Real GDP growth in the Jamaican economy is projected to be flat within the range of -0.5 per cent to 0.5 per cent for the June 2013 quarter. This follows five consecutive quarters of decline. This performance should reflect expansions in Mining & Quarrying and Construction offset by contractions in Hotels & Restaurants and Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing.
Mining & Quarrying should reflect an increase in the production of alumina following the resolution of mechanical problems at one of the plants during the June 2013 quarter. The expected increase in Construction is predicated on the commencement of work on the Linstead to Moneague leg of the Highway 2000 project as well as the Kingston & St Andrew Water Improvement Project and the Jamaica Development Infrastructure Programme. Other road improvement works are also expected across the island. The projected decline in Hotels & Restaurants primarily reflects the falloff in airlifts and the shifting of the Easter holiday. The central bank is however, forecasting growth for the fiscal year to March 2014.
Jamaica’s real GDP growth is projected within the range of 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent for FY2013/14. This projection is predicated on expansions in mining, implementation of planned infrastructure projects as well as improvements in confidence consequent on an agreement with the IMF. Following the arrangement with the IMF, a boost in foreign direct investment is anticipated to propel growth in the second half of FY2013/14. These factors should outweigh the contractionary effects of fiscal consolidation, the central bank stated.
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