T&T: Monthly inflation slows

CENTRAL BANK HOLDS REPO RATE AT 2.75%

Headline Inflation slowed a month-on-month basis for two consecutive months to 0.2 per cent increase in March compared with an increase of 0.3 per cent in February. Food inflation, the main driver of headline inflation, rose to 12.9 per cent in March 2013, up from 10.6 per cent in February. This was mainly attributed to faster price increases for vegetables (24.2 per cent compared with 17.8 per cent in February 2013), fish (5.7 per cent compared with 4.8 per cent in February 2013) and food products not elsewhere classified (40.1 per cent compared with 31.9 per cent in February 2013). Slower price increases were recorded for meat (6.0 per cent compared with 6.9 per cent in February 2013) and oils and fats (0.8 per cent compared with 1.6 per cent in February 2013). In contrast, prices declined for milk, cheese and eggs (-1.5 per cent), fruits (-2.7 per cent) and sugar, jam and confectionery (-3.0 per cent). The lower month over month inflation rate would have given the Central Bank some comfort in keeping the repo rates at the current levels for some time longer even as liquidity increased in the system

The latest data on retail prices released by the Central Statistical Office indicate that there was a slight increase in the rate of inflation for the twelve month period. Headline inflation, measured by the twelve-month increase in the Index of Retail Prices, rose to 6.9 per cent in March 2013 from 5.9 per cent in the previous month.

Core inflation | Core Inflation which excludes the influence of food prices, remained relatively unchanged, inching up to 2.2 per cent in March from 2.1 per cent recorded in February. There was an uptick in the price increase for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.1 per cent compared with 2.0 per cent in February) while prices decelerated for health (6.0 per cent compared with 6.1 per cent in February). Growth in private sector credit remained relatively slow in February 2013. On a year-on-year basis, credit granted by the consolidated system to the private sector increased by 2.1 per cent from 1.9 per cent in the previous month. Among the major loan categories, lending for real estate mortgages rose at a robust rate of 13.4 per cent compared with 11.6 per cent in January, while the pace of growth in consumer lending slowed, to 2.9 per cent compared with 3.2 per cent in January 2013. However, business lending declined on a year-on-year basis for the third consecutive month, by 2.1 per cent in February 2013.

Liquidity | Liquidity levels in the financial system, though still high, retreated in the first three weeks of April 2013. Commercial banks’ excess reserve balances held at the Central Bank fell to a daily average of $5,236 million in April 1-23 compared with a daily average of $6,043 million in March. Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange market via sales of US$60 million to authorised dealers helped to remove $383 million in excess liquidity from the system. Commercial banks remained adequately liquid and therefore did not require funds from the inter-bank market or the repo window. The Central Bank plans to undertake additional measures in the coming months to withdraw excess system liquidity.

Interest rates | Short term interest rates declined further in April 2013. The interest rate on 91-day treasury bills fell to 0.15 per cent in April 2013 from 0.18 per cent in March 2013 and the 182-day treasury bill rate declined to 0.36 per cent in March 2013 from 0.46 per cent in January. With rates in US comparative markets also declining, the differential between TT and US three-month t-bills remained unchanged at 0.10 per cent in April 2013. While economic activity is expected to pick up gradually over the course of 2013, the recovery is likely to be subdued. Continued stability in core inflation suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain well contained. In these circumstances, the Central Bank views the present accommodative monetary stance as appropriate and has decided to maintain the ‘Repo’ rate at 2.75 per cent. The Bank will continue to keep economic and monetary conditions under close review in the coming months.

Daily Trading 3 May, 2013

JSE | Prices up for 15 stocks 

Stocks prices were on the up in today’s trading as advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones 3 to 1 and 15 stocks recorded gains ranging from a high of 30 cents to a low of 1 cent. Only 5 stocks declined between 40 cents to 1 cent. There was trading in 26 stocks overall. In spite of advancing stocks being dominant, the main market indices actually fell moderately with just the junior market and the combined indices moving up. The decline in the indices is based on the average prices the stock exchange uses in its computation. The changes reported here are based on the last selling prices of each stock.

Moved up | AMG Packaging moved up to $4.10 gaining $0.29, Barita gained 23 cents to close at 3.20, Blue Power moved up to $5.80 on a 30 cent move. National Commercial Bank gained 25 cents, and closed at $18.35, Paramount gained 20 cents to close at $3.20. Scotia group climbed 30 cents closing at $21.30.

Carreras slipped 40 cents to close at $55.40 and D&G 19 cents in closing at $4.11.

A total of 2,251,800 shares traded of which Cable & Wireless accounted for 1,196,164 units at a mere value of $7,396,967. Grace traded 50,375 units valued $2.77 million, Jamaican Teas traded 352,084 units valued at $1.4 million, Sagicor Life traded 74,470 units, valued at $566,676, Desnoes & Geddes traded 112,193 units valued at $461,113.

TTSEMay3+Grace is one of the eight stocks to close trading with a bid that is higher than the last selling price. It also closed the same way on the Trinidad market today and so has Carreras with a $56 bid versus the last sale at $55.60. Others with bids above the last sale price are Ciboney, Jamaica Producers, Lasco Distributors, Mayberry, Pan Jamaican, Scotia Investments.

TTSE | Slow market in T&T

In another day of slow trading on the Trinidad market, 6 securities traded. Two stocks advanced, 1 declined and 3 traded firm.

Sagicor Financial Corporation, the Barbados based company, accounted for the bulk of 165,679 shares traded in the market with a value of TT$1,715,841.10. The company traded 121,877 shares, valued at TT$841,051.30 and lost $0.09 to end the day at $6.90. Trinidad Cement traded a volume of 15,000 shares valued at TT$14,250. One Caribbean Media accounted for 15,000 shares with a value of TT$249,000, while Guardian Media saw 10,000 shares changing hands at a value of TT$197,500.

Clico Investment Fund enjoyed the day’s largest gain, increasing $0.12 to end the day at $21.12. Clico Investment Fund was the only active Mutual Fund, posting a volume of 299,358 shares valued at TT$6,322,506.10 as the price  advanced by $0.12 to end at $21.12.

The following stocks had bids that were higher than the last selling price. Ansa Merchant Bank, Berger, Grace Kennedy, Scotia Investments.

TTSEMay3+Real

ForEx Market | J$ continues appreciation

It took slightly less Jamaican dollars to buy a US dollar than it did yesterday, as the average selling price ended at J$99.26 in today’s trading. The appreciation comes against the back drop of the announced IMF agreement that was approved by the fund yesterday.

ForExSummaryMay3In yesterday’s trading, there were more selling of the currency than purchased by US$7.3 million. Today there was a US$6 million surplus of purchases over sales as purchases came in at US32.8 million while sales amounted to US$26.5 million. It also means that for the week-to-date, inflows into the market is almost equal with outflows. Last week the inflows and outflows were evenly matched.

The highest rates paid for US dollars in the market decreased somewhat according to the BOJ data. The highest buying rate fell to $99.40 and the highest selling was down to $104.22. The lowest selling rate was $82.66 and lowest buying $81.33.

ForExDEtailsMay3

Daily Trading 2 May 2013

JSE | Proven dominates

In a slow and uneventful day on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, Proven 8 percent preference shares almost dominated trading with 995,382 units trading at a value of $5 million, but that was not to be, as the ordinary shares did even better with 510,650 units switching hands at 11 US cents each with a value of US$56,171.50. Grace Kennedy, with $1.44 million coming from 26,858 shares, was the next most traded stock followed by Scotia Group with 28127 shares valued at $591,087, investors spent $524,777 on National Commercial Bank’s 28,933 units and Kingston Wharves traded 82,298 units valued at $493,788. NCB traded between $18.10 and $18.50 while it last traded at $18.10, Sagicor Life between $7.60 and $8 and closed at $7.60, Scotia Group closed at $21, but traded between $21 and $21.30, while Lasco Manufacturing traded between $10.50 and $10.70 at which it last traded.

JSEINdicesMay2Carreras gained 97 cents to close at $56 to be the largest price mover on the day. Desnoes & Geddes traded up 24 cents to close at $4.30 on 10,000 shares, Lasco Manufacturing closed at $10.70, slipped by 35 cents. Other prices changes were moderate. 7 stocks gained while 5 declined to maintain the positive advance to decline ratio for the week to date.

A stand-off between buyers and sellers continued on the local stock exchange today, as the market slowly claws its way back from this year’s low, reached when the government announced new budgetary measures to increase revenues and reduce interest cost. In the process, the all Jamaican composite index gained 465.66 points at the end of trading to end up at 82,489.34, the JSE index closed up 264.51 points at 83,813.92. The junior market slipped nearly 4 points to close at 623.90 on a day of slow trading when 856,224 ordinary shares valued at $9,104,725.61 traded. In addition there were 1.02 million preference shares trading valued at $51.47 million. This is a slight increase over Wednesday when 725,220 traded at $5.09.

Eight stocks closed the day with bids above last selling price. This is down from 9 on Wednesday.

TTSE | Higher prices on cards for T&T stocks

At the end of today’s trading, 7 stocks in the main market have no offers, while there are 5 stocks that have bids above the last selling price, indications that higher prices are ahead for this market where trading has been slow but with tight supplies.

Trading activity on the main market of the Trinidad & Tobago stock exchange was very low, with only 165,916 shares crossing the floor of the Exchange with a value of $4,549,069.45. Only 8 securities traded with Angostura Holdings increasing by climbing $0.39 to end the day at $9.50, 3 declined moderately and 4 traded firm. Neal & Massy Holdings was the volume leader with 70,650 shares for a value of $4,168,350, followed by Trinidad Cement with a volume of 55,000 shares traded for $52,250. First Caribbean International Bank contributed 29,381 shares with a value of $235,048, while Sagicor Financial Corporation traded 9,130 shares valued at $63,842.45.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 131,400 shares valued at $2,759,667.40 while declining by $0.01 to end at $21.00.

TTSEMay2

Republic Bank undervalued (TTSE)

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Republic Bank out of Trinidad is reporting slightly lower profit for the six months to March this year compared with 2012. According to data released by the bank today profits before tax came in at TT$336.954 million or 6 percent less than the $358.97 in 2011 for the same quarter. According to the chairman, $49 million was an adjustment for the defaulted Grenada bond. On a quarter over quarter basis the December quarter was better than the March quarter by 16 percent while in 2012 the March was worse by 7 percent. For the six months to March, profits were flat with just a slight negative slant as the 4 percent improvement generated in December 2012 was wiped out by the reduced earnings in the March quarter.

After tax profits attributable to shareholders was slight better that the pretax performance as the March quarter slipped by 4 percent to TT$267.468 million, while the year to date earnings are just slightly up. Earnings per share for the six months is TT$7.27. Republic trades at just $108.90 or at a PE of just over 7 times this year’s earnings while Scotia Bank is selling at more than 20 times earnings. Republic has traded around 20 times earnings in the past and has much room to grow. What is apparently holding back the stock must be the fact that a large block of the shares is in the hands of the government and could be divested in the near term.

Loan and advances at March came in at TT$24.7 billion, investments was TT$7.7 billion and customer deposit and funding instruments amounted to TT$43.4 billion and total equity was TT$79.4 billion. The bank seems well capitalized, however, its operations reaches out into the wider southern Caribbean and some of those economies face difficult times.

RBTTGlance

Daily Trading 1 May 2013

JSE | Highest since February

The stock market reached its highest level since February 11 when measured by the all Jamaica composite index as it crossed over the 82,000 level. In the case of the main market index, Wednesday’s level was the highest since mid-March. But on one of the more lackluster days, there was a mere $9,166,322 expended in trading, as advancing stocks just outnumbered declining ones by 8 to 7.

JSEINdicesMay1

Stock gaining | Stocks with any noticeable movements were, Berger Paints up 31 cents, to close at $2.26, a day after the company announced that the CEO Warren McDonald would be retiring shortly. Investors snapped up 33,112 of the company’s shares between $1.97 and $2.26. Carreras inched up 83 cents, to close at $55.03 with 17,078 units trading. Lasco Manufacturing climbed 90 cents to $11.05 with a mere 1,700 units trdingand Lasco Financial moved to a new 52 weeks high at $7.60 on moderate volume, Supreme Ventures gained back 10 cents it lost on Tuesday, to close at $2.60 with just 19,000 shares trading. General Accident gained 4 percent to close at $1.70 on the 184,887 shares that traded, between $1.65 and $1.70.

Stocks Losses | Consolidated Bakery, bakers of Purity and Miss Birdie brand of baked products, fell 40 cents to $1.20 with only 300 units sold, as interest in the stock fell away when the company released final year 2102 results that showed a sharp drop in profits, compared with 2011. The company had reported $3.7 million after tax profit compared to $12.8 million in 2011, before gain from disposal of shares. The stock looks set to fall some more unless the first quarter results, which are due in another two weeks, come out early and show positive growth in earnings that could change investor sentiment to the stock.

Stocks in demand | While levels of stocks trading on Wednesday was low, there were 9 companies stocks that had bids higher than their last selling prices, a bullish indicator. These companies include Blue Power, Desnoes & Geddes, Mayberry, Lasco Distributors, Sagicor Investments, Jamaica Producers, Pan Jamaican, Scotia Investments and KLE Group, a company that provides entertainment and restaurants services, that fell to $2.75 at the last traded price, well below the IPO price of $3.70.

TTSE | Witco Jumps to TT$100

West Indian Tobacco Company hit a record TT$100 in today’s trading on the TT Stock Exchange with the largest gain on the market as it increased $2.93 to end the day’s trading. At the end of 2012 the stock traded at $85. Scotia Bank gained 21 cents to land at $69.24 and is up from the December 2012 close of $65.51 while Sagicor Financial gained 14 cents and closed at $7. All three traded below 750 shares each.

A total of 400,834 shares crossed the floor of the Exchange with a value of $3,204,224.37 as 12 securities traded during the day with 6 advancing, 2 declining and 4 trading firm.

TTSEMay1

Angostura Holdings traded 233,615 shares to be the market leader, the value of the shares traded was $2,128,611.97 but the stock fell 39 cents to close $9.11, this was followed by Trinidad Cement with a volume of 137,331 shares valued $137,331.00. National Enterprises contributed 12,576 shares with a value of $196,185.60, while Republic Bank added 6,144 shares valued at $669,081.60.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 45,170 shares valued at $948,930.93 and advanced by $0.01 to end at $21.01. Fortress Caribbean Property Fund which last traded at $5.00 did not trade as did Praetorian Property Mutual Fund that last traded at $3.40. There was no activity in the Second Tier Market.

ForEx | J$ revaluation continues

ForExSummaryMay1The rate of exchange between the US and Jamaican dollars continued to inch down, even as the amount of US dollars sold in the system in the last two days exceed the amount purchased by authorized dealers. The average selling rate, fell to J$99.3286 from $99.3481 on Tuesday and $99.36 on Monday. Both the amount of funds purchased US$29.3 million by the dealers and that sold, US$36.6 fell on Wednesday by US$16 million on the buying side and US$18 million on sell side, compared to Tuesday’s trade. The rate of exchange has appreciated from a low of J$99.81 on April 12th.

Interestingly, the currency was sold between $104.27 to a low of $81.49 while the highest price paid for purchase was $99.70. On Tuesday sale took place between $104.27 to a low of $96.4 while the highest price paid for purchase was $99.50 to a low of $81.37.

Too early to say | While the Jamaican dollar has been slowly appreciating since last week, it is too early to say where it will end in the short term. The government announced on Wednesday that the IMF agreement was signed off by the IMF board and will release almost US$200 million for the central bank’s reserves. The amount is not large, but there are more flows that will be coming in during the year that could result in further appreciation of the local currency. Persons who bought FX for investment purposes could well be offloading some into the market if the daily rate shows signs of the currency appreciating for a number of days to come.

ForExDEtailsMay1

Treasury Bills | TBill rates climbed in April

BankofJamaicaBOJIn March, the average yield for the 90 days was 5.82488 percent but bids up to 6.24999% were successful as only $338.7 billion chased after the $400 million on offer. In April, things changed a lot with the average yield climbing nearly 86 basis points to average out at 6.68297 percent. This took place against the background of a 41 percent oversubscription coming against the fall in rates in March when there were less bids for the amount on offer. Allotment was made for successful bids between a low of 5.15 percent and a high of 7.1 percent per annum.

The six issues fared better as average yield climbed a bit moving up to 6.389 percent compared to what the six months bill yielded in March when the yield came out at an average of 6.22345 percent per annum. But while in March the range was 5.50% to 6.65310, only $196 million went after the $400 million on offer, The April auction had 708 million seeking to capture some of the $400 million offer but bidders were successful in garnering between 5.4 percent and 6.65 percent for this instrument. In March, a 30 day treasury bill was oversubscribed by $58 million with yields between 4.5 percent & 6.1 percent.

Daily Trading 30 April 2013

JSE | Lasco Companies dominate Tuesday’s trade

The Jamaican stock market index climbed today with the JSE market index closing up 436.63 points to end trading at 83,476.38. The all Jamaica composited closed at 81,895.10 up 768.89 points and JSE combined gained 379.09 points closing the day at 84,917.24. The junior market index slipped 8.47 points dragging the overall junior market down to 617.18.  The overall market traded 7,166,418 units valued at $65,136,584.80.

Winners | Price movements were a little more pronounced that in recent trading sessions with JMMB jumping $0.86 to close at $8 as the stock traded 48,510 units, at close the bid was not strong at $7.10. Scotia Group recovered from yesterdays fall in putting on 50 cents to close at $21. Grace Kennedy having gained new life with Grace’s announcement to buy shares in the market rose yet again to close at $55.02 up 47 cents for the day on top of the gain on Monday.

Losers | Seprod shed 44 cents with a mere 769 units trading to close at $14.56, Supreme Ventures shed another 9 cents today to land it at $2.50 having traded at $2.75 on Friday last. Sagicor Life fell by 49 cents to close at $7.70 with 35,261 units trading on the day.

 JSEINdicesApr30

Kingston Wharves traded at $6 gaining 10 cents during the day, a twelve months high. The shares are tightly held and there is clearly upward pressure on the price, which seems likely to go higher. Barita lost 28 cents to close at $2.97 with 5,000 shares changing hands.

Junior market | Lasco Distributors with 1,597,000 shares trading at a value of $15.3 million changed hands today between $9.55 and $10.01 the stock closed down 41 cents at $9.59 and Lasco Manufacturing traded 4,512,900 units valued at $46.6 million between $10.10 and $11.05 closing the day at $10.15 own

The Lasco Manufacturing block was sold by Stocks & Securities with Mayberry picking up 1,009,100 units, NCB capita markets buying 3.167 million units, JMMB taking 146,833 units and 141,000 being crossed by Stocks & Securities. Stocks & Securities was the major seller of Lasco Distributors and NCB Capital markets the main buyer.

Bids above last sales | The following stocks had bids above their closing prices: this is usually an indication that prices will rise. These include Berger Paints, Carreras, Desnoes & Geddes, Ciboney, Jamaica Producers, Mayberry, Sagicor Investments and Scotia Investments.

TTSE | Cement continues domination

Cement continues domination on the TTSE when the Cement Group traded 967,380 shares with a value of TT$967,380.

Market activity saw trading in 14 securities of which 8 advanced, 2 declined and 4 traded firm while the total volume of shares traded was 1,028,095 valued at TT$2,075,106.23.

TTSEApr30

Trinidad Cement was followed by Angostura Holdings with a volume of 26,000 shares, valued at TT$247,000. National Enterprises Limited contributed 24,718 shares with a value of TT$385,506.58, while Republic Bank contributed 3,121 shares to the total, valued at TT$339,898.61.

Angostura Holdings was the day’s largest gainer, increasing $0.50 to end the day at $9.50 while Ansa Merchant Bank,  suffered the day’s greatest loss, falling $1.50 to close at $38.50.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 145,943 shares valued at $3,064,985.90. Clico Investment Fund declined by $0.19 to end at $21.00. FORTRESS CARIBBEAN PROPERTY FUND remained at $5.00. Praetorian Property Mutual Fund remained at $3.40.

The Second Tier Market did not witness any activity. Fncu Venture Capital Company (Suspended) remained at $1.00. Mora Ven Holdings remained at $14.97.

ForEx Trading | Summary

ForExSummaryApr30

Foreign exchange trading jumped today as Central Bank data shows US$45.3 million US dollars being bought by authorized dealers while they sold nearly $55 million. The average selling rate was J$99.348 almost the same as on Monday when the rate was J$99.36. Last week Tuesday buying was under $40 million while sales were just above it. On Monday, trading amounted to the equivalent of US$42.6 million of purchases, while US$34.75million was sold.

ForExDEtailsApr30

 

Trinidad Cement dominates T&TSE

Trading Summary  29 Apr 2013 | Eleven securities traded of which 3 advanced, 2 declined and closed at the same price they traded on Friday.

TTSEApr29In another slow and uneventful day of trading on the Trinidad Stock exchange, the market was dominated by Trinidad Cement Limited, the volume leader with 1,147,809 shares changing hands for a value of TT$1,147,809 in overall trading of 1,255,128 shares valued at TT$2,639,620.86 in the main market. Cement was followed by the Barbados controlled Sagicor Financial Corporation with 69,519 shares being traded for $477,200.49 with a price gain of $0.36 to close at $6.86. The Jamaican investment banking group, Jamaica Money Market Brokers Limited contributed 12,900 shares with a value of $5,676 while shedding 1 cent to close at $0.44 or J$6.90, while Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago Limited accounted for 7,773 shares valued at $536,580.43.

Clico Investment Mutual Fund Market traded 10 shares valued at $211.90 while dropping $0.01 to end at $21.19.

The market seems to have support at current levels, with a large portion of stocks either having bids on or around their last selling price at the close of trading, while 6 stocks had bids above their last selling prices. Stocks with buying interest above the last sale prices are, Agostini, Angostura Holdings, Grace Kennedy, National Flour Mills, Scotia Investments, and West Indian Tobacco with a bid of TT$97.05 which last traded at TT$97.01with no stock on offer at the market close.

This market seems poised to slowly move higher during the year.

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