Watch their money not their words

Natalia Gobin-Gunter Chairman and Deputy Managing director inserting name strip to indicate listing of Key Insurance on the junior market.

Natalia Gobin-Gunter Chairman and Deputy Managing director inserting name strip to indicate listing of Key Insurance on the junior market.

Bank of Jamaica’s survey findings of perceptions of Present and Future Business Conditions in Jamaica reached the second highest levels in February 2016, since its inception in 2005. The data shows up the disparity of in how business executives think and what they do reflecting the real world, experience of a gulf between what people say they will do and what they in fact do. In the 2015 elections in Trinidad, 74 percent of voters indicated they were going to vote but 66.84 percent finally turned out to do so, while in Jamaica, pollsters said between 59 and 62 percent of the electorate were going to vote and only 48 percent did.
The survey findings of carried out amongst Jamaica’s business executives, show wild swings in their views on current conditions since the start of the data in 2005, while the index of future business conditions was far more predictive of actual business developments. The attached chart shows this up quite clearly. Other findings of the survey also points out that the top management of the various companies were was off the mark when it came to inflation, interest rates and the rate of exchange of the local dollar. One of the clearest measures to test what the executives say and do, is a comparison of the sentiments on business conditions and the performance of the stock market.
When it came time for the business community to put their money where their mouth is, it turned out to be vastly different from what they were saying in the Business Condition Survey. One measure of the business community’s bet on the future, is shown in the attached graph. The graph shows future expectations are is much more aligned with future business conditions than with current ones.
Grph BCon-stks 02-16What the business sector did, reflected itself in a much smoother monthly movement than what they said about the future. When it comes to money, the stock market reflects what people are doing with their money as opposed to what they say. The chart shows the movement in the all Jamaica Composite Index, plotted against the two business surveys published by the country’s central bank.
The movement of the stock market seems a better predictor of future expectations, than the surveys, as shown by the smoother movement of the stock market compared with the sentiments data. What is also true, is that the future expectations and the stock market movements are fairly closely aligned with each other.

More FX bought than sold – Friday

Pound Trading in the Jamaican foreign exchange market saw dealers purchasing US$8 more than they sold on Friday, with trading levels back to normal, compared to over US$120 million dollar changing hands on Thursday. The rate of the local dollar saw a very slight erosion, climbing to $123.15 for the selling rate of the US dollar. The Jamaican dollar declined against the Canadian dollar and gained against the Pound.
The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$33,671,447 and selling US$25,438,235, in contrast to US$123,767,068 purchased and US$123,055,349 sold on Thursday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$30,487,529 compared to US$120,456,040 on Thursday, as the buying rate for the US dollar fell 53 cents to close at $122.37.FX trde sum 29-04-16 A total of US$24,056,712 was sold versus US$120,998,074 on Thursday with the selling rate rising 1 cent to $123.15. The Canadian dollar buying rate jumped $1.24 to end at $95.16 with dealers buying C$1,262,941 and selling C$580,684, at an average rate that rose 51 cents to $97.53. The rate for buying the British Pound fell 83 cents to $175.90 for the purchase of £1,478,725, while £475,362 was sold, as the rate dropped $2.70 to $177.03.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, rose 10 cents to close at J$139.34, from Thursday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$136.98 for a rise of 88 cents from Thursday’s rate. FX HL 29-04-16 The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded amounts to US$76,225 being bought, while US$238,349 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the Jamaican dollar against the main currencies on Friday are, a rise of $9.16 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to end at $102.66, a fall of $1.50 in the highest buying rate of the Canadian dollar to $97.50 and a decline of $2.80 in the lowest selling rate to end at $87.20. A rise of $4.20 in the lowest selling rate to $172.20 for the British Pound.

Big jump in Jamaica’s FX trades – Thursday

FX_USPound Trading jumped sharply in the Jamaican foreign exchange market on Thursday with over US$120 million dollar changing hands for an unusually high level of trading. The rate of the local dollar saw further erosion climbing to $123.14 for the selling rate for the US dollar. The Jamaican dollar declined against the Pound and gained against the Canadian dollar.
The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$123,767,068 and selling US$123,055,349, in contrast to US$40,752,667 purchased and US$33,016,027 sold on Wednesday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$120,456,040 compared to US$33,016,150 on Wednesday, as the buying rate for the US dollar rose 74 cents to close at $122.90. A total of US$120,998,074 was sold versus US$31,727,298 on Wednesday with the selling rate rising 3 cents to $123.14. FX trde sum 28-04-16The Canadian dollar buying rate declined by 17 cents to end at $93.92 with dealers buying C$883,954 and selling C$612,031, at an average rate that fell 33 cents to $97.02. The rate for buying the British Pound fell 3 cents to $176.73 for the purchase of £1,759,249, while £830,527 was sold, as the rate rose $1.16 to $179.73.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, rose 28 cents to close at J$139.24, from Wednesday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$136.10 for a rise of 26 cents from Wednesday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded amounts to US$105,669 being bought, while US$362,915 was sold.
FX HL 28-04-16Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the Jamaican dollar against the main currencies on Thursday are, a fall of $6.53 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to end at $93.50, a fall of $3.78 in the lowest buying rate of the Canadian dollar to $73 and a rise of $2 in the lowest selling rate to end at $90. A fall of $1 in the highest buying rate for the British Pound to $180.50, a rise of $1.72 in the highest selling rate to $185.76 and a rise of $1 in the lowest selling rate to $168.

Jamaican$ at record low – Wednesday

1000frontthe Jamaican dollar crossed over the 123 level to the US dollar in trading in the foreign exchange market on Wednesday to a record low of $123.11 as the Jamaican dollar declined against the three majors, the trade against, compared to the closing rates on Tuesday. The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$40,752,667 and selling US$33,016,027, in contrast to US$37,190,702 purchased and US$42,292,086 sold on Tuesday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$33,016,150 compared to US$31,194,045 on Tuesday, as the buying rate for the US dollar rose 21 cents to close at $122.16.FX trde sum 27-04-16 A total of US$31,727,298 was sold versus US$35,486,211 on Tuesday, that did not prevent the selling rate from rising 22 cents to $123.11. The Canadian dollar buying rate declined by $2.59 to end at $94.09 with dealers buying C$912,746 and selling C$640,401, at an average rate that fell $2.60 to $97.35. The rate for buying the British Pound climbed 44 cents to $176.76 for the purchase of £1,651,764, while £495,529 was sold, as the rate slipped $1.04 to $178.57.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, rose 71 cents to close at J$138.96, from Tuesday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$135.83 for a rise of 47 cents from Tuesday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies FX HL 27-04-16 traded was an unusually large amount of US$4,643,557 being bought, while US$63,620 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the currencies on Wednesday are, a fall of $3 in the lowest selling rate of the Canadian dollar to end at $88, a rise of $1.12 in the lowest buying rate for the British Pound to $142.76 and a fall of $3 in the lowest selling rate to $167.

Jamaican$ slips on Tuesday

US$ bungleTrading in the foreign exchange market on Tuesday resulted in the Jamaican dollar declining against the three majors, the Jamaican dollar trade against, compared to the closing rates on Monday. The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$37,190,702 and selling US$42,292,086, in contrast to US$47,848,516 purchased and US$41,089,504 sold on Monday.
In US dollar trading, dealers bought US$31,194,045 compared to US$42,244,916 on Monday, as the buying rate for the US dollar fell 1 cent to close at $121.95. FX trde sum 26-04-16A total of US$35,486,211 was sold versus US$34,358,438 on Monday, the selling rate rose 21 cents to $122.89. The Canadian dollar buying rate rose 71 cents to end at $96.68 with dealers buying C$2,340,556 and selling C$5,564,128, at an average rate that rose $1.30 to $99.95. The rate for buying the British Pound climbed $2.29 to $176.32 for the purchase of £2,753,016, while £1,523,771 was sold, as the rate rose $2.82 to $179.61.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, rose 36 cents to close at J$138.25, from Monday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$135.37 for a rise of 32 cents from Monday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$160,813 being bought, while US$53,478 was sold.
FX HL 26-04-16Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the currencies on Tuesday are, a fall of $1.81 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to end at $100.03, a rise of $1 in the lowest selling rate of the Canadian dollar to $91, a rise of $3.20 in the highest buying rate for the British Pound to $181.50 and a rise of $1.24, in the highest selling rate to $184.30 and a rise of $4 in the lowest selling rate to $170.

Jamaican$ holding firm – Monday

1000frontTrading in the foreign exchange market on Monday resulted in the Jamaican dollar declining slightly against the US dollar but holding firm versus Canadian dollar while slipping, compared to the closing rate on Friday, for the Pound. The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$47,848,516 and selling US$41,089,504, in contrast to US$33,234,559 purchased and US$36,327,045 sold on Friday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$42,244,916 compared to US$30,697,232 on Friday, as the buying rate for the US dollar fell 2 cents to close at $121.96. A total of US$34,358,438 was sold versus US$33,977,802 on Friday, the selling rate rose 1 cent to $122.68.FX trde sum 25-04-16 The Canadian dollar buying rate jumped $3.04 to end at $95.97 with dealers buying C$2,945,603 and selling C$5,217,053, at an average rate that rose $1 to $98.65. The rate for buying the British Pound climbed $1.78 to $174.03 for the purchase of £2,205,859, while £1,504,411 was sold, as the rate rose $1.76 to $176.79.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, fell 56 cents to close at J$137.89, from Friday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$135.05 for a fall of 60 cents from Friday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$137,980 being bought, while US$368,121 was sold.
FX HL 25-04-16Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the currencies on Monday are, a jump of $1.97 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to end at $101.84, a rise of $2 in the lowest selling rate of the Canadian dollar to $90, a rise of $1.10 in the highest buying rate for the British Pound to $178.30 and a fall of $2.50, in the lowest selling rate to $166.

Jamaica’s business optimism surges

New units built at Montego Freeport in 2015.

New units built at Montego Freeport in 2015.

Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is reporting a surge in perceptions of present and future business conditions in Jamaica over December last year, as seen by business executives.
Present business conditions reached its second highest level in February when measured by the index of present business conditions, since the record high of 240.2 in the September 2007 survey, Bank of Jamaica reported.
The index of present business conditions increased to 224.9 from 190.4 in the December 2015 survey. The out turn compares with a low of 47.50 reached in April 2013 and in March 2010 the lowest level of 40. The index has a base of 100 in December 2005.
The executives have a heightened picture of the future as the index of future business conditions also climbed reaching 172.1 from 158.2 in the previous survey. Grph BCon 02-16The improvement in both indices reflected increases in the number of respondents of the view that conditions were or will be “better” while there were declines in the number of respondents indicating that conditions were “worse” the BOJ report stated. The recent improvement is reflective of a gradual improvement since the latter half of 2013 and it been on the increase since with the occasional slip as occurred in July 2015.
The chart shows that the perception of future business conditions is more stable than short term current conditions view. The data shows in the latter part of 2015, for the first second time since the commencement of the survey, the present business conditions have moved well ahead of future conditions.

Jamaican$ ended mixed – Friday

PoundTrading in the foreign exchange market on Friday resulted in the Jamaican dollar declining slightly against the US dollar holding firm versus Canadian and slipping compared to the closing rate on Thursday for the pound. The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$33,234,559 and selling US$36,327,045, in contrast to US$32,674,699 purchased and US$31,565,070 sold on Thursday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$30,697,232 compared to US$29,806,276 on Thursday, as the buying rate for the US dollar remained unchanged at $121.98.FX trde sum 22-04-16 A total of US$33,977,802 was sold versus US$26,974,270 on Thursday, the selling rate rose 3 cents to $122.67. The Canadian dollar buying rate dropped $2 to end at $92.93 with dealers buying C$816,887 and selling C$1,804,263, at an average rate that remained at $97.65. The rate for buying the British Pound fell 2 cents to $172.25 for the purchase of £1,153,927, while only £484,850 was sold, as the rate rose $2 to $175.03.
At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, fell 43 cents to close at J$138.45, from Thursday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$135.65 for a fall of 40 cents from Thursday’s rate.
FX HL 22-04-16 The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$285,474 being bought, while US$221,219 was sold.
Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the currencies on Friday are, a jump of $15.73 in the lowest buying rate of the US dollar to end at $99.99 and a fall of $18.13 in the lowest selling rate to $99.87, a rise of $1 in the highest buying rate for the British Pound to $177.20 and an increase of $2.50 in the lowest selling rate to $168.50.

Jamaican$ continues sliding- Thursday

1000frontTrading in the foreign exchange market on Thursday resulted in the Jamaican dollar declining in value for the fourth time this week. The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$32,674,699 and selling US$31,565,070, in contrast to US$33,990,180 purchased and US$38,856,139 sold on Wednesday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$29,806,276 compared to US$30,872,138 on Wednesday, as the buying rate for the US dollar added 11 cents to end at $121.98. A total of US$26,974,270 was sold versus US$36,566,568 on Wednesday, the selling rate rose 9 cents to $122.64. FX trde sum 21-04-16The Canadian dollar buying rate rose 25 cents to end at $94.93 with dealers buying C$1,587,124 and selling C$5,087,645, at an average rate that was up 74 cents to $97.65. The rate for buying the British Pound rose 4 cents to $172.27 for the purchase of £1,109,310, while only £337,379 was sold, as the rate fell $1.84 to $173.03. At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, fell 42 cents to close at J$138.89, from Wednesday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$136.05 for a fall of 13 cents on Wednesday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$66,687 being bought, while US$63,768 was sold.
FX HL 21-04-16Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the currencies on Thursday are, a fall of $15.61 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to $84.26, a rise of $1 in the lowest selling rate of the Canadian dollar to $88, a decline of $1.30 in the highest buying rate for the British Pound to $176.20 and an increase of $1 in the lowest selling rate to $166.

More losses for Jamaican$ – Wednesday

FX_USPoundTrading in the foreign exchange market resulted in the Jamaican dollar losing some more value on Wednesday for the third time this week. The market closed with dealers buying the equivalent of US$33,990,180 and selling US$38,856,139, in contrast to US$29,032,584 purchased and US$51,852,594 sold on Tuesday.
In US dollars trading, dealers bought US$30,872,138 compared to US$25,427,548 on Tuesday, as the buying rate for the US dollar added 33 cents to end at $121.87. A total of US$36,566,568 was sold versus US$47,856,185 on Tuesday, the selling rate rose 9 cents to $122.55. FX trde sum 20-04-16The Canadian dollar buying rate rose 20 cents to end at $94.68 with dealers buying C$1,476,932 and selling C$1,354,910, at an average rate that fell 59 cents to $96.91. The rate for buying the British Pound rose by 68 cents to $172.23 for the purchase of £1,299,462, while £637,723 was sold, as the rate rose $2.08 to $174.87. At the end of trading, the selling rate for Euro, rose 72 cents to close at J$139.31, from Tuesday’s rate, according to data from Bank of Jamaica, while dealers purchased the European common currency at J$136.19 for a rise of 40 cents on Tuesday’s rate. The US dollar equivalent of other currencies traded, amounts to US$134,236 being bought, while US$308,070 was sold.
FX HL 20-04-16Highs & Lows| Notable changes to the highest and lowest traded rates for the currencies on Wednesday are, a jump of $16.57 in the lowest selling rate of the US dollar to $118.80, a rise of $1 in the highest buying rate for the British Pound to $177.50, an increase of $1.03 in the lowest buying rate to $140.06, a rise in the in the highest selling rate by $1.35 to $182.25, while the lowest selling rate fell $1 to $165.