The recovery of tourist traffic to Jamaica from the closure of the industry in 2020, continues robustly with early data showing Montego Bay enjoying a 15.5 percent bounce in passenger movements through the Sangster International Airport, with 469,700 passenger passing through that airport in August this year, compared with 405,800 in 2022 with a 24.4 percent jump for the year to date to 3.64 million, up from 2,925 in 2022 for the same period.
Traffic in August for Kingston was up just 6 percent to 195,600 compared with 184,600 in 2022 and is up 21.7 percent to 1.207 million from 991,700 in 2022. Data was taken from the release of traffic for the various airports operated by Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico, who are operators of both Jamaican Airports.
Traffic to Jamaica is up 15 percent over 2019, the last full year with no disruption with some 406,993 passengers passing through the Sangster Airport while Kingston is 5.4 down on the 205,860 passengers in 2019. Sangster’s, with 3.41 million passing through the airport just under 7 percent ahead of 2019 and the 1.33 million traversing the Kingston down 9 percent below the 2019 numbers.
Passenger movements represent incoming and outgoing passengers, roughly half represent incoming, with those passing through Sangster’s representing the majority of visitors to the island as such it provides a good proxy for stopover visitor arrivals to the country.
Tourist arrivals up nearly 50 percent in February
Tourist arrivals in February this year are up nearly 50 percent, according to data showing passenger movements through the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, while the Norman Manley airport in Kingston saw a 43 percent increase in passenger movements for the same period compared with 2022.
Growth in tourism is expected to be big in 2023
Aeroportuario del Pacifico, which manages the airports in Montego Bay and Kingston, Jamaica, saw the total number of passengers at Montego Bay Airport increase by a robust 49.5 percent in February 2023, moving from 274,700 total movements in February 2022 to 410,700 in February 2023. For the first two months of the year, Montego Bay Airport saw total passenger movements increase by 58.4 percent, from 542,300 in 2022 to 859,100 in 2023.
Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport, which processes far fewer passengers than Montego Bay, handled 112,200 passengers in February 2023, 43 percent more than the 78,400 managed in February 2022. In the first two months of 2023, Kingston’s Airport saw passengers grow by 52 percent, from 169,900 in 2022 to 258,200.
Dolphin Cove to be a big beneficiary of turn in tourism in 2023.
The improvement in one of the most important industries within the Jamaican economy will drive growth and have an overall positive effect on some sectors more than others. Accordingly, the agricultural and transportation industries are two areas that will see immediate impact, as tourists have to be transported to and from airports and others areas within the country and have to be fed, with a large portion of the menu comprising goods that are produced or sold locally. From a stock market standpoint, some companies will benefit considerably and others less. Companies such as Everything Fresh, Caribbean Producers, Dolphin Cove, Express Catering, which generate a considerable portion of their business directly with the sector, will significantly improve revenues and profit. Companies such as Jamaica Broilers, Wisynco Group, Grace Kennedy, Knutsford Express and Seprod.
Jamaica’s economy looking great for 2023
The Jamaican economy could grow by more than 6 percent in 2022, with continued growth in tourism and the Alcoa Alumina plant back in production in late August and could lift the December quarter growth above the 5.9 percent that Statin reported for the September quarter. The strong second half year growth should carry over into 2023, coming from an average increase of 5.73 percent for the period up to September and will be boosted by the expected continued strong resurgence of the tourism sector in 2023, barring unforeseen adverse developments, along with the impact of production from the reopening of the Jamalco Alumina plant that will add quite a bit to growth going into the first half of 2023.
Mining to contribute to GDP gains in 2023
Inflation is still not entirely under control yet, but it peaked in 2021, with the average for 2022 running close to the upper end of the central bank’s target of 4 to 6 percent. Developments that should help decrease the rate include world oil prices that have fallen substantially from the over $US120 experienced after the Ukraine war started and are now around US$80 a barrel. Prices of some other commodities are reduced and others could follow as a push of interest rates by several developed countries is set to tighten economic activities and trim demand. A tighter labour market, locally, could put upward pressure on wages and prices, but the tighter monetary policy from last year could hold prices down for a while.
Growth is not only expected from the above two areas. Assuming fair weather conditions, Agriculture, the star performer in the economy for several years, should continue its contribution in 2023. The sector will be helped by growth in tourism that feeds off the industry. The BPO sector seems poised to continue to add to growth as well as the construction sector, with continued growth in housing, road construction and the need for factories and warehousing space. There may well be a lull in the sector with the two south coast roads coming to completion in 2023: the Harbour View to Portland leg and the May Pen to Williamsfield leg of Highway 2000. The Montego Bay perimeter road should take over but may not fill the gap. This may not happen until the Montego Bay to Ocho Rios dualisation commences and is well on the way.
Why is tourism so important? Data shows that for the first quarter in 2022, stopover arrivals were 28 percent below arrivals for 2019, with the June quarter off by 3.3 percent, but September to November increased an average of 12 percent, which means that the first quarter in 2023 could see a 50 percent increase over 2019 and much more over 2022 in the first half on 2022.
Tourist arrivals into Jamaica are now running at record levels since August 2022. Data shows the country enjoying four consecutive months of arrivals exceeding similar months in 2019, the previous best period. Airport passenger movements through the Sangster Airport are up an average of 12 percent for the September to November period.
Growth in tourism is expected to be big in 2023
If the recent trend continues, it would mean that stopover arrivals should be in the order of 3 million next year, up from 2,680,920 in 2019 and would exceed those in 2022 by a solid 20 percent, with the winter months enjoying much higher levels of growth as shown above.
The strong rebound in tourism traffic in the first half of the year, compared with 2022, will contribute to above average GDP growth in the first half but will also result in a significant jump in revenues and profits for some companies and the government. This will have significant implications for the foreign exchange market with significantly increased flows, especially in the year’s first half. This development could also impact interest rates as BOJ may no longer have to lend much support to the local currency using high interest rates.
ICinsider.com don’t see interest moving higher and most likely will start to decline before midyear, with inflation within reach of the BOJ target of 4-6 percent in 2022 and with interest rates seeming to peak at 8.46 percent from April 2022 and remaining at the 8 percent level since based on 182 days Treasury bills.
Jamaica’s labour market has tightened and could pressure inflation in 2023.
Unemployment at 6.6 percent in July is expected to fall in 2023 towards the 5 percent region as more workers will be needed to man the economic expansion. This could mean wage increases could rise above normal to retain or attract new workers.
But all the above is good news for the private sector overall, that should see increasing demand for goods and services.
The banking sector showed loans growing at an annual pace of 12 percent up to September 2022, data from the Bank of Jamaica shows up to $1,096 billion, but increased loan rates may be negatively affecting some areas. With what could be a year of reducing interest rates engineered by BOJ, there could be even faster loan growth in 2023 than in 2022.
Remittances in 2022 appear they will fall short of the US$3.5 billion generated in 2021 and could come in at just over $3.4 billion for the year, reaching $2.84 billion to October. It may again slip marginally in 2023 since the big surge that took it from $2.4 billion in 2019 to the $3.5 billion level.
Net International Reserves. Jamaica’s Net International Reserves are in a healthy position with a jump of $75 million to $3.85 billion in November, data released by the Bank of Jamaica shows, an improvement over October at $3.77 billion. This year’s November balance is at the highest monthly balance for 2022 but is down US$150 million from the end of December last year with a net of $4 billion. Data from the Bank of Jamaica shows a US$100 million growth to Mid December 2022 that would push the net to around US$3.95, just shy of US$4 billion. Daily trades in the forex market after mid-December suggest a continued buildup of the reserves that should push it over the US$4 billion mark by the end of 2022, with the exchange rate for the Jamaica dollar appreciating 152 to the US dollar at the end of the year.
Road construction could slow growth in the sector in 2023
With the significant rebound in tourism, a resurgence in the Alumina sector and relatively stable remittances and BPO sectors, the country should enjoy record foreign exchange inflows in 2023.
Developments on the foreign exchange front could result in greater stability in the exchange rate for the local dollar. Investors should not be too surprised if there is some revaluation, especially in the first half.
The entertainment and transportation sectors seem poised to get a shot in the arm and benefit from the rebound in tourism, increased employment in the country and the general buoyancy in the wider economy.
The present government will be in power for three years at the end of August, but the last public opinion polls indicate a huge lead over the opposition party; with such a lead, the government is in the driver’s seat as to when elections will be called. But the opposition party could start revving up their machinery, so there could be a fair bit of noise to contend with. Local government elections are due in 2023 and barring some significant negative development these elections appear as if they will proceed as planned. If the opposition does well in these elections, it could result in the political heat being turned up a notch or two. If they don’t things will quiet down as the odds favour the government going the full term.
The above are positive developments but investors cannot ignore the impact that the war in Ukraine has had and could have going forward as well as concerns about the covid19 problems in China and how that could affect the world economies.
Reports to follow – Interest rates and the stock market. Outlook for stocks in 2023. Top 15 stocks. Stocks to watch in 2023.
The big winners from tourism rebound
Jamaica tourism arrival numbers are approaching 80 percent of the 2019 figures. That is good news for the country, workers in the industry, and businesses close to the hotel areas and has major implications for listed companies.
Caribbean Producers back in TOP 10
Recent data of inward bound passengers through the country’s international airports suggest that tourist arrivals for 2021 will be robust and at levels that far surpass that of 2020. Not only will the numbers exceed that of 2020, but the most lucrative period of December to April when visitor arrival numbers are some of the best monthly patronages, but the rates paid to visit are at the highest for the year.
The rebound means more revenues for the government, more foreign exchange earnings for the country, more wages paid to workers and more income for persons and companies providing goods and services to the sector.
The big winners for listed companies are Caribbean Producers, a major supplier of goods to sector in Jamaica and St Lucia. Everything Fresh is also a significant supplier to the sector in Jamaica and should see a rise in sales, Express Catering generates all its income from the industry, with its locations within the Sangster International Airport and Dolphin Cove with its attractions being a big draw for tourists.
Dolphin Cove
Others to benefit to a lesser degree are GraceKennedy, Wisynco, Jamaica Broilers, Knutsford Express and Fontana, the latter, with stores in Ocho Rios and Montego that sell to the visitors.
The rebound has significant implications for the foreign exchange market in 2022. In 2019, the tourism sector earned around $3 billion and just $1 billion in 2020. A return to 2019 visitor arrival number should see another $2 billion gross generated by the country than for 2020 and 2021, along with the billion increase in remittances since 2019 if maintained into 2022, should result in one of the most buoyant foreign exchange environment for the county.
Jamaica’s tourist arrivals set for 170K in July
Tourism is Jamaica.
Tourist arrivals for July climbed just over 8 percent above arrivals in June this year, data out of the Sangster International Airport show, with 154,620 passengers arriving up from 142,727 in June.
Arrivals numbers are up nearly 400 percent above the 31,000 that came in July 2020, the second month of the country re-opening its borders to overseas’ visitors. Jamaica Tourist Board data show stopover arrivals in May 2021 at 122,522 compared to the airport arrivals through Montego Bay of 108,320. That means that Kingston accounted for around 24,000 visitor arrivals. Based on the above numbers, July should end up at 170,000 stopover arrivals and June is likely to end up around 160,000, as the country continues to record increasing numbers of guests following the dislocation last year.
June stopover visitor arrivals set for 160,000
Stopover arrivals in May 2021 were 122,522 Jamaica Tourist Board recently released data shows, just over 2,500 above ICInsider.com original May forecast. Data of passenger arrivals through the Sangster’s International Airport suggests that stopover arrivals for June should reach 160,000 or 67 percent of the arrivals of 239,000 June in 2019.
If the trend continues, July is likely to see just over 200,000 stopover arrivals, which would amount to 77 percent of July 2019 stopover arrivals of 270,462.
In the meantime, arrivals for August this year could exceed the 215,000 arrivals in August 2019.
June arrivals through Sangster’s International Airport were 142,727, which amounts to 61 percent of the June 2019 numbers of 239,000.
For the January to May period, arrivals decreased by 36 percent to 366,499 stopovers, 207,632 less than the 574,131 that came in the first three months of 2020, with the industry closed until late June.
The total stopover arrivals, recently released by the Jamaica Tourist Board for May are down 42 percent from 2019, but a huge improvement over the decline of 65 percent that April suffered against the same period in 2019, additionally, May numbers are 48 percent above April this year, showing the strength of the recovery.
Tourism arrivals jump again
Stopover arrivals in April 2021 were 82,702, up some 12 percent over March this year, with 81,114 of them coming from the United States, the Jamaica Tourist Board reports, there were no arrivals for April last year.
Growth in tourism expected in 2021
The April arrivals represent a fall of 77 percent compared to April 2019, with 366,425 stopover visitors. The trend for 2021 is positive, with arrivals in February in line with January, but February, a shorter month, is qualitatively better than January. March exceeded February by 68 percent and Aril is ahead of March by 12 percent. For the January to April period, arrivals decreased by 57.5 percent, with 243,977 stopovers last year but are 330,154 less than the 574,131 stopovers coming in 2020.
Airport traffic data indicates that May will see the highest monthly influx of visitors, with 120,000 stopover arrivals for the first time since March 2020.
The numbers are set to rise even more for the summer months, with some hotels turning away visitors being fully booked out.
Jamaica’s reserves spike US$100m
Jamaica’s Net International Reserves climbed US$100 million higher in May to reach US$3.42 billion from US$3.32 at the end of April after a $300 million surge in March with a rise of US$303 to US$3.32 billion from US$3.016 billion at the end of February, this year.
The country’s gross reserves are now at US$4.35 billion and include US$930 million due to the International Monetary Fund. The increase in May comes at a time when inflows from tourism are at the highest levels since March 2020 as the sector makes rapid strides in recovery, with May having the highest number of overseas visitors since the country reopened its borders to tourist in June last year. Reports from the tourism industry suggest that visitor arrival numbers for June and July will be appreciably better than for May and should add to foreign currency inflows into the country and most likely the NIR as well.
The country is also benefitting from a continued increase in remittances inflows that became evident since May 2020.
The reserves are at the highest sustained levels in the country’s history. The net reserves represent an estimated 30.57 weeks of Goods & Services imports for Jamaica.
May’s Jamaica’s tourist arrivals to surge 44%
Tourism numbers continue to be on the rise for Jamaica, with May likely to reach 120,000 stopover arrivals or 57 percent of the 210,664 stopover arrivals in May 2019, representing the best month’s performance since the closure of the country’s borders last year March, but industry experts say the increase is coming, with steeply discounted rates.
Tourism is Jamaica’s largest earner of foreign exchange.
Arriving passengers passing through the Sangster’s International airport surged 44 percent in May over April’s arrivals to 108,320, suggesting that stopover arrivals for the country will reach the 120,000 mark.
The last report of total visitor arrivals put out by the Jamaica Tourist Board puts stopover arrivals in March 2021 at 73,646, up 68 percent over February. The increase is close to the arrival numbers through Sangster’s Airport with March this year, showing a 77 percent increase in airport arrivals through Montego Bay over February.
April enjoyed a 12.5 percent bounce in arrivals through the Sangster airport over March that had 75,139 arrivals, suggesting that April’s stopover visitor arrivals should reach around 82,000, well off the 232,834 attained in April 2019.
The trends suggest that arrivals for June could reach approximately 65 percent of the 2019 stopover arrivals of 238,888, with strong prospects of the rest of summer numbers bouncing as well.
Industry sources informed IC Insider.com that things are picking up in the sector, but there is unevenness as to who are the beneficiaries of the rebound. Hotels have been involved in steep discounting of rates to attract visitors and the big named chains are getting a much bigger share of the pie than the smaller hotels. 
For example, data out of the sector indicates that hotels with 100 rooms or more are said to have had occupancy levels an average of just over 50 percent compared to smaller hotels under 100 rooms with just 37 percent for May, while the expectation for June is 60 percent occupancy, with smaller hotels expecting just 35 percent, July is expected to have similar levels as June.
The curfew hours have played a big role in the grave disparity, the source indicates, in the vast gap in occupancy between the smaller and the larger properties. The larger hotels have a lot of activities taking place within their borders compared to smaller ones that guess spend more time outside the properties than inside, with the curfew hours restricting their movements in the night and what they can or cannot do.
Tourism seems to bounce big in March
Jamaica’s tourism industry is bouncing back at a better pace than is generally known. Data on passenger movements through the country’s two major international airports show a fall of 51 percent compared to March 2020, but that is a major improvement over the 78 percent decline in the first two months this year.
Tourism is Jamaica’s largest earner of foreign exchange.
Admittedly, last years’ March numbers were negatively affected by the closure of the country’s borders on March 21, but the absolute numbers travelling in March is up substantially over both January and February this year, a sign of an improving market. With the country’s borders closed in the 2020 period, there were virtually no visitors entering the country until the end of May last year.
According to data from Aeroportuario del Pacifico, that manages many of Mexico’s airports and those in Montego Bay and Kingston, Jamaica, show the total number of passenger movements through the Kingston Airport falling 49.7 percent in March 2021 to 36,700 passenger movements, from 72,900 movements in March 2020. For the first three months of 2021, total passenger movements through Kingston’s Airport fell 67.4 percent, from 354,700 in 2020 to 115,500.
A better gauge of the rebound is the month over month change, with total passenger movements in March 2021 being up 22 percent over the 30,100 passenger movements in February this year. Kingston is not the main entrant or departure point for tourist visiting.
Montego Bay Airport saw a fall in the number of passenger movements of 50.5 percent in March 2021, from 261,500 in March 2020 to 129,400 in March this year. For the first three months of 2021, total passenger movements for the Montego Bay Airport fell 73 percent, from 1,133,900 in 2020 to just 304,600. The total number of passenger movements in March 2021 was, however, 71 percent more than the 75,600 handled in February 2021, an indication of a strong recovery trend.
