TTSE: Trading picks up on Monday’s

Tuesday, 30th July 2013 | Activity picked up over the low level of Monday as trading took place in 10 securities of which 1 advanced, 6 declined and 3 traded firm. A volume of 456,515 shares crossed the floor of the Exchange valued at $9.59 million.

Jamaica Money Market Brokers traded 144,900 shares at a value of $65,205, Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago had 115,770 shares traded for $8,106,215 as the stock closed back to $70.02 loosing 98 cents at the end of trading. Grace Kennedy contributed 93,471 shares with a value of $317,801 and lost 9 cents, the worse in the market and in the process closed at $3.40, while National Commercial Bank added 30,000 shares valued at $35,400. Clico Investment Fund, posted a volume of 40,580 shares valued at $866,789

IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 4 stocks were higher than their last selling price, there were no stocks having offers that were lower.

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Unilever Q2 profits up

Investors who owned Unilever stock from 2010 would have been very happy as the stock price has benefited from the impact of lower interest rates and some profit growth resulting in the stock price more than tripling.

But profits have lagged the stock price performance. For example, for the 3 months to June this year, profits are up to $14.4 million after tax, compared to $12.6 million in 2012 an increase of 14 percent increase. For the 6 months, profit is higher by 13.6 percent to $27.4 million, that is just a few points below the near 17 percent increase in stock price this year, the stock seems poised to increase in price even more than it has done so far. For the 3 months to March this year, profit was up to $13 million after tax, compared to $11.9 million in 2012. The June quarter represents a higher increase than that enjoyed in the first 3 months of the year.

Revenues up | Revenues which climbed to $133.6 million in the first quarter, grew to $147.3 million in the June quarter, up from $142.2 million for June 2012 quarter. For the 6 months, revenues are up from $269.7 million for the same period last year to $280.9 million this year, a mere 4 percent increase.

Stock price | Unilever’s 17 percent stock price growth this year so far is ahead of the gain in earnings and is on top of a 45 percent increase in 2012, 44 percent in 2011 and 35 percent in 2010 after a 16 percent fall in 2009. The stock seems poised to rise further as demand exceeds the supply of the stock on the Trinidad market. When stock prices rise much faster than the growth in profits, it is time to take serious note of what is happening. Investors in such stocks should be fully conversant with what are the factors at play to ensure their investment can be properly protected if, and when, the factors change.

Unilever products – Unilever Caribbean continues to trade at new highs virtually each time it trades.

The company | A subsidiary of Unilever PLC, a United Kingdom company, and based in Trinidad, the company manufactures a range of homecare, personal care and food products for the Caribbean region including Jamaica and has been having a reasonable profit performance for a number of years. In fact, they have been able to improve sales and margins in a market that has been in recession since 2009.

Some of the company’s brands include Mistolin, Radiante, Breeze, Vaseline, Lux, Lipton, Becel and Blue Band. The product range also includes dishwashing liquids as well as fabric conditioners.

Big quarter | The December quarter is the biggest period for earnings with more than a third being generated in the period. For 2012 full year to December the company reported after tax profit of $59.5 million, an increase of 2.8 percent over that earned in 2011. Profit for 2011 was up 11 percent over 2010 and 2010 profit was up 26 percent over the previous year. Lower interest rates in Trinidad have helped to push the PE ratio to 21 times the IC Insider’s projected earnings of $1.58 per share for 2013.  Presently at a stock price of $55, this is up from 14 times in 2011 and 11.5 for 2010.

Improved margin | Unilever is not doing exceptionally well in a tight economy but it is clearly enjoying areas of success reflected in good growth in some of it products. Management earlier this year expressed concerns about rising input cost for some of the products it manufactures and competition from cheaper products. From all indications, management seems to have managed to be steering the operations well, resulting in improved margins and continued growth in profit. Gross margin climbed to 66.2 percent in the June quarter, up from 63.8 percent in the first quarter and up from 63.7 percent for the twelve months of 2012 and is a continuation of the marked improvement seen for 2012 over the 59.2 percent in 2011.

While cost increase seems to be under control for the first quarter in 2013 that was not the case in 2012 when selling cost rose by $17 million or 17 percent and administrative cost rose 22 percent, well above the growth in revenues.

In the latest quarter, sales & marketing cost is flat with 2012 but administrative cost climbed 38 percent to $10 million, a change to the flat numbers in the first quarter. While for the 6 months, sales & marketing cost is flat with 2012 but administrative cost is up 20 percent and is up faster than revenues are growing.

The company boast equity capital of $156 million, has no interest bearing debt and a high current asset ratio with liabilities almost covered twice over.

Related Posts | Unilever stock not supported by profits | TTSE: Unilever up, Clico down

TTSE: Slow trading but Republic hits $111

Monday, 29th July 2013 | On a day when Republic Bank closed at a last selling price of $111, up 99 cents and a new 52 weeks high with 5,140 shares trading valued at $565,590, only 5 stocks were active of which 3 advanced, 1 declined and 1 traded firm.  A total of 148,257 shares traded for a value of $3.4 million on the Trinidad market.

Trading activity on the main market accounted for 49,669 shares crossing the floor valued at $1,315,148.13. LJ Williams B shares traded 25,000 units for a value of $18,250 as the stock shed 11 cents to close at 73 cents, a new 52 weeks low. Neal & Massy Holdings with a volume of 11,577 shares accounted for $682,801. Sagicor Financial Corporation contributed 7,952 shares with a value of $48,507. Clico Investment Fund gained 6 cents to end the day at $21.36 while 98,588 shares valued at $2,105,454 changed hands.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 4 stocks were higher with 2 stocks having offers lower than their last selling price.

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Ready. Set. Go!

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Monday, 29th July 2013 | The earnings season has begun! Over the next few weeks, our IC Insider analysts will be busy scouring over company quarterly reports, crunching the numbers and calling it as we see it.

As in any race to perform, there will be winners and losers. The markets will be sure to respond and with the JSE and TTSE having a limited supply of some stocks, the bulls could be on the run.

Buy Rated Stock | Of the 5 company quarterly reports reviewed to date, 3 have been added to our Buy Rated list. National Commercial Bank, One Caribbean Media and Berger TT have interesting story lines that could improve your wealth health.

Better than a broker’s ‘buy’ recommendation, IC Insider has no vested interest in any stock transaction or conflict of interest. Our research is backed by published reports of the company’s performance and insights of future earnings that can be found at ICInsider.com. The final decision to buy, or not, is your personal choice.

Related posts | NCB recovers from NDX hit | OCM profits growth slows | Berger TT profit poised for big gain

To search for published reports for a Buy Rated stock on IC Insider, please use ‘Search IC Insider’ and enter the company name, in full or in part.

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Berger TT profit poised for big gain

The economies of Trinidad & Tobago and that of Jamaica are two contrasting ones. In the case of Trinidad, after a few years of decline the economy is growing again, albeit moderately. Jamaica on the other hand, is still experiencing decline. Interest rates, while sharply down in Jamaica at more than 6 percent, are nowhere near those of the Twin Island state with Treasury rates at less than 1 percent.

But a look at the results for Berger Paints in the two territories would make one wonder if the state of the economies aren’t the same. Both companies are struggling to maintain profitability as the construction sector suffered decline in both countries and are yet to be restored to health. In both countries, there are signs that things may be picking up. For example, Trinidad Cement reported improved sales in the first quarter this year over 2012. In the case of Berger Trinidad, there was a big improvement in the bottom line in the quarter to June with slight pickup in sales to $13.395 million versus $12.891 in 2012. Not much, but enough. This along with a cut in expenses to $13.52 million compared to $14 million, reduced the loss from $1.25 million before tax in 2012 to $185,000 this year and the after tax loss to $179,000 to June this year versus $973,000 in 2012. For the 12 months to March this year, on revenues of $64,146 million and expenses of $62,504 million, the paint company made a profit of $791,000 after tax.

According to figures released for the quarter to June, the company has eliminated some cost. This should made quite a difference to the full year results which IC Insider is forecasting to be 50 cents per share for the year to March 2014.

The price earnings ratio (PE) of the stock is low at just 7 times this year’s earnings, making it a good candidate for investors to profit from.

The financial position of the company is healthy, with working capital being more than two and a half times current assets to current liabilities. Equity capital stands at nearly $25 million with no major debt capital being used in funding its operations. There is virtually no cash on the balance sheet suggesting that they are using cheap bank financing to ensure shareholders max out on profits.

Insider call | Berger TT is an IC Insider Buy Rated stock.

T&T PE chart show bargains

The stock market in Trinidad is not very active partly due to prices of many of the stocks that are too high for that market creating lack of liquidity. The PE chart shows that there are a number of undervalued stocks that investors can made good money from. Top amongst them is Trinidad Cement with a PE of just two even after the price is up nearly 40 percent since July. For the rest of the manufacturing sector, Unilever is at 22, West Indian Tobacco is at 27 but national Flour is at 6 and Berger at 7.

In the financial sector, BNS is selling at a price earnings ratio of 23 while Guardian Holdings is at 8, Republic Bank is at 15 and National Enterprises at 16. Conglomerates Neal and Massy is at 11 compared to Ansa Mcal at 17. In media, Guardian Media is at 22 but One Caribbean is only at 13.

The graphs below highlights the potential gains for those that appear to be undervalued.

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TTSE: Unilever up, Clico down

Friday, 26th July 2013 | Overall market activity resulted from trading in 10 securities of which 2 advanced, 5 declined and 3 traded firm.

Trading activity on the First Tier Market registered a volume of 109,697 shares crossing the floor valued at $1,314,622.32. Sagicor Financial Corporation was the volume leader with 63,270 shares changing hands for a value of $385,947, followed by National Flour Mills with a volume of 30,000 shares being traded for $22,495. Unilever Caribbean contributed 9,789 shares with a value of $538,776, while Scotiabank Trinidad added 3,920 shares valued at $274,439.20.

Unilever Caribbean enjoyed the day’s largest gain, increasing $0.71 to end the day at $55.04.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 47,705 shares valued at $1,016,167.50 suffered the day’s greatest loss declining by $0.20 to end at $21.30.

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OCM profits growth slows

One Caribbean Media revenues climbed 21 percent in the June quarter and 32 percent year to date over 2012. Profit after tax was up 10 percent in the latest quarter and 23 percent for the six month period. The growth in the second quarter is down on that of the first quarter when management stated that acquisitions and revenues flows from a state election in Tobago and elections in Barbados helped to boost revenues and profit for the March quarter by 40.4 percent.

OCM better results came as profits for the 3 months climbed to TT$20.3 million, up from TT$ 18.3 million in 2012, emanating from revenues which were up to TT$131 million. For the six months, profit after tax is up to TT$38.4 million from TT$31 million in the prior year. Both revenue and profits grew over the amount generated in the first quarter of this year.

Management is, however, cautioning as they did in the first quarter report when they stated that the second quarter will be tougher than the first but expect growth to continue. They are again sending a message of caution that the second half of the year will be more challenging.

Results comparison | The June quarter profit is just a shade off from the amount earned in the December 2012 quarter of $21.4 million from revenues of $145.7 million, as well as the amount earned in September quarter last year of $21.8 million from revenues of $132.6 million.

OneCaribbeanMedia280x150For most media houses, the first quarter of the calendar year is not usually the best in either revenues or profit as advertisers take a more moderate position in the first quarter coming out of the high expenditure of advertising during the Christmas period.

Profit 2012 | For the 12 months to December last year, earnings came to $74.75 million slightly up on the $69.45 million generated in 2011 from revenues of $495 million versus $451 million for non-interest income, an increase of 9.7 percent. Gross profit rose by 14.6 percent to $178 million from $155 million in 2011, showing greater level of efficiency in generating income.

Gross profit margin was 36 percent for 2012 up from 34.4 percent in 2011 is now up to 36.5 percent for the year to June reflecting a big improvement over the 32.6 percent generated in the first six months of 2012.

Financial health | The company is in a healthy financial position, generating annual cash flows of more than $70 million per annum, some of which it is using to acquire other income generating assets. Cash inflows could rise in the current year as profit seems poised to climb above that of 2012. Equity stands at $609 million with no debt and current asset ratio of more than 3 to 1, and cash funds of $144 million at the end of March. Funds are clearly being built up for further acquisitions.

Forecast | IC Insider continues to forecast profits of $95 million or $1.41 per share for the current year giving the stock a PE of 12.75 times earnings. Based on the Trinidad stock market PE ratio and Guardian Media which is at PE of 22, the stock is rated a buy for medium term appreciation, as the stock price could almost double based on these comparisons.

Insider call | OCM is now an IC Insider Buy Rated stock.

Related posts | OCM profits rise strongly 

 

TTSE: TCL up again but market quiet

Thursday, 25th July 2013 | Trading picked up from yesterday’s low levels with 13 securities being active on a day when prices  advanced for 2 stocks, 6 stocks declined and 5 traded firm as a moderate 133,066 units traded for a value of $2.73 million.

Sagicor Financial Corporation traded 43,075 shares changed hands for a value of $263,603, Trinidad Cement stock price made another move in gaining 12 cents to end the day at $1.32 with a volume of 23,959 shares traded for $31,605. The stock closed the day without any stock being offered for sale. ANSA McAL accounted for 15,071 shares valued $999,154, while Prestige Holdings added 13,360 shares valued at $124,916. Clico Investment Fund, posted a volume of 13,000 shares valued at $279,500 and the stock price declined by 49 cents to end at $21.50.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows that bids for 2 stocks were higher and 4 stocks had offers lower than their last selling price.

TTSE: Painfully slow Wednesday

Wednesday, 24th July 2013 | Activity on the Trinidad Stock Exchange was painfully slow on Wednesday as just 5 securities traded, of which 3 advanced and 2 traded firm as 18,244 shares crossed the floor of the exchange valued at $1,403,089.05.

Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago traded 600 shares as high as $71.42 during the day, a new 52 weeks high, but the last traded price was the same as Tuesday at $70.01. West Indian Tobacco Company had 11,004 shares changing hands for a value of $1,298,472 as the stock put on 44 cents to close at $118. Angostura Holdings’ 4,515 shares traded for $40,725. One Caribbean Media chipped in with 1,125 units with a value of $20,250 as the stock price gained 39 cents to close at $18, a new 52 weeks closing high. National Flour Mills added 1,000 shares valued at $790.

Trinidad Cement did not trade but there is a bid at $1.24 which is above Tuesday’s price of $1.21 for 309,751 units.

IC Bid offer indicator| At the end of trading there were 3 stocks with bids higher than the lasts selling price and just one with the offer price being lower than the last price.

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