profit was up 26 percent over the previous year. Lower interest rates in Trinidad have helped to push the PE ratio to 21 times earnings at a current stock price of $53.25, up from 14 times in 2011 and 11.5 for 2010.

Unilever reported areas of success reflected in good growth in some of its products but also expressed concerns about rising input cost of some of the products it manufactures as well as competition from cheaper products. From all indications, management seems to have managed to steer the operations well resulting in improved margins, which moved from 61.8 percent in 2012 first quarter to 63.8 percent in 2013, a continuation of the marked improvement seen for 2012 when the margins for the full year came out at 63.7 percent vs the 59.2 percent enjoyed in 2011.

While cost increase seems to be under control in 2013 for the first quarter, that was not the case in 2012 when selling cost rose by $17 million or 17 percent and administrative cost rose 22 percent, well above the growth in revenues. For the quarter, selling cost rose by 4.8 percent and administrative cost rose 2.7 percent while revenues are up 4.75 percent.

The company boast equity capital of $176 million, has no interest bearing debt and a high current asset ratio with liabilities almost covered twice over.

The stock seems poised to rise further as demand exceeds the supply of the stock on the Trinidad market.

Low loan demand squeezes BNS TT

Scotia Bank Trinidad & Tobago hit a new 52 weeks high recently in the price of its stock, so what is happening at the bank to warrant the move in the stock price? Last year the stock was selling at $60.86 in April and on June 24, 2013 it sold at $70.01, a 15 percent rise, yet profits have not been growing all that well. However, the bank raised its dividend from 32 cents per share quarterly last year to 40 cents this year.

Interestingly, the fortune of the Trinidad bank and that of its Jamaican counterpart are tracking similar paths. In Jamaica, profits for Scotia Group have not grown from 2009, almost the same has happened in the Trinidad bank, with no growth since 2011. It looks as if the trend will continue for the Trinidad bank this year as well.

For the six months to April this year, Scotia Trinidad profits just barely budged above the results for the same period in 2012. Net Interest income fell from $462 million in 2012 to $443 million in 2013 but other income rose from $172 million to $224.5 million. The bank was able to keep a lid on expenses which rose from by $24 million to $314 million leaving a profit before tax of $353 6 million some $10 million more than that earned in 2012.

After allowance for taxation of $83 million, net profit rose to $273 million up slightly from $268.7 million in 2012. In the latest April quarter, after tax profits grew by only $1.9 million to reach $128.9 million.

scotiabanklogo150x150The bank seems to have a good grip on loan quality as provisioning bad loans is very low at just $8 million for the six months, an improvement over the $10.5 million in 2012.

Return on Equity | The bank boasts a return on equity of 17.27 percent for the six months period, down from 18.47 percent for the full twelve months for 2012 financial year, which ended in October.

Where is the growth? | For profits to really grow attractively, the bank must grow its loans and assets at a faster pace than it has been doing since 2009. Loans to customers climbed by to $10 billion up from $9.96 billion in October but is flat with April 2012. Deposits did better as these rose to $13.47 billion up from $12.77 billion in April and $12.9 billion in October last year. Loans on the books in October last year contracted compared to the previous year by $700 million or 7 percent. Assets grew by 4 percent in 2012, 5 percent in 2011 and one percent in 2010 down from 11 percent in the previous year. The bank reported of assets of $18.4 billion and equity capital of $3.2 billion.

The bank operates in an economy that is yet to recover from the recession that started in 2008. A lot of the growth a few years prior to 2008 was induced by a major boost in the construction sector, which left newly built units that took awhile to either occupy or sell. This has been a serious drag on the construction sector and by extension, slowed growth in the economy. Without economic growth, bank lending will be slow, which is the main area for growth in income. GDP performance is as follows: 2009, minus 3.3 percent, 2010, 0 percent 2011, minus 1.3 percent, 2012, a positive 1.7 percent. The construction sector fared even worse falling by 7 percent in 2009, 28 percent in 2010 and 8 percent in 2011.

Stock outlook | Against this economic background, it appears that investors cannot expect to see electrifying growth in profits for some time. They also have to be aware that interest rates on savings are at very low levels and any upturn could affect the valuation of stocks on the Trinidad stock market further down the road.

JSE speaks of 2012 achievements

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Marlene Street Forrest in her overview of the Jamaica Stock Exchange group company’s performance for 2012 and operational plans for 2013 and beyond, stated that although there were economic challenges, the JSE saw an increase in operating income of 93%.

The Company’s operating income moved from $281M in 2011 to $542M in 2012, which contributed to the JSE Group’s net profit increasing from $34M in 2011 to $129M in 2012 an increase of 279% in net profit. Street Forrest told the audience that although most of the Exchange’s revenue came from trading fees she also attributed the increased in profitability to a diversification of the revenue streams for both the company and its subsidiary, which enabled the Exchange to survive in a difficult economic environment.

She indicated that the Exchange achieved a number of other positives during 2012:  Increase in the number of companies on the Junior stock market, sale of member dealer license, progress made towards listing of JSE’s ordinary Shares,  business process improvement, document management and  business continuity plan.

The following goals were set for 2013/2014 period:

  1. Listing of the JSE’s ordinary shares
  2. Concentration of effort at marketing the JSE
  3. Developing markets, new products and services for our customers such as:
      • Trading Government and corporate securities
      • Fixed Income Instruments
      • Depository receipts

At the special board meeting held immediately after the annual general meeting, Messer Donovan Perkins and Allan Lewis were returned as Chairman and Deputy Chairman respectively and Steven Whittingham was elected to the JSE Board subject to the FSC’s approval.

KPREIT a medium term investment

Funding an operation with low interest rate foreign currency loans while the home based currency is weak can prove costly, and the way the accounting profession treats the changes in currency movement can mean profit or loss at least in the short term. That is what’s happening to  Kingston Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (KPREIT) in the latest results to March this year. Revenue was up 13 percent but profit plummeted to a loss, thanks to a foreign exchange loss of $14.5 million incurred in the quarter. The company recorded a net loss of $7.2 million after a tax credit of $3.56 million, but total group comprehensive income was $15.2 million, an increase of 144.8% versus $6.2 million reported for the quarter ended March, 2012.

Revenues | Revenues climbed to $23.5 million in the 2013 quarter up from $20.8 million in 2012. This reflects primarily rental increase for existing tenants and a stronger rental market for new tenants especially at the Loft II in Miami, the company’s management reported.

Group operating expenses, consisting of direct property expenses and administrative costs, were $14.8 million, versus $10.3 million for the similar period a year ago. Direct property expenses include insurance, property taxes, homeowners’ association (HOA) fees, broker fees and repairs & maintenance. These represented 60.4% of operating expenses for the March 2013 quarter versus 58.4% for the similar period last year. Increase in direct property expenses accounted for approximately $2.9 million of the $4.5 million increase in overall operating expenses. The major contributors were repairs & maintenance, HOA fees and property taxes.

KingstonProperitesREIT_logo130X140Group finance costs were $19.6 million for the quarter compared with $7.4 million for the similar period in 2012. These amounts include unrealized losses of $14.3 million and $2.5 million respectively, due to foreign currency translation losses resulting from the devaluation of the Jamaican dollar.

Balance Sheet | Significant balance sheet assets are Investment Properties of $850 million at the end of the quarter versus $641.4 million at March, 2012 and cash & cash equivalent of $195 million compared with $185.3 million for the similar period last year.

The primary drivers of the increase in the investment properties were fair value gains of $166.3 million on the Red Hills Road property and positive currency impact of $30.3 million on the Miami residential condominiums. Included in cash and cash equivalent is restricted amounts of $168.1 million.

Total group liabilities were $350.3 million at March, 2013 versus $331.5 million at March 31, 2012. These amounts include current and non-current loans payable at the end of the quarter of $325.1 million and $305.2 respectively. The liabilities are primarily mortgage loans. The devaluation of the Jamaican dollar resulted in an increase in the loans which are quoted in the United States dollar and amounted to US$3.4 million at end of March 2013 versus US$3.6 million at end of March 2012.

Cash flow | Net cash provided by operations was $23.9 million for the quarter versus $22.7 million for the similar period last year. A dividend was paid in the March 2013 quarter amounting to $9.9 million, a 63.1% increase over the $6.1 million paid in the March 2012 quarter.

Long term pay-off | Real estate investment is not a good cash generator at least not in the early stage of the investment. By its very nature, the level of income to be made in the short term will be limited. One strategy the company has is the investment in the apartments in Florida that could be disposed of when that market fully recovers and therefore provide cash flow for distribution or capital for expansion. Investors in the stock are likely to have to wait for a while for a big pay day. Nevertheless the stock provides a option to diversify ones investments.

Guardian ongoing profits up 29%

Guardian Holdings, an insurance group primarily involved with life insurance underwriting, reported after tax profit of US$11 million compared to $15 million earned in the first quarter last year. Last year’s results were bolstered by an exceptional foreign exchange gain of $3 million and this quarter’s outcome was impaired by the loss of $5 million derived from participation in Jamaica’s National Debt exchange (NDX). Excluding these two items, the after tax profits results would have grown 29 percent to $16 million.

Premium Income | Gross premiums grew 25 percent from $214 million in first quarter 2012 to $268 million in this first quarter. Excluding $12 million generated from a new acquisitions, gross premiums written grew by 20 percent.

Net results from insurance activities improved 52 percent to reach $20 million from $13 million in the previous year’s quarter. New acquisitions contributed $1 million, in line with management’s expectations.

The new Netherlands-based broker, Thoma, contributed $2 million in fee income. Investment income, excluding the loss relating to the NDX, came in at $36 million compared to $37.7 million in 2012 (exceptional foreign exchange gains are included 2012 figures). The new acquisitions resulted in increased operating expenses and finance charges increasing by 21 percent and moving costs from $32 million in 2012 to $38 million in this year’s quarter.

Segment Results | Premiums written in the Life, Health and Pensions business increased by 16 percent over the comparable period.  The Property and Casualty segment’s top line was bolstered by the recent acquisition of Globe Insurance, the quarterly results of which were consolidated into the Group’s figures for the first time, and by low-risk fronting arrangements from which fee income was received. Net premiums written, which are premiums after deducting fronting premiums and reinsurance costs, grew $5 million or 17 percent over the comparable quarter.

GHL_logographic150x150Operating profit, while still strong at $7 million for the first quarter, declined $2 million from the 2012 figure due to increased claims activity and the one-off effect of this segment’s portion of the NDX.

Integration | The company’s management said, “they have moved diligently with the integration of Globe and West Indies Alliance and are quite pleased with the achievements obtained to date. Thoma has been fully consolidated into our reporting and contributed $0.65 million to after tax profits this quarter. Although it has occurred after the reporting period, I am pleased to reveal that we have now received all necessary regulatory approvals for our acquisition of Royal & Sun Alliance, Antilles (RSA). Details will be given in the report for the ensuing quarter.

“The Asset Management business contributed $1 million in operating profits for the quarter, down from the $2 million earned in the same quarter last year. This decline is attributable to lower fair value gains in this quarter due to the weak investment climate persisting across the territories in which we do business.”

Assets & Equity | Guardian has the size and equity base to expand and grow profits. As of March, total assets amounts to $3.6 billion with shareholder’s equity of $500 million.

Stock outlook | Earnings per share last year came in at US22 cents or TT$1.40, which is fetching a stock price of TT$17 on the Trinidad stock market giving it an historical PE ratio of 12. Investor’s Choice projects US30 cents per share for 2013 putting the PE at just 9. Compare that to West Indian Tobacco with a rich PE of 27 or Republic Bank with 15 times. It would appear that dividend yield is a major force for the PE differential. WITCO yields around 3.30 percent while Treasury bill rates are under one percent. Guardian has a yield of 3.7 percent.

A buy | Guardian is a good long term investment for a stock that is clearly undervalued in a market where price earnings ratio tend to be much higher than the level Guardian is priced at.

Palace’s $22m 3rd Qtr hit

While many local companies suffered from the negative effects of reduced profit due to costs associated with the write off of unrealised capital gains on government bonds, Palace had a totally different experience. Net results for the March quarter fell sharply to a loss of $22 million from a profit of $2.65 million in 2012. Nevertheless, thanks to a strong first half, the company reported a $8.2 million loss compared to a profit of $5.3 million earned for the nine months of the previous year.

Operating cost fell by $16 million or 10 percent for the quarter while administrative cost was up 11 percent to $34 million but it was the slide in income that was noticeable and probably worrying. Admittedly, the March quarter is usually the worse quarter the company faces. But it is the sharpness of the drop that is surprising. In the 2012 quarter, Palace generated income of $193.5 million, this fell 21 percent or a whopping $41 million to $152.3 million.

Interestingly, the 2013 revenue performance is only 8 percent better than the 2011 quarterly income even as inflation would have affected cost and the price for goods and services sold by Palace would have gone up since 2011. The fall off in 2013 comes against the background of the company introducing a new product, the showing of live operas on screen and an encore season of opera’s best in the summer. Without them, revenues would have been lower. Year to March, the company recorded revenues of $584.7 million that is lower than the $599.5 million generated up to March 2012.

PalaceAmusement3Data on the individual cinemas indicates that the sharp fall in revenues was across all locations except Palace Cineplex. Carib revenues fell $13 million, Cineplex was up $1 million, Palace Multiplex in Montego Bay dropped $13 million and Odeon in Mandeville fell by $4 million. The falloff in the two rural cinemas was far worse than for Carib, in relation to the income for the 2012 March quarter.

The picture up to the December results suggested that 2012/13 would have been by far the company’s best year, but the poor third quarter results have changed the outlook for full year’s profits completely, as it will be nigh impossible to overcome the negative impact of the loss made in the latest quarter.  ICInsider understands that the fall in revenues is due primarily to a shift in a particular brand of film which would normally be shown in the March quarter but will be shown in the June quarter.

In spite of the quarterly loss, Palace had cash funds of $60 million at the end of March, while current assets exceed current liabilities by $36 million. Loans amount to $42 million with equity of $271 million.

Photo via: www.PalaceAmusement.com

RJR’s $106M 4th quarter loss

Things are not good for the media houses these days as economic pressure and the withdrawal of Claro mobile operations from the Jamaican market coupled with a soft economy has cut revenues for this sector. In a tough economy, RJR group suffered a pretax loss of $106 million in the quarter ending in March after writing off $35 million for impairment of the investment in Reggae TV and JNN. This result is a major swing from the similar quarter of 2012 when a profit of $15.6 million was made. Result after tax for the period came out at a loss of $51 million versus a profit of $5.6 million in 2012.

A 5 percent fall in revenue to $446 million from $470 million in the 2012 quarter was one of the major contributors to that big loss in the quarter.

Annual Loss | For the year to March, the loss before taxation came out at $79.5 million and $36.4 after tax, compared to a pretax profit of $146.5 million in 2012 and a net of $87.4 million after taxation of $59 million. The company reported revenues of $1.866 billion for the year, in 2012 revenues were $1.937 billion a decline of 3.7 percent.

RJR_Newslogo150x150Bad debt provision increased from $10.7 million to $30.5 million and special events cost amounted to $186.8 million compared to $90.3 million in the prior year.

While amounts in receivables were kept relatively constant with the previous year’s figures, payables at the end of March climbed to $124 million versus $44 million and the company borrowed $201.5 million. Fixed and intangible assets were purchased amounting to $192 million of which FIFA world cup rights accounts for a large portion.

Decline | The company has suffered a series of set backs over the years. One that is most noticeable is the fall in return on equity from 21 percent in 2000 and 19.7 percent in 2010 to 10.3 percent in 2011, 6.4 percent in 2012 and now a negative return in 2013. Even adjusting for the one-off cost items that are in the 2013 fiscal year, profit would still be inadequate to beat the return on equity of 2012.

RJR recovered from a stunning loss of $129 million in 2009 to record a profit of $222 million in 2010, so it could recover again. However, there are some differences. In 2010, revenues rose by nearly 21 percent on top of a 7 percent in the two previous years. This time around revenues are down in a soft market for advertising as revenues were flat in 2011, declined in 2012 and again in 2013. This is not a market where revenues can be easily raised to dramatically turn around profits. On the positive side, there are some costs in 2013 that should not recur in 2014. Depreciation charge is $109 million, which is not a cash item, so even if it were to continue to make a small loss it can continue to operate for a long time until it recovers as cash flow can be positive.

FIFA rights | The company paid $83.55 million for the exclusive right to transmit FIFA football matches in Jamaica between 2015 to 2022 which means that it will be some time before this investment pays off.

The company’s stock trades at $1.37 and it is difficult to see how this stock will be able to justify a higher price with these results, but more importantly, how will the company grow revenues or cut cost to restore reasonable profitability.

$2B slide in landline revenues sinks C&WJ

Cable & Wireless (C&WJ) revenues from landlines slipped $2 billion in the year ending March 2013 which helped push the company’s operating income into a loss before an exceptional charge of $2.75 billion relating mostly to reduction in staffing. A $670 million increase in mobile revenues could not prevent a slide of $1 billion in overall revenues which came in at $19.1 billion versus $20.4 billion in the previous year. In spite of the fall in revenue, a $1.5 billion drop in out payments made to other carriers offset by $500 million increase in other cost of sales resulted in gross profit slipping by just $340 million.

New rates | Last year June, when it announced radically new low rates, “the company indicated that it hoped the “game-changing” Talk EZ plan will double its market share from 18 per cent to 36 per cent within three years. It currently has 400,000 pre-paid customers and 50,000 subscribers, according to a Jamaica Observer report. The initial up take of the service last year suggested that they were on target to achieving that target with 250,000 new subscribers by the end of December but by March this year the numbers melted down to a 16 percent net increase or just under 100,000.

More customers | For the September quarter, the company stated that the mobile customer base increased by 20% and that they attracted 100,000 customers within 100 days of launching the new plan. Extrapolating, they started off with 500,000 mobile customers which reached 600,000 by September. In March the company shifted the tax of 50 cents per minute on cell calls to customers which they had absorbed from July last year when it was 40 cents per minute. This shift seems to have resulted in the attrition in new customers. Our estimate is that C&W decision to absorb the cell tax, cost the company about $500 million, a cost that won’t be repeated this year.

cellphone280x150Banking | The company is banking on the recent reduction in termination rate to hand it an advantage, as they retain more of the amount customers spend with them, as they talk more with the new rate for both local and overseas calls to other networks. Down the road they expect that number portability will also present them with another opportunity as mobile users will be freer to switch networks.

Going forward | “Now that we have the new, lower Mobile Termination Rate that will be almost 90 percent less than what it was a year ago, LIME is in a better position to increase subscriber numbers and grow revenues,” management said in an exclusive response to IC Insider.

What seems logical is that persons will be less concerned about what number they are calling once the various rates are close to each other. So the scenario where customers were ring fenced to calling within their network due to the high cost of calling other network will no longer exists, allowing for freer calling and quite likely more time spent talking.

It will also reduce staffing and related costs and have a net benefit as a result of outsourcing the repairs and servicing to Ericsson. The first quarter of the last fiscal year had a lower margin on calls made to other networks as the termination rate came into effect in July 2012. In this year’s first quarter, C&WJ will enjoy a higher margin on cross network calls, helping improve the bottom line.

The savings to come from outsourcing of the field service support and from the absorption of the mobile call tax plus some growth in net cell revenues suggest that the company should be much closer to a profitable position, if not a profit, in the current year from normal operational expenses, assuming they maintain substantially existing business and continue to add mobile customers and get more talk time from existing ones.

Stock outlook | The stock last traded at 16 cents with a bid of 17 cents. The company has a negative net book value and it owes the parent company $28 billion which attracts interest at Treasury bill rates plus 1 percent. Working capital is negative with current assets being less than current liabilities.

LASCO Manufacturing: one for the radar

LASCO Manufacturing enjoyed a 15 percent increased profit for the year ended March 2013 before taxation from increased revenue of 13% for the year. Profit after taxation was up only 9 percent as the 2012 results benefited from a tax credit which boosted the after tax figure. In the latest quarter, revenues were up just 8 percent, a lower pace than the September and December quarters with growth of 21 percent and 15 percent respectively. But the best is yet to come with the near completion of the factory expansion that will cut cost and result in new products being introduced.

4th Quarter | Pretax profit for the March quarter was up 29 percent to reach $175 million. After tax, the increase was just 8 percent. In the March quarter, gross margin increased from 27 percent in 2012 to 30.7 percent and is up from 27 percent in the December quarter. Administrative expenses rose 6.5 percent year over year, much less than the growth in revenues while selling and promotional expenses remained flat for the year, helping to boost profit.

The improvement shown in a better margin and subdued cost increases has been highlighted by management in a report to shareholders. “The company continues to focus on cost control, cost containment, cost management and increased efficiency,” the statement said.

Lasco_FoodManufactoring150x150Financials | Trade Receivables increased by $180 million from $447 million in 2012 which management states was due to a temporary timing difference of payment with one of their distributors and has subsequently been settled. Inventory also increased $210 million from $279 million in 2012. Equity capital was $1.9 billion at the end of March, enough to facilitate the loan taken on, allowing for appropriate coverage.

Factory expansion  | LASCO Manufacturing embarked on 70 percent factory expansion of the manufacturing operation which is nearing completion at the White Marl location. When completed with new machineries in production, cost is expected to be reduced considerably. The areas that the reduction will be most visible include direct production cost, with less direct labour, material waste and cost relating to the double handling of goods. The capital spend on the expansion at the end of March is $1.7 billion out of a budgeted expenditure of J$2.2b. So far the company has drawn down J$1 billion of a loan facility to help fund the capital expenditure with the rest coming from internally generated funds.

“We are poised for further growth as we experienced higher demand for our products in the local and export markets in the past year,” Management said.

Products | The company manufactures several well-known food items such the soy protein based LASCO food drinks, LaSoy Lactose Free, Oats Porridge Mix. It will also package Full Cream Milk Powder and Skimmed Milk Powder and purchase and co-package a wide range of other food items, consumer, personal care, infant care and household products.

Exports | The company exports its products to 23 countries, including UK, Canada and USA. Export sales now represent 9% of overall sales.

Stock outlook | Lasco has a competitive advantage with a well-known and respected brand and the expansion will reduce the cost of production making the existing products even more competitive. New products are to be added to the existing ones and some products that are being manufactured by others will be produced in house.

The stock price raced to $15 after the company announced a 10 for 1 stock split and it gained added support with the release of the recent results. The growth seen during the year, with more to come, makes this stock one that must be on all investors’ radar.