FX: US14M bought than sold

Friday, 14th June 2013 | The evidence is building to confirm than its not normal demand that is driving the rate of exchange for the Jamaican dollar. During the week ending Friday, authorised dealers bought the equivalent of US$14 more than they sold, with only Thursday’s trade when they bought US$200,000 more than they sold reflecting more demand than the amounts bought. Nevertheless, the rate of exchange climbed for all three major currencies during the week.

In Friday’s trading, US dollar buying by authorised dealers translated to US$2.2 million more than the amount sold but the average rate for buying and selling rose by 3 cents for buys and 30 cents selling. C$727,000 was purchased and C$570,000 sold as the average buying rate declined by 71 cents and selling rose by 15 cents. The Pound sterling rose $1.31 for buying and selling cost an average of $1.13 more than on Thursday. Overall, the equivalent of US$5 million more was purchased than the amount sold. Buying amounted to $25.54 million and selling $20.6 million.

Highest & lowest | On Friday, the highest rates climbed for all currencies with the US dollar rising by 50 cents but selling rates had no change over Thursday’s, the Canadian dollar rose $1.35 and the selling rate was up 16 cents and the Pound rose 95 cents and fell $2.99 on selling. The lowest rates saw no change in the US dollar while the Canadian rose 54 cent for buying and 60 cents for selling and the pound rose 17 cents buying and $3.30 selling. 

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Market demand is not driving J$, BOJ is

Over the last three weeks there has been more buying of foreign exchange by authorised dealers than selling, yet the Jamaican dollar has slipped in value. This is not the case of market forces determining the value of the currency, it is manipulation by the central bank to achieve a rate they are happy with. Take the case this week. So far, every day the buying of foreign exchange is more than the amount sold, yet the rates have slipped.

According to The Gleaner, the Governor of the central bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, while addressing journalists at a Jamaica House press briefing yesterday, said he understood the consternation of sections of the populace as the dollar eased past the J$100 to US$1 mark, but suggested that the dollar was finding its true value in a market-determined environment.

“We in Jamaica are operating a flexible exchange rate regime that is determined by the market and that is based on the principle that is determined by the market,” Wynter stressed.

Wynter signaled that he was unruffled as the movement of the local currency was consistent with the expectations of the Central Bank, operating under a flexible exchange rate regime, to which the Central Bank is committed. “The exchange falls within the boundary of the BOJ‘s forecast,” asserted Wynter.

USD_Clock150x150We understand that the central bank can’t give an indication of what is its intention with regards the rate of the Jamaican dollar, but to say that the rate is being market determined seems like a big joke when one examines what is taking place.

To be fair, the Governor did give a clear indication. As reported in the Jamaica Observer, the Governor said, “If you have a strong exchange rate that benefits the consumer that is going to make it progressively harder for exporters to compete in overseas markets. If you go the other route and have a too weak dollar you will reverse that picture but also have too much inflation in the domestic economy,” he said. “We have to find the right balance and the programme we are operating within at the moment is built on a balance that will best provide the conditions for export-led growth,” he added.

In short, it is our conclusive opinion that the central bank is the one intervening to move the rate — not normal market forces.

  1. The NIR is less than a billion at the end of May. One supposes that physiologically, building the NIR to over a billion dollars would be better ahead of the post-summer months when inflows are less and demand is higher.
  2. Next, is the other strange thing happening in the FX market. Authorized foreign exchange dealers are selling more foreign exchange than they are buying for the past two weeks, which make no sense. Why would they be selling from their inventory if there is going to be much higher rates down the road? Why are they tying up Jamaican dollars at relatively low interest rates if the benefits to be obtained by interest earned will be eroded by a depreciated dollar? The central bank confirmed that the CD issue that ended on the 7th of this month resulted in tighter Jamaican dollar liquidity and that BOJ bought foreign currency from the dealers. In this sense, BOJ is fully aware of what is happening and is clearly trying to beef up the foreign currency reserves. The BOJ has quickly, as the previous CD issue closed, issued two more to pull more foreign exchange out of the system.

Yes, it is supply and demand that’s driving the rate. But the demand is one that is based on the BOJ encouraging the rate to move up by buying the banks surplus funds at higher and higher rates.

Talk back | Do you agree that the BOJ is influencing the demand side of the equation?

FX: J$ reaches new low

Thursday, 13th June 2013 | The Jamaican dollar reached a new low in all currencies today as dealers sold the US dollar for 32 cents more than they did on Wednesday as they bought it for an average of 45 cents more. The Canadian dollar was bought by dealers at just 6 cents more and sold it for 86 cents more, than on Wednesday and for the pound it was selling 73 cents more but 96 cents less when they purchased.

The amount of the US currency actually purchased was slight more than the amount sold US$22.45 bought and US$21.95 sold. C$1.2 million was purchased and C$944,000 sold and for the pound sterling purchases amounted to £1 million and selling £1.4 million.

Closing selling rates were US dollar, J$100.782, Canadian dollar J$99.343 and pound sterling J$157.76.

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FX: Lowest US selling rate hiked $15.33

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Wednesday 12th June 2013 | The lowest selling rate for the US dollar jumped $15.33 to $97 in today’s trading. The highest buying rate also climbed but by a smaller $1.05. the highest rate for the pound climbed by 90 cents today and the lowest buying rates moved up $1.12 for the pound while the British currency was sold at the highest rate of $1.08 more than yesterdays $159.12 but the currency was sold at it lowest of $2 less than on Tuesday.

Once again, the amount of funds purchased exceeded the amounts sold as a total of $29.69 million US equivalent was purchased while selling amounted to US$28.3 million as all the rates moved up with the buying rates climbing the most for the Pound Sterling and Canadian Dollar by $1.02 and $1.58 respectively.

The selling rate for the US dollar inched up another 16 cents the same as yesterday and the Canadian 15 cents and the Pound 60 cents.

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FX: Buying exceeds sales

Tuesday, 11th June 2013 | A total of US$31.1 million of foreign was purchased in today’s foreign exchange trading and US$26.7 million sold, but $24.26 million in US dollars were purchased and $21.3 million were sold at an average rate of J$100.30, 16 cents more than on Monday. Buying took place 3 cents lower than on Monday at $99.41. Buying of the Canadian and the Pound were once more greater than the amounts sold.

The Canadian was purchased for 38 cents less and the Pound for $1.76 more than on Monday. Selling took place at 6 cents less for the Canadian and 70 cents more for the pound.

The highest buying rate for the US dollar actually fell marginally but the selling rates moved up to 21 cents for the highest sell rate and 26 cent for the highest sell rate. All the rates for the Canadian dollar rose noticeably while those for the Pound were mixed with the lowest selling rate rising $3 and the highest sell rate shedding $1.70.

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FX: Buying exceeds selling

Monday, 10th June 2013 | The selling of US dollars to purchase BOJ bond instruments seems to have come to a halt in Monday’s trading as the buying of foreign exchange exceeded selling for the first time since the week ending May 31. Authorized dealers purchased US$32.78 million and sold US $30.16 million. C$1.2 million was purchased and C$933,500 was sold. GBP1.9 million was purchased and GBP985,000 was sold.

All the rates moved up marginally except the buying rate of pound sterling which moved up quite a bit. The movements in rates were more moderate than on Friday.

The US dollar put on 19 cents on the buying side while just barely inching up 6 cents on the sell side. For the Canadian dollar it took 10 cents more to buy the dollar while selling cost 49 cents more and for pound sterling the buying rate rose by $1.57 to $153.18 and selling rose to $155.64, some 20 cents more.

On Friday the US$ buying rate increased by 22 cents and the selling rate was up 15 cents, while the Canadian dollar buying rate was up $1.60, and the selling rate gained  81 cents. Buying rate down $2.30, selling rates up $0.56.

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FX: BOJ buys as J$ hits $100 mark

Friday, 7th June 2013 | The Jamaican dollar hit the dreaded $100 mark to the US dollar on Friday but Bank of Jamaica seems to have been the major buyer of the foreign funds as opposed to serious speculation of the local dollar. The central bank, in response to an ICInsider query, stated, “please note that Jamaica Dollar liquidity conditions were constrained during last week (3-7 June), given fairly strong subscriptions to the longer tenors of BOJ instruments on offer. In that context, several institutions sold USD to BOJ to shore up their Jamaica Dollar positions.”

Trading patterns seemed odd for the past two weeks as the dealers bought US$17 million more in the week ending May 31 but sold substantially more than they bought in the week ending on Friday, in a scenario that did not appear to be buying pressure even as the average selling rate slipped to hit J$100 to the US dollar on Friday.

In a market where demand was greater that supply, dealers would most likely be selling what they purchased and not much more as occurred during the current week. This suggested that they were switching from foreign currency holdings to local currency and this was supported by the presence of the two bonds that were on the market with that objective in mind. The bonds that were put out by Bank of Jamaica was to tighten Jamaican dollar liquidity and pump more foreign currencies into the central bank coffers closed on Friday.

Dealers bought US$24.65 million on Friday and sold $37.97 million, they bought GBP2.35 million and sold GBP800,986 and sold C$866,000 while buying C$1.25 million.

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FX: US$ buying less than selling

Wednesday & Thursday, 6th & 7th June 2013

USD | Trading on the foreign exchange market has seen heavy buying of the US dollars by end users compared with much less buying by authorised dealers for the past four trading days. Thursday trades were no exception as $18.4 million US dollars were purchased while $33.8 million were sold. The rates moved up to an average of $99.04 on the buying side and $99.93 on the sell side up 21 cents for the day.

In Wednesdays trading, US$23.6 million were purchased and US$38.5 million were sold while the buying rate went up 27 cents to $98.99 and the sell rate climbed 12 cents to $99.72.

CND | The Canadian dollar climbed on the buying side by 24 cent to $95 but fell for selling by 15 cents to $97.09 with C$780,908 bought and C$516,282 sold.

On Wednesday C$685.658 was bought and C$451,935 sold with the buying rate falling by 88 cents to $94.76 and the selling rate rising to $97.24 up 35 cents.

GBP  | The Pound Sterling traded £3.18 million at a buying rate of $153.91 up $3.14 from Wednesday’s buying rate and £2.48 million was sold at an average rate of $154.88 up $2.10 on the day. On Wednesday £1.76 were purchased at an average arte of $150.77 up 70 cents from Tuesday and selling amounted to £501,000 at a rate of $152.77 up 35 cents.

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FX: US$ settles for now

Tuesday, 4th June 2013 | Trading levels moderated in the foreign exchange market with much less currency changing hands. The equivalent of US$27.9 million, were purchased and US$35.57 million sold. US$23 million were purchased at an average rate of $98.72 actually 16 cents less than on Monday and US$32.6 million sold at an average rate of $99.61, just one cent more than on Monday.

While the US dollar was pretty, dealers forked out $1.28 more on average for the Canadian dollar but they only sold it for 27 cents more than the day before and in the case of the Pound Sterling, it cost $1 more on both the buy and sell side to exchange the currency than on Monday.

Buying of Pound sterling and Canadian dollars exceeded the amounts that were sold for these currencies once again.

One US dollar was purchased as high as $100 and the highest sell rate stood at $104.49.

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Big day in FX market

Monday, 3rd June 2013 | It was a big day in the foreign exchange market today as selling out paced buying and the rates slipped with the US dollar close once more to the J$100 market with just 40 cents separating them on the sell side. In all, the total amount of currency traded amounted to the equivalent of US$46.5 million and they sold the equivalent of US$71 million.

US$42.7 million was purchased with US$69.1 million being sold. There was Can$1 million purchased with Can$691,000 sold. £1.66 million pounds were purchased and £1 million was sold. On average, it took 22 cents more to buy US dollars and selling took place at an average of 15 cents more. The authorised dealers bought the Canadian currency for 20 cents less on Monday that on Friday and they sold them at 13 cents more. For the Pound sterling dealers bought the pound at 72 cents more and sold for 11 cents more than on Friday. There was hardly any change to the highest and lowest rates for the US dollar. The Canadian dollar and the pound sterling mostly increased except for the lowest buying rate for the Canadian.

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