Big gains for ICTOP10 stocks

Movement in the Junior Market this past week just about wiped out all of 2023 losses and resulted in most ICITOP10 stocks rising, with four recording double digit gains as the Junior Market consolidates around the 3,900 points level before breaking into the 4,000 points level. The Main Market enjoyed five out of 6 days of gains since the previous Friday and delivered four stocks with double digit gains.
Gains for the Junior Market this week occurred even as the price of Stationery and Office Supplies dropped $4.52 from $28 to $23.48 on Friday and former Caribbean Assurance Brokers ICTOP10 stock that fell out of the top tier the prior week pulled back in price to close at $3.30 from $4 as sellers offered stocks for sale below $4, with still more selling at the close of the week. History points to many investors buying into stocks after the split takes effect, usually at far higher prices than if they bought before, as such, it would not be surprising that investors will push the stock to a record valuation post-split. Accordingly, the stock now selling at a PE of 12.4 times current year’s earnings is a compelling buy at Friday’s price of $23.48.
The Junior Market ended the week with eight stocks rising and one declining, with Iron Rock Insurance the top stock, with a gain of 30 percent, followed by iCreate, up 21 percent to $1.10, and Caribbean Cream, up 18% to $4.70, but the company will be benefitting from lower input cost of some raw material, especially the price of milk solids that have fallen sharply by about 33 percent from peak prices last year March, Consolidated Bakeries popped 15% to end the week at $2.51, with very few stock offered for sale in the market at the close. The gains in Consolidated Bakeries propelled it out of the TOP10 and replaced by Edufocal, while OneonOne seems to be coming into its own with a rise of 9 percent to $1.22. In comparison, Dolphin Cove rose 6 percent to $16.90 but seems to have a seller with an undisclosed amount at that price. Dolla Financial is the only loser, with a decline of 4 percent to $2.25.
The Main Market had Caribbean Producers (CPJ) rising 15 percent to $10.95, JMMB Group climbing 14 percent to $33, with Berger Paints and Transjamaican gaining 11 percent each to close at $8.11 and a record close of $2.48, respectively. Guardian Holdings was the only declining stock, falling 7 percent to $420.
It is worth noting that Transjamaican US dollar denominated stock traded at 1.93 cents or almost $3 per share on Friday, putting well ahead of the local based issue at $2.48. The gap will close sooner or later, the question will the Jamaican dollar based stock move up to the $3 level or the US based one fall back to match the Jamaican dollar one. There is minimal selling in the US dollar market and much more in the Jamaican market.
CPJ sits at the number 10 position in the Main Market TOP 10, but it has a June year end, with the changeover to earnings per share for the 2023/4 fiscal year of $2.50 by August that will change the outlook for the price markedly above the current level, with the PE ratio at just 4.4.
At the end of the week, the average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 6.3, well below the market average of 13.7. The Main Market TOP10 is projected to have an average of 242 percent, to May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings.
The 15 most highly valued Main Market stocks are priced at a PE of 15 to 110, with an average of 29 and 20 excluding the highest PE stocks, 24 for the top half and 19 excluding the stocks with the highest PEs.
The Junior Market Top 10 PE sits at 5.8 compared with the market at 11.7. There are 11 stocks representing 23 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 44, averaging 21, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 17, possibly the lowest fair value for Junior Market stocks currently. Junior Market is projected to rise by 245 percent to May 2024.
The divergence between the average PE ratio of the Main and Junior Markets and the overall market valuation are important indicators of the likely gains for ICTOP10 stocks.
In the market generally, Investors continue to nibble away at a number of stocks and, in the process, gradually reduce the supply of several stocks that are attractively priced as the market moves toward the summer months, the start of the stock market year.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners. Accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market but not always. ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2024 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

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