BUY RATED General Accident jumps 28%

The big news for the past week was a 28 percent jump in the price of General Accident shares, following the release of the first-quarter results. The stock last traded at $6.01 after rising to a high of $6.63 on Friday and dropped out of the Junior Market TOP 10.

General Accident is now out of IC TOP 10 with Q1 profit more than doubling.

During the week, investors pushed the Junior Market up 4 percent but barely moved the Main Market higher, with less than a percentage point rise. This trend is worth watching as bullish indicators point to more gains for Junior Market stocks going forward, with the latter being highly undervalued compared to the Main Market.
Medical Disposables rose from $6.20 at the start of the week to close at $7 and was the other stock to fall out of Junior Market, IC TOP 10. Coming into the TOP 10 are CAC2000 and Elite Diagnostic. The latter faced challenges in critical machine operation, resulting in lost income. Management stated that they “continue to have challenges getting the CT and MRI machines” at the St Ann branch operational. The company will hopefully resolve the problems soon so that the 2021 fiscal year can deliver optimally. Revenue for the 3rd quarter rose to $111.4 million, from $107 million the previous year and resulted in a loss of $2 million compared to a profit of $16 million the past year. In the Main Market, Proven Investments dropped out of the TOP 10 and replaced by Victoria Mutual Investments.
The three top Junior Market stocks with the potential to gain between 344 to 634 percent by 2021 are Caribbean Producers, followed by KLE Group and Lasco Financial. In the Main Market, Radio Jamaica continues to lead, followed by Berger Paints and JMMB Group with projected gains of 165 to 190 percent.
This week’s focus: General Accident reported profit rising 146 percent to $76 million, with investment and other income moving from just $7 million to $74 million. The report showed no cost-benefit from savings that could result from lower motor vehicle accident claims, from sharply reduced motor vehicle usage, since March. Gross Premiums written declined to $2.54 billion from $2.69 billion, but Net Premiums written increased to $689 million from $543 million. Claims rose to $448 million from $294 million in 2019. The December quarter usually generates the highest profit, with claims accounted for conservatively in the earlier quarters adjusted to reflect expected amounts. The new subsidiary, Trinidad based MotorOne Insurance made a small loss of $2 million in the quarter, an indication that not much contribution to profit is expected from it for the current year, it could add to 2021 profit for the group. Total assets of the company grew substantially since March last year from $7.5 billion to $12 billion in the current year, with liabilities rising by $3.5 billion.
Over at Jamaican Teas a report in the newspaper stated, “President of the Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association, JMEA, Richard Pandohie, says the coronavirus has opened trade doors that the sector had been knocking on for a long time.”
“On one level there have been great ­stories where those businesses have exploded in terms of exports. A lot of small manufacturers who are into natural juices, and natural products from cassava and natural spices have gone into markets that they have trying to do for years,” Pandohie told the Financial Gleaner.
One company that has seen an uptick in business, Jamaican Teas, had to lay on new work shifts and extra production days to keep up with export demand.
“Because of our product base, there’s been strong demand overseas to the extent that we’re doing over time, even on Saturdays, keeping up with the extra demand, said JamTeas CEO John Mahfood.
Although General Accident stock is now out of the Junior market IC TOP 10 listing, it boasts a PE ratio of just 7 versus the market average of 9.4 times this years’ earnings, an indication of potentially more upside for it.
The targeted average PE ratio of the market is 20 based on the profits of companies reporting full year’s results for the financial year ending after 2020 second quarter up to the second quarter in 2021. Both the Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below this level. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 14 and the Junior Market at just 9.4, based on current 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages a mere 5.2 with or 55 percent to the average of the overall Junior Market. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at 8.7 or 62 percent of the PE of the overall market.
The average projected gain for the IC TOP 10 stocks is 319 percent, for the Junior Market and 136 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings, an indication that there is potential to make greater gains in the Junior Market than in the Main Market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver some of the best returns up to March 2021. Forecasted earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year are used in determining potential gains. The ranking of stocks is in order of likely increases, with the highest-ranked, being the most attractive. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

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