The 2014 world cup will end up in South America, but it won’t go to Jamaicans beloved Brazil or their second love Argentina. 
Jamaican dream of seeing their first and the second choice teams win the world cup football seems set to be shattered unless something miraculous happens. Neither of these teams have found the critical element to score enough goals and even if they do, there are serious questions about their ability to defend their goal. Brazil scored 9 goals so far and conceded 3, while Argentina scored 7 and gave up 3, that equates to 1 net goal per match for Argentina and 1½ for Brazil. Holland scored 12 goals and gave up 4 for a net score of two per match, France scored 10 goals for and two against for 1½ per match in their favour and Germany had a net goal score of 5 with 8 for and 3 against. Columbia scored 11 with 2 against, for just over two per match. Costa Rica the giant killers scored 5 with 2 against. IC Insider that forecasted all the winners in the quarter finals is now forecasting that the 2014 world cup winner will be Columbia.
Costa Rica should bow up when they play Holland, thus ending their dream run. Columbia will beat Brazil and Belgium will beat Argentina, France will put Germany out to pasture.
Columbia will win 2014 world cup
Wipe out of Ja fiscal deficit seems likely
With two months out of the 2014/15 fiscal year reported on, the Peter Phillips led Ministry of Finance seems set to again report a wipe out of the fiscal deficit at the end of the fiscal year that ends in March 2015. The budget had suggested a deficit of just over $11 billion. So far there is a $5 billion improvement in the deficit to May with a $2.1 billion improvement in revenues and a $2.9 billion cut in expenditure with capital expenditure accounting for $1.5 billion of the expenditure reduction,but it would be the buoyancy of the revenues that would have been pleasing to the Minister. The country in the past has seen impressive performances in the early months of the financial year only to be face with cuts in expenditure later, as revenues failed to meet the targets set. It will not be clear if the current revenue trend continues, the next few months to come will paint a clearer picture of the likely outturn.
Total revenues which were projected at $52 billion ended at $54 billion and expenditure of $69.6 billion came in at $66.7 billion instead. $752 million less was spent on the wage bill and $676 on programs. Tax revenues brought in $1.87 billion more than projected. The deficit ended at $12.6 billion versus $17.6 billion projected.
Imports drop, exports drop
Devaluation of the local currency since the start of 2013 that should be helping move exports upwards had no visible impact on overall exports of goods in the first quarter of this year compared with 2013, it however, could be impacting imports somewhat as imports have fallen partially as a result. Jamaica imported US$1.412 billion </a>of goods down from US$1.647 billion imported in the January to March quarter last year, representing a reduction of US$235 million or 14.3 percent.
Exports on the other hand came in at US$358 million, down from US$469 million in the 2013 quarter. The decrease in exports was US$111 million or 23.6 percent and is due mainly to a fall in Alumina exports which fell from US$236 million in the comparable 2013 period to US$105 million this year. The merchandise trade deficit for the quarter ended at US$1.054 billion compared to US$1.178 billion in the similar quarter of 2013. The information was released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica today.
Imports| Non-fuel imports during March 2014 quarter declined by US$176 million or 16 percent versus 2013 ending at US$907 million, down from US1.08 billion in the 2013 period. Mineral Fuels, declined by US$59 million or 10.5 percent. Imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods decreased from US$1.11 billion in the 2013 review period to US$863 million in the 2014 review period.
Traditional exports fell by US$37 million to US$168 million in the 2014, down from US$205 million in the 2013 period, a decrease of or 18 percent of this Agricultural commodities fell by US$2.5 million or 35.0 percent and were valued at US$4.6 million. The decline in earnings from “Coffee” exports which fell to US$3 million was the main contributor to this decrease.
Mining and Quarrying was valued at US$135 million, a decrease of 20.1 percent, moving from US$169 million in the 2013 review period.. “Manufacture” recorded a 2 percent decline and was valued at US$28 million compared to the US$28.5 million recorded for the similar January to march 2013 period. Non-traditional domestic exports during January to March 2014 were valued at US$177 million.
Columbia, Netherlands or France world cup winner?
The IC Insiders forecast for the quarter finals winners is spot on so far. With only two matches to go the IC Insider’s forecast have been panned out exactly as set out in our report prepared after the preliminary rounds were completed. The closeness of the quarter finals suggest that matches in the semis should be very close once more. Data suggest that the three top teams likely to land the cup are Columbia, Netherlands and France. All three appears to be very close but with Columbia having a very small edge. Brazil is a some what off from the three leading teams.
Ranking| IC Insider ranked the teams in the quarter finals and make its forecast based on the preliminary round performance of the teams. The report that was posted indicated that Brazil the number 4 ranked team should have the better of the number 10 team, Chile with the latter scoring 5 goals and conceding 3 versus Brazil with an 8 to 2 superior record. Holland with 10 goals for and 3 against should have the better of Mexico with a 4 for 1 record, but this is not expected to be a walk over as the Mexicans demonstrated in the preliminary rounds that they don’t intend to quit easily. Columbia’s 9 goals for and 2 against should, on paper place them ahead of Uruguay the number 13 ranked team with 4 and 4 but the latter performance in their last two matches suggests that it could go either way. Costa Rica looks as if they will progress to the next round over Greece who only won one match and have a negative goal difference with only two goals being scored by them. Costa Rica 4 goals and one against was achieved in one of the toughest groups. 
France the IC insider’s number 3 team should be too good for the number 15 team, Nigeria, the same is true for Germany IC Insider ranked number 5 team who should do away with Algeria the number 12 team. Argentina the number 6 team should blow away the Swiss team who are ranked at 11 with 7 goals for and 6 against compared to 6 to 3 for Argentina. Belgium on paper should have the better of the USA having had a superior goal difference and what a appears a more solid defense but the USA team seems to have a better goal hungry approach, if the latter can do better in defense than their last two encounters they look as if they are in with a good chance of winning.
J$ crosses $112 mark for first time
Dealers sold US$24,262,138 on Thursday at a record high of J$112.03 to US$1 as the selling rate rose by 4 cents compared to the closing rate on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar also gained against the local currency but the Jamaican dollar gained against the British Pound. Inflows and outflows were almost even, with the equivalent of US$27,672,890 purchased, to US$27,581,379 sold compared to the equivalent of US$29,420,890 bought and $30,842,690 sold on the previous trading day. In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$23,556,430 compared to US$24,714,017 on Wednesday as the buying rate for the US dollar slipped by a cent to $111.43 and sold US$24,262,138 versus US$27,513,720 on Wednesday with the rate closing up 4 cents at $112.03.
The Canadian dollar buying rate increased by $1.51 to $103.95 with dealers buying C$2,340,981 and selling C$2,655,428 as the rate rose by 39 cents to end at $104.89.
The Pound closed at $188.04, for the purchase of £1,066,780, the rate fell back $1.01, while £460,546 was sold, with the rate easing by 18 cents to $190.50. Other currencies bought, amounted to the equivalent of US$132,656 while selling accounted for the equivalent of just US$49,931.
Highs & Lows| The highest rate for buying the US dollar rose 10 cents to $112.60, the lowest buying rate of $91.02, the highest selling rate at $116.63 and the lowest rate of $90.81 were all unchanged at the end of Thursday’s trading.
The highest buying rate for the Canadian dollar rose 28 cents to $104.98, in the meantime the lowest buying rate remained unchanged at $82.50, the highest selling rate rose by $1.21 to $107.57 and lowest selling rate rose 10 cents to $99.50.
The highest buying rate for the Pound increased 5 cents to $191 while the lowest buying rate fell back by $7.32 to $151.89. The highest selling rate rose by $2.63 to $195.86 and the lowest selling rate was up 5 cents to $183.05.
FIFA incredible ranking system left wanting
The world cup finals are making a mockery out of FIFA ranking system for its members. For years FIFA has been using a system of moving nations up and down the ranking ladder based on results of games played. Unless there are regular interchange of teams globally so that there is a good comparison that can be done internationally, the ranking system is likely to be flawed which is exactly what the June rankings and the world cup outcomes indicate. Commentators have been caught out as well as they have in many cases limited information to compare one team with another. The results many have been confounded by the results of world cup 2014.
FIFA number 1 team Spain won just one match but only after they were eliminated from this year’s world cup finals, the number 10 team England never even won a match, their no 9 ranked team managed just one win and bowed out of the tournament at the end of the preliminary round. The number 4th ranked team Portugal is in with a chance of staying in the top 16 but may well not make it.
The 28th team Costa Rica won all their matches against the 7th, 9th and 10th ranked teams, the team that was ranked at 44 is in the top 16. Korea Republic that was ranked at 57 did better than many ranked above them and so is the case with Iran that was ranked at 43, Ghana was ranked at 37 and is close to being in the top 16.
Something must be terrible wrong with a system that gets the ranking so wrong. FIFA needs to revisit this system if it to have credibility as the present system has little. But this is not the only thing that FIFA a body of mostly well aged men control. Cricket has moved to let technology help in determining the accuracy of developments during a cricket match, tennis has done so for years but FIFA has refused to move into the modern era except belated for goal post technology. The present series and past ones have had so many bad calls that the time has long gone for football to move fully into the modern world and let technology assists the referees on the field.
WI closing in on with a win
the West Indies now need to take 2 more wickets to claim victory in the second test against New Zealand in Port of Spain, Trinidad. New Zealand trail by 18 runs with 8 second innings wicket down. Scores in the match New Zealand 221 and 221 for 8 in their second innings and WI 460 all out in their first innings. New Zealand lead the series 1 nil at this stage.
Croatia 4-0 as Cameroon players fight
Croatia the better playing team in the world cup match. demolished a Cameroon team that fell apart as one of its player effectively gave himself a red card and departed play, minutes before the end of the first half. At the end of an entertaining world cup match, the Cameroon team not only lost but will be heading home as they are without a point, with only one game to play. Things deteriorated for the Cameroon team when two players were virtually in a fight close to the end of play.
Croatia has a chance to move forward to the next round but would need to beat Mexico or if they draw they would have to rely on Cameroon pulling off an unlikely win against Brazil when they play next week.
T-bill rates drop sharply
The average rate for the 90 day Treasury bill instrument came out at 7.66 percent at today’s auction, down sharply from the May auction which came out at an average of 8.2 percent as Government sought to raise $400 million for this time frame but the auction saw $851 million chasing after the amount available. The 180 day instrument which averaged 8.932 percent in May plummeted to 8.365 percent as $877 million chased after the $400 million available.
Also on offer was a 30 day instrument to raise $400 million which provided an average rate of 6.797 percent as $534,303,700 chased after the $400 million that was available. The previous 30 day Treasury bill issued cleared at an average rate of 6.99 percent, in May this year.
