FX: Rates retreat again

Monday, 24th June 2013 | All rates fell across the board on Monday in the foreign exchange market as it was on Friday as buying out numbered selling. Buying amounted to US$40.65 million US dollar equivalent and selling amounted to US$32.7 million.

The average rates for the US dollar fell 13 cents off both the buying and selling with the selling rate closing at $101.28. The Canadian dollar fell by $1.77 for the buy rate and 51 cents for the selling rate, taking the average sell rate to $96.88.  The pound suffered a $2.04 decline of the buying rate to close at $152.87 and dropped 91 cents on the selling rate to end at $155.13, which increased by 38 cents to reach $154.91. The selling rate for the pound fell $1.27 to close at $156.04. The US dollar slipped marginally on both the buy and sell sides and the Canadian dollar fell 80 cents buying and $1.61 selling closing at an average of $95.60 buying and $97.39 selling.

The highest buying and selling rates also saw major changes with most declining with the minimum selling rate for the US dollars dropping back by $15.77. On Friday it had climbed by $16.35 cents to $98.60.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun24

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun24

FX: Rates retreat

Friday, 21st June 2013 | Rates fell across the board on Friday in the foreign exchange market as tighter liquidity took hold in the financial system. According to one source, liquidity tightened with the US dollar index bond issued by Bank of Jamaica on the market and the effect was felt in the local currency and the foreign exchange and stock markets as some big investors rearranged some aspects of their portfolio.

The average buying and selling rates for each currency fell except for the buying rate for the pound which increased by 38 cents to reach $154.91. The selling rate for the pound fell $1.27 to close at $156.04. The US dollar slipped marginally on both the buy and sell sides and the Canadian dollar fell 80 cents buying and $1.61 selling closing at an average of $95.60 buying and $97.39 selling.

The highest buying rate fell 5 cents for the US dollar and the lowest selling rate increased $16.35 cents to $98.60, the Canadian dollar dropped across the board 60 cents for the highest buy rate, $2.24 for the lowest buying rate and $2.59 for the highest selling rate to reach $100.50, and $2 for the lowest selling rate hitting $93 at the end of the day.  The Pound lost $1.50 for the lowest selling rate and $4.98 for the highest selling rate and moved down 60 cents for the highest buying rate and $1.78 for the lowest buying rate.

The total amount of currency purchased was US$29.8 million (Thursday was US$25.15 million) and selling US$30.6 million (Thursday accounted for $26.78 million).

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun21FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun21

FX: Markets settles for now

Thursday, 20th June 2013 | The foreign exchange market settled today after a hectic market yesterday when BOJ intervened to sell US dollars to the market. BOJ did not intervene today. The selling rates for each currency fell 2 cents in the case of the US dollar to $1.64 for the pound and 66 cents for the Canadian dollar. Buying rates also fell for the US dollar by 37.5 cents, Canadian by $2.10 and the Pound by $2.54.

The highest buying rate fell 70 cents for the US dollar and the lowest selling rate dropped $16.45 down to $82.25. The only change for Canadian dollar was a drop in the lowest selling rate which shed a $1 down to $95. The Pound lost $1 for the lowest selling rates, climbed $3.53 for the highest sell rate and moved up 40 cents for the highest buying rate. There was no change for the lowest buying rate. The movement in the US dollar against most international currencies would have had an impact on the Canadian dollar and the pound which accounted for the sharper fall in those currencies.

The total amount of currency purchased was US$25.15 million and selling accounted for $26.78 million.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun20

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun20

FX: BOJ intervenes with big trades

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Wednesday, 19th June 2013 | Information reaching IC Insider is that Jamaica’s central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market today by selling US dollars to dealers at $101.45 for resale at $101.50. The last time the country’s central bank intervened to sell to the market was back on October 26 of last year at a rate of $90.98.

To access the facilities at BOJ, banks had to inform the central bank as to the names of the end users and the purpose that the funds would be used for. IC Insider gathers that the intervention created instability in the market.

While the central bank was not active before on the selling side they have been very active on the buying side. On May 22, BOJ intervened to buy US dollars at $99.23, they did so as well on the May 20 and 21 at a buying rate of J$99.13. On May 17 the BOJ bought at $99.03, on May 8 it was at $99.0276, and on February 15 they bought at $95.3564.

US$&Coins280x150The dealers bought the equivalent of US$73.93 million but sold US$135.3 million on a day when the rate on the sell side of all three main currencies decreased with the US dollar selling cheaper by 11 cents, the Canadian  20 cents less and the Pound sterling 90 cents less than on Tuesday.

One source pointed out that all their clients who were waiting to get funds were able to do so today. Another source said that the central bank is of the view that dealers have been holding foreign exchange and the BOJ is using the various tools to get banks to reduce their portfolio of foreign currencies.

It appears that BOJ’s decision to intervene may have started the sell off from yesterday and it accelerated today as the mismatch between buying and selling over the last two days suggests that something extra ordinary has been taking place in the market.

The conclusion may well be that non-financial investors may have sold today with the announced intervention by BOJ, hence the large amount bought by authorised dealers.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun19

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun19

FX: Selling overwhelms buying

Tuesday, 18th June 2013 | Trading in the foreign exchange market today was dominated by selling of the currencies but at higher rates than on Monday except for the Canadian dollar which fell by 8 cents. The US dollar cost 45 cents more as the selling rate slipped to $101.61 while the buying rate moved up by 58 cents to $100.87. The pound was sold at 48 cents more than on Monday as it took $159.85 top buy a pound. Authorised dealers bought the pound for 89 cents less than yesterday.

A total of US$31.8 million was purchased and US$69.6 million was sold on the day the BOJ two CDS closed. On the closing date of the last two BOJ CDs there were similar levels of trades.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun18

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun18

FX: Selling exceed buying by US$4.7M

Monday, 17 June 2013 | Authorised dealers purchased less foreign exchange than they sold today at higher prices than on Friday and sold all three major currencies at higher rates as well. While they bought the US dollar for 29 cents more than on Friday, they sold it for only 7.7 cents more than Friday’s rate as the US dollar sold averaging at $101.164. The Canadian dollar was bought for 61.5 cents more and sold for 45 cents more and the Pound sterling was bought for 54 more and sold for 49 more than on Friday.

US$28.16 was purchased and US$34.65 was sold on a day when C$1.4 million was purchased at an average rate of $97.86 and C$1.2 was sold at $99.95, the Pound sterling accounted for £2.24 million at $156.86 and selling took place at $159.78 as £1.87 million was sold.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun17

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun17

BOJ offers yet another instrument

Fast on the heels of an issue of two local certificates of deposit that close on Tuesday, 18 June 2013, Jamaica’s central bank, the Bank of Jamaica, announces the offer of another special money market instrument commencing Thursday, 20 June 2013. The instrument, a 365-day US-Dollar Indexed Note due 2014 and is extended to all primary dealers and commercial banks.

The term sheet will be circulated via electronic mail to these institutions on Wednesday, 19 June 2013. A check with the BOJ did not disclose the terms of the issue other than what has been released but IC Insider gathers that the use of this instrument is to provide an alternative instrument for investment purposes without affecting the demand for foreign exchange. IC Insider can report that at least one big bank is rationing US dollars to $2,000 per day per person.

The central bank says in a release that it will continue to offer its regular 30-day Certificate of Deposit at the current interest rate of 5.75 per cent per annum. In addition, the current offers of variable rate Certificate of Deposits will remain open until Tuesday, 18 June 2013, as originally advised and will continue to monitor conditions in the financial markets and adjust its market operations to maintain stability.

FX: US14M bought than sold

Friday, 14th June 2013 | The evidence is building to confirm than its not normal demand that is driving the rate of exchange for the Jamaican dollar. During the week ending Friday, authorised dealers bought the equivalent of US$14 more than they sold, with only Thursday’s trade when they bought US$200,000 more than they sold reflecting more demand than the amounts bought. Nevertheless, the rate of exchange climbed for all three major currencies during the week.

In Friday’s trading, US dollar buying by authorised dealers translated to US$2.2 million more than the amount sold but the average rate for buying and selling rose by 3 cents for buys and 30 cents selling. C$727,000 was purchased and C$570,000 sold as the average buying rate declined by 71 cents and selling rose by 15 cents. The Pound sterling rose $1.31 for buying and selling cost an average of $1.13 more than on Thursday. Overall, the equivalent of US$5 million more was purchased than the amount sold. Buying amounted to $25.54 million and selling $20.6 million.

Highest & lowest | On Friday, the highest rates climbed for all currencies with the US dollar rising by 50 cents but selling rates had no change over Thursday’s, the Canadian dollar rose $1.35 and the selling rate was up 16 cents and the Pound rose 95 cents and fell $2.99 on selling. The lowest rates saw no change in the US dollar while the Canadian rose 54 cent for buying and 60 cents for selling and the pound rose 17 cents buying and $3.30 selling. 

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun14

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun14

Market demand is not driving J$, BOJ is

Over the last three weeks there has been more buying of foreign exchange by authorised dealers than selling, yet the Jamaican dollar has slipped in value. This is not the case of market forces determining the value of the currency, it is manipulation by the central bank to achieve a rate they are happy with. Take the case this week. So far, every day the buying of foreign exchange is more than the amount sold, yet the rates have slipped.

According to The Gleaner, the Governor of the central bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, while addressing journalists at a Jamaica House press briefing yesterday, said he understood the consternation of sections of the populace as the dollar eased past the J$100 to US$1 mark, but suggested that the dollar was finding its true value in a market-determined environment.

“We in Jamaica are operating a flexible exchange rate regime that is determined by the market and that is based on the principle that is determined by the market,” Wynter stressed.

Wynter signaled that he was unruffled as the movement of the local currency was consistent with the expectations of the Central Bank, operating under a flexible exchange rate regime, to which the Central Bank is committed. “The exchange falls within the boundary of the BOJ‘s forecast,” asserted Wynter.

USD_Clock150x150We understand that the central bank can’t give an indication of what is its intention with regards the rate of the Jamaican dollar, but to say that the rate is being market determined seems like a big joke when one examines what is taking place.

To be fair, the Governor did give a clear indication. As reported in the Jamaica Observer, the Governor said, “If you have a strong exchange rate that benefits the consumer that is going to make it progressively harder for exporters to compete in overseas markets. If you go the other route and have a too weak dollar you will reverse that picture but also have too much inflation in the domestic economy,” he said. “We have to find the right balance and the programme we are operating within at the moment is built on a balance that will best provide the conditions for export-led growth,” he added.

In short, it is our conclusive opinion that the central bank is the one intervening to move the rate — not normal market forces.

  1. The NIR is less than a billion at the end of May. One supposes that physiologically, building the NIR to over a billion dollars would be better ahead of the post-summer months when inflows are less and demand is higher.
  2. Next, is the other strange thing happening in the FX market. Authorized foreign exchange dealers are selling more foreign exchange than they are buying for the past two weeks, which make no sense. Why would they be selling from their inventory if there is going to be much higher rates down the road? Why are they tying up Jamaican dollars at relatively low interest rates if the benefits to be obtained by interest earned will be eroded by a depreciated dollar? The central bank confirmed that the CD issue that ended on the 7th of this month resulted in tighter Jamaican dollar liquidity and that BOJ bought foreign currency from the dealers. In this sense, BOJ is fully aware of what is happening and is clearly trying to beef up the foreign currency reserves. The BOJ has quickly, as the previous CD issue closed, issued two more to pull more foreign exchange out of the system.

Yes, it is supply and demand that’s driving the rate. But the demand is one that is based on the BOJ encouraging the rate to move up by buying the banks surplus funds at higher and higher rates.

Talk back | Do you agree that the BOJ is influencing the demand side of the equation?

FX: J$ reaches new low

Thursday, 13th June 2013 | The Jamaican dollar reached a new low in all currencies today as dealers sold the US dollar for 32 cents more than they did on Wednesday as they bought it for an average of 45 cents more. The Canadian dollar was bought by dealers at just 6 cents more and sold it for 86 cents more, than on Wednesday and for the pound it was selling 73 cents more but 96 cents less when they purchased.

The amount of the US currency actually purchased was slight more than the amount sold US$22.45 bought and US$21.95 sold. C$1.2 million was purchased and C$944,000 sold and for the pound sterling purchases amounted to £1 million and selling £1.4 million.

Closing selling rates were US dollar, J$100.782, Canadian dollar J$99.343 and pound sterling J$157.76.

FX_TRADE+Currency+Jun13

FX_TRADE+HighLow+Jun13

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