Archives for September 2018

NCB Financial remains on high alert

The Jamaican stock market, scaled new heights last week, helped by NCB Financial hitting a record high of $115, as supply of the stock being sold remains limited.
More buying came in for the stock on Friday and investors should be on the watch again as the price could go higher during the current week.
Grace Kennedy is another of the main market stocks to keep an eye on, as it slowly tries to move higher. Caribbean Cement moved back to $50, on Friday and could go further in this week as increased demand came in for the stock. It clearly one to watch but investors will need to determine if Friday’s move is a part of the usual month end window dressing. Kingston Wharves closed at $61.80 but traded as high as $65, supply remains low, thus favouring further price gains, even as the stock is carries by far the highest PE in the market. Watch for Scotia Group that should be releasing third quarter results, this week Thursday and Sygnus Credit Investments that posted full year results in line with expectations of US$1.4 million.
In the Junior market, Indies continue with strong demand existing for the stock, with news of potential acquisition and new products, the stock is worth watching for more gains. General Accident could move higher as more demand comes in for it with limited selling.
Caribbean Flavours seems to be following its parent, Derrimon Trading, continuing to rise with limited volume on sale currently. Medical Disposables, declined during the previous week, recovered last week and .should be moving higher going forward, continue to watch this one, as well as Derrimon Trading that has contracted to distribute products of a Trinidad producer.

Kingston Wharves jumped to close at $60 on Tuesday.

Stocks with scarce supplies that could spring surprises include Barita Investments, Grace Kennedy, NCB Financial, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Salada Foods, Seprod and Scotia Group. The main market is not the only segment with limited supplies. The Junior Market supplies continue to be limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, General Accident, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables, Stationery and Office Supplies and tTech.
An overall view of stocks indicates that the main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below. The Junior Market now at a 15 months’ high, is being steered by an upward rising long-term support line and a golden cross. The golden cross is a very strong bullish long-term signal.

Under 1,000 investors bought Stanley Motta

Stanley Motta shares were recently listed on the Main Market Jamaica Stock Exchange in late August after a successful initial public offering (IPO), which raised $4 billion for the Musson Jamaica, the sellers of the shares.
Investors were given the opportunity to be a part property rental business located at 58 Half-Way-Tree Road next door to New Kingston, the country’s premier business centre. The IPO which opened July 6 and closed on July 20, attracted just under 1,000 investors and is one of the issues since 2018 with the lowest number of investors who bought into the issue. That is not surprising as the issue was geared to long term investors. Since listing the stock that was sold at $5.31 has fallen in price and last traded at $4.60 but could well increase significantly, as it now boast a PE ratio of just 10 at the latest price.
58 Half Way Tree Road, boasts five buildings with more than 230,000 square feet of office space for BPOs and other technology-based companies.

Access, Fosrich, JMMB now in IC TOP 10

Both the Jamaica Stock Exchange, main and Junior markets reached higher levels during the past week, with the main market hitting a series of new record highs. The coming weeks should see more gains as investors seek out opportunities as fixed interest returns have tanked.
The Top 10 has 3 changes, with Medical Disposables and Caribbean Producers moving out and making space for Access Financial and Fosrich Group in the Junior Market and JMMB Group coming in for is Berger Paints, with the latter jumping to $21.50 by the end of the week from $18 the week before.
Access Financial produced decent June quarter results with profit rising 16 percent to $217 million from $188 million for the 2017 quarter. The company is in the process of another acquisition, this time overseas, this should continue to help boost profit going forward. Fosrich posted good second quarter results and is on target to reach IC Insider.com’s forecasted earnings of 30 cents per share. Fosrich too, could be making an acquisition later this year, or early 2019, unofficial, but credible reports suggest. JMMB Group posted good first quarter results with a 59 percent increase in net profit. Some of the strong gains came from the relatively sharp fall in the value of the Jamaican dollar in the period that is not expected to continue.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks average 8.5 up marginally from 8.4 last week, as the market continues to revalue the multiple higher. The latest valuation compares to an average PE for the overall market of 13, based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE is now 8.5 and is up from 8, last week, for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13.7, a clear indication of the level of potential gains that can be made by owning these stocks. Work done by IC Insider.com suggests that the PE ratio is likely to end 2018 around 16 to 18 times earnings, as investors continue to upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the next several months from current levels. The latest government bond offer with a 4.58 years tenor, was heavily oversubscribed, resulting in rates dropping to 3.95 percent, suggesting that investors are satisfied that the economic policies will continue to lead to low inflation for a considerable time. These rates suggest more funds will be going into stocks as liquidity remains high in the financial system.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 35 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 38 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Blow by blow recount of All Jamaica record run

Add your HTML code here...

The Jamaica Stock Exchange climbed nearly 9,000 points at midday with the All Jamaican Composite Index surging 8,829.47 points to a record 363,496.38.
The market recorded at least 8 record highs during the day with the market rising 5,029.92 points at 9.59 am in morning session from the close on Thursday as NCB Financial climbed to a record $115.
The JSE Index surged 8,044.65 points to a record 331,186.28 but closed the last day of August at 329,428.09 up a strong 6,286.47 points.
Later on the market pulled back but still ended at a record close of 361,566.65 points to be up 12.5 percent for the year so far.
NCB Financial rise to a record $115 from a close of $113 on Thursday, was a major contributor to the big move on the index, but Caribbean Cement climbed to $50 from $46.50 on Thursday, Sagicor Group rose from $38.05 to $39.75 while Kingston Wharves jumped from $63 to a record $65 and helped push sharply higher beyond the 363,000 mark.
Towards the close PanJam Investment rose to $55 but NCB Financial pulled back at the close at $112 and Kingston Wharves closed at $61.80 and Wisynco Group rose to close at $9.49.

Rising stock prices dragging PEs higher

The bulls have taken control of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, driving the main market to several new record highs during the past week with All Jamaica Index hitting more than 352,000 points last week Friday and jumping more than 6,000 points on Tuesday morning this week to more than 356,400 points and hitting a high of 363,496.
At the same time, the Junior Market now trades at a 15 months’ high. The bullishness has also raised the PE ratio of the market higher since the start of July. The average PE for the overall Junior Market is now 13, based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE, is now an average of 13.7. At the start of July, the PE ratios, were at 11 for the Junior Market and 13 for the main market. At the end of 2017, the average PEs were at 13.5 and 15 respectively, based on 2017 earnings.
The PE is the most used tool in valuing stocks. in order to compare the value of one stock versus another, as such paying attention to this most important measure is critical to success in the stock market. PE ratios are not static and will change as profit and interest rates change. Profit will drive a stock to an expected or accepted PE but interest rates will change PE depending on whether rates and rising or falling. For several years Jamaican became used to a PE of 10 being the norm. That was when interest rates were in the teens now that rates are down sharply from that level PE will rise but its taken quite some time for that to happen. Investors are slowly recognizing that to participate in a growing economy and rising profits that they have to pay more to buy the shares of the listed companies.
The attached chart suggests that the average PE ratio is likely to end 2018 around 16 TO 17 times earnings, as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the coming months, from current levels.
Treasury bill rates now under 2 percent and government 4 years bods clearing at 3.95 percent and with a chronic shortage of many of the stocks, continuing to put upward pressure on prices, the PE ratios will move higher, investors should be taking their cue from this development.
The movement of the markets PE to the range mentioned above would translate to and increase around 25 percent rise in the market for the rest of the year and would result in full year gains of 40 to 50 percent in main and Junior markets for the year.