Tropical drops ICTOP10 with 32% rise

Last week Tropical Battery surged right to the top of the ICTOP10 Junior Market listing with the company seems poised to earn $280 million for the current year, with earnings per share of 22 cents. Investors who pounced on the stock immediately after the release of the first quarter results before the price pulled, drive the price up in the holiday shortened week to close with a 32 percent gain at $2.30.
In a week when the Junior Market came back to life to close at a new record high on Friday, following a new record on Thursday, the market index closed on Friday over the 4,100 mark for the first time and ended at 4,168.16, with a 21.6 percent gain for the year to date. At the same time, the Main Market continues to consolidate around the 440,000 points level, on the All Jamaica Composite Index.
The EduFocal initial public offer to raise $130 million at $1 per share, opened and closed on Thursday morning, ICInsider.com was informed that preliminary data suggests that the offer attracted around twice the amount on offer, resulting in the early closure. Elsewhere, the Jamaica Stock Exchange is enjoying robust business in 2022 over 2021, which should deliver a big bump in revenues and profit for 2022 should the trend holds, accordingly, ICInsider.com now puts 2022 earnings for the first quarter above the 2021 full year’s earnings of 71 cents, with a possible $3 per share for the full year. Watch this one.
In TOP10 developments this week, returning to the Junior Market are Cargo Handlers with the price holding at $8.99 and Medical Disposables after the price slipped from $7.27 to $6.60 this week. Dropping out of the TOP10 this week are Caribbean Assurance Brokers with the price falling 23 percent to $2.50 as investors dumped the shares after the company reported a 47 percent increase in profit to 21 cents per share, but vastly down on the 33 cents per share reported in the nine months to September. The Main Market had three changes, with Caribbean Producers and Carreras returning to the Top10 to be joined for the first time by Transjamaican Highway and out goes Berger Paints, Jamaica Broilers and Sagicor Group.
During the week, the Junior Market TOP10 listed AMG Packaging fell 8 percent to $3.14 and in the Main Market, Proven Investments rose 9 percent followed by Berger Paints 6 percent and a 4 percent fall for Jamaica Broilers, but Guardian Holdings and Sagicor Group fell 5 percent
The Junior Market potential gains for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 113 percent to 105 percent much lower than the Main Market at 124 percent. The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Elite Diagnostic followed by AMG Packaging and Lasco Distributors to gain between 121 and 126 percent, compared to 120 and 153 percent, previously.
The potential gains for Main Market stocks moved from 125 percent last week to this weeks’ 124 percent, with the top three being Guardian Holdings followed by JMMB Group and Sygnus Credit Investments all projected to gain between 161 and 193 percent versus 161 and 180 percent last week.
The average PE for Junior Market has surpassed the average of 17 times 2020 earnings achieved at the end of March last year in moving to 19.2 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is ahead of the JSE Main Market at 16.1. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 9.8, with a 49 percent discount to that market’s average.
All the stocks in the Junior Market can gain just 4 percent to the end of March this year, based on an average PE of 20. About a third of Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, averaging around 23.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 16.1 just 18 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 24 percent below the target of 20 to the end of March this year. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 9.2 representing a 43 percent discount to the market, well below the potential of 20. Around 15 stocks or a thirty percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average roundabout 25, suggesting that the accepted multiple is between 20 and 25 times the current year’s earnings. The depressed PE of the main market may be indicating that bigger investors are reluctant to be aggressive in buying into the market currently with inflation, rising interest rates and war populating the headlines.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.