Trading in the past week saw the Junior Market continuing its bullish rise, to sit at a 14.5 months high, but the Main Market continues to consolidate, sitting well below last April’s peak, but technical signals suggest that this situation is going to end soon.
Increased buying came into the market for Caribbean Cream during the past week, but the price pulled back slightly at the close to $6.34 for the stock to return to the TOP 10 at the expense of Main Event that closed the week with an impressive gain of 36 percent as it closed at $4.74. There were no exits or additions to the Main market TOP 10. Additionally, the top three Junior Market stocks changed markedly, with only one from last week remaining in the top three.
Recent activity in Caribbean Cream’s stock comes against the background of a rising stock price from a low of $4.35 to $6.34 over the past month and seems to suggest that investors are anticipating positive news when the company releases full year results later this month. The board meets next week Friday to consider a dividend. The financials for the full year to February should be released in days after.
The main market continues to trade in a narrow channel and now shows signs that a break out is imminent. First quarter results start coming in the latter part of this month and will determine the short-term move. In this regard, watch Barita Investments, Caribbean Cement, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Producers, NCB Financial, PanJam Investment and Sagior Group.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market at the end of the last week are Jetcon Corporation followed by Main Event and Elite Diagnostic, but the list has changed and is now headed by Stationery and Office Supplies, followed by Elite Diagnostic and Medical Disposables with the potential to gain between 286 to 317 percent. The top three Main Market stocks remain unchanged, but in a slightly different order, with Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by VM Investments and PanJam Investment, with expected gains of 190 to 394 percent.
Knutsford Express
The Junior Market and the Main Market continue to get support from technical indicators that point to robust gains ahead. Added to the technical indicators is the limited supply of shares for some companies. One such is Caribbean Cream that currently has few offers on the board, the same goes for Elite Diagnostic, Stationery and Office Supplies, Lasco Financial, Main Event, ISP Financial, Cargo Handlers. In the Main Market, Berger Paints, Jamaica Producers and Radio Jamaica show limited supply in the market currently.
This week’s focus: Investors should key an eye on Consolidated Bakeries, Fosrich and Jamaica Producers, this week, all three stocks have very low supplies on offer currently. Lasco Manufacturing has a large volume on the bid at $4.50 at the close on Friday and should also be watched. Knutsford Express is not in our TOP 10, but the latest results show that a turnaround has started with the February quarter showing a moderate loss of a mere $1.7 million from sales that fell 42 percent from $318 million to $185 million. 
The results show a marked improvement over November when revenues fell from $283 million to $149 million with a loss of $34 million. The results for the latest quarter supports ICInsider.com’s forecast for the company to return to profit for the 2022 fiscal year.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. For reference, fiscal 2020-21 average PE ended at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market at the end of March 2021. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months.
The Junior Market, with an average PE 12.4 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.8 at just 46 percent of the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. 
The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 15.4, some distance from the 19 the market ended March at. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.3 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 252 percent and 185 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
